{"msg": "872\nAXNT20 KNHC 040401\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Wed Nov 4 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0300 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nWestern Atlantic Gale Warning: A sharp trough is analyzed this\nevening from 26N65W to 22N68W. This development is associated \nwith an upper trough reaching from 32N70W through central Florida.\nRecent buoy observations and scatterometer satellite data showed \nfresh to strong NE to E winds between the trough and 1027 mb high\npressure over the western Atlantic near 37N65W. This pattern is \nsupporting a weak shear line along 25N. Concurrent altimeter data \nshowed 8-11 ft seas between the Bahamas and Bermuda. As the low \ndevelops through Wed, the pressure gradient is expected to yield \nnear-gale to gale-force NE to E winds beginning Wed afternoon, \nroughly over the waters from 29N to 31N between 63W and 69W. Seas \nare expected to build to 10-16 ft (3-5 m) with these winds through\nThu as the low pressure drifts east- northeastward. The low \npressure could acquire some subtropical characteristics late this \nweek as it continues to shift slowly E-NE across the sub-tropical \nAtlantic. Gale-force winds may continue across northern portions \nof this expected broad low pressure into late Sat.\n \nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html\nHeavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing \nover the northwestern Caribbean will interact with enhanced low-\nlevel moisture associated with broad cyclonic flow over the\nwestern Caribbean during the next several days. This will favor \nheavy precipitation developing across Central America, northern \nSouth America, as well as Jamaica tonight through Friday. The \nheaviest precipitation is expected across southern and western \nportions of Costa Rica, Panama, and Nicaragua, with the bulk of \nprecipitation occurring today through Thursday. Heavy rainfall \nwill lead to possible life-threatening flash flooding and \nlandslides. Please refer to your local weather agency and the \nInternational Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more \ndetails.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic from coast of Sierra\nLeone near 11N14.5W, and continues southwestward to 08N20W to \n06N22W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 06N25N \nto 09N60W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to\n10N between 20W and 45W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA broad trough extends from the northeast Gulf to the central\nGulf. Moderate to fresh SE winds and seas to 4 ft are active\nacross the Florida Big Bend area between the trough and 1027 mb\nhigh pressure off Virginia. Light to gentle breezes and 1-3 ft\nare noted elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, a cold front is entering the NW Gulf and will \ncontinue moving across the NW Gulf through Wed, then weaken and \ndissipate Wed night. Moderate northwest to north winds are \nexpected west of the front. Another cold front is expected to move\nacross the Gulf waters Fri through Sun night. Fresh to strong \nnorth winds will develop west of the front and west of 93W Sat and\nSun, with moderate north to northeast winds elsewhere behind the \nfront.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nDeep-layer troughing across the northwestern Caribbean supports \nscattered moderate to strong convection from 10N to 18N between \n70W and 82W. A broad 1009 mb low pressure area is centered over\nthe southwest Caribbean near 12N82W. This pattern is supporting\ngentle to moderate E winds over the eastern Caribbean with 3-5 ft\nseas, and light breezes over the western Caribbean with 1-3 ft\nseas. \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the area is\nsupporting moderate trade winds, along with moderate seas, over\nthe central and eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and\nslight to moderate seas are over the western Caribbean. The\npressure gradient will further loosen across the area by\nmidweek. This will diminish the moderate trades across the\ncentral and eastern Caribbean.  \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease see the Special Features section for information on a Gale\nWarning in the western Atlantic.\nAn upper trough reaches from 32N70W through central Florida. Scattered\nshowers and thunderstorms are active near 31N67W, southwest of \nBermuda, associated with the upper trough. Scattered showers and\nthunderstorms are also active over the eastern Straits of Florida\ninto the northern Bahamas. Scatterometer data and buoy\nobservations confirm fresh to strong winds north of a shear line\nalong 25N. Altimeter data indicates rough seas with these winds. \nFarther east, a stationary front extends from 1015 mb low pressure\nnear 29N36W to 25N55W. Fresh winds and 6-8 ft combined seas are\nevident north of this frontal boundary. Gentle to moderate winds\nand moderate seas persist elsewhere. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, broad low pressure is expected to \ndevelop along the frontal boundary southwest of Bermuda, roughly \nfrom 27N to 28N through Wed, and track slowly east-northeastward \nduring the rest of the week and the weekend. A broad zone of \nstrong to gale-force winds, and rough to very rough seas, peaking\nnear 16 ft, will develop north of the low pressure and expand \neastward Wed through Sun, impacting the waters mainly north of \nabout 27N. The gale-force winds will likely be north of 29N from \nWed afternoon through Sat night. A weakening cold front will move \nacross the waters between Florida and 75W Fri and Fri night, then \ndissipate Sat and Sat night. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1224522214698745859", "issued": "2026-11-04T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1224522214698745859"}