{"msg": "220\nAXPZ20 KNHC 040331\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Wed Nov 4 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0300 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHeavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing \nover the northwestern Caribbean extends southwestward across\nnorthern portions of Central America and into the tropical\neastern Pacific. This feature will interact with enhanced low- \nlevel moisture and onshore flow south of the monsoon trough over\nthe next several days. This will favor heavy precipitation \ndeveloping across Central America starting today and lasting \nthrough Friday. The heaviest precipitation is expected across \nsouthern and western portions of Costa Rica, Panama, and southern \nNicaragua, with the bulk of precipitation occurring today through\nThursday. Heavy rainfall may lead to life-threatening flash \nflooding and landslides. Please refer to your local weather \nagency and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction \nCenter for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 11N73W to 11N82W to low pres \nnear 08N90.5W 1009 mb to 04.5N94W to 08N115W to 04.5N127W to low\npres near 08N135.5W 1009 mb to beyond 05.5N140W. Scattered to \nlocally numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring from \n00N to 12N E of 96W, and from 02S to 13N between between 96W and\n140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nModerate to locally fresh NW winds are present on both sides of\nBaja California as high pressure builds southward toward the\nregion. Seas in the Gulf of California are 3 to 5 ft, with 5 to 7\nft in the offshore waters west of the peninsula. Elsewhere, \nacross the Mexican offshore waters, gentle winds prevail, with \nmoderate seas in SW swell.\nFor the forecast, high pressure W of Baja California will \nmaintain a ridge across the region, supporting moderate to fresh \nNW winds over the Gulf of California and Baja Surf waters through\ntonight, and across the Baja Norte waters through Wed night. \nLarge NW swell will build across the regional waters today and \ntonight, impacting the Baja waters through Thu. The next pulse of\nlarge NW swell will reach the Baja waters beginning early Fri. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nLow pressure of 1009 mb is along the monsoon trough near \n08N90.5W. A broad zone of moderate to fresh S to SW winds has \ndeveloped from the equator to the trough between 84W and 94W, \nand is producing scattered to numerous moderate to strong \nconvection from 00N to 12N E of 96W, impacting the near and \noffshore waters of Nicaragua and NW Costa Rica, as well as the \nwaters of Panama and Colombia. Seas across the area are generally\n5 to 8 ft in SW swell, and locally higher near thunderstorms. \nModerate or weaker winds are north of the monsoon trough, with \nseas of 5 to 7 ft, highest downstream of Papagayo.\nFor the forecast, low pressure along the monsoon trough near \n08N90.5W will gradually drift northeastward and slowly weaken \nthrough the end of the week, with associated winds and seas \nslowly abating. Very active showers and thunderstorms are \nexpected across the area for the next few days. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nA stationary front extends from 30N125W to 27N135W. S of the \nhigh, between 23N and the monsoon trough, fresh trades prevail W \nof 120W. Along the monsoon trough at 08N137W, a 1009 mb low \ncenter is helping to producing fresh to locally strong E winds \nwell to its north, extending to 22N, and scattered thunderstorms \nwithin 240 nm NW of the low. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds \nprevail. Large NW swell is propagating into the region, with seas\nof 9 to 13 ft now NW of the front, and seas to 8 ft and higher \nnow extending south to 10N and W of 120W. Elsewhere, moderate \nseas in mixed NW and SW swell prevail.\nFor the forecast, the front dissipate tonight. The associated NW\nswell will continue spreading through the region, bringing rough\nto very rough seas N of 08N and W of 115W through Wed night, \nbefore being reinforced by new swell starting early Thu. \nEnvironmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual \ndevelopment of the aforementioned low pressure near 08N137W, and\na tropical depression is likely to form during the latter \nportions of this week as it moves westward to west- northwestward\naround 10 kt, out of the Eastern Pacific basin, and into the \nCentral Pacific basin W of 140W. There is a low chance of \ntropical formation of this system over the next 48 hours and high\nchance over the next 7 days. Looking ahead, on Fri and Sat \nmerging NW and SE swell may produce 8-9 ft seas close to the \nequator. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1224516165173051395", "issued": "2026-11-04T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1224516165173051395"}