{"msg": "669\nAXNT20 KNHC 032302\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Wed Nov 4 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n2230 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nWestern Atlantic Gale Warning: Satellite imagery this evening\nsuggests that an area of low pressure is beginning to develop in\nthe vicinity of 27N67W, along an old frontal boundary that \nextends from 25.5N60W to 27N66W and through the central Bahamas. \nA very tight pressure gradient is developing between the low \npressure and 1030 mb high pressure to its north near 38N67W. As\nthe low develops tonight through Wed, the pressure gradient is \nexpected to yield near-gale to gale-force NE to E winds beginning\nWed afternoon, roughly over the waters from 29N to 31N between \n63W and 69W. Seas are expected to build to 10-16 ft (3-5 m) with \nthese winds through Thu as the low pressure drifts east- \nnortheastward. The low pressure could acquire some subtropical \ncharacteristics late this week as it continues to shift slowly\nE-NE across the sub-tropical Atlantic. Gale-force winds may\ncontinue across northern portions of this expected broad low\npressure into late Sat.\n \nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html\nHeavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing \nover the northwestern Caribbean will interact with enhanced low-\nlevel moisture associated with broad cyclonic flow over the\nwestern Caribbean during the next several days. This will favor \nheavy precipitation developing across Central America, northern \nSouth America, as well as Jamaica tonight through Friday. The \nheaviest precipitation is expected across southern and western \nportions of Costa Rica, Panama, and Nicaragua, with the bulk of \nprecipitation occurring today through Thursday. Heavy rainfall \nwill lead to possible life-threatening flash flooding and \nlandslides. Please refer to your local weather agency and the \nInternational Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more \ndetails.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic from coast of Sierra\nLeone near 09.5N13.5W, and continues southwestward to 06N19W to\n06N22W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 07N29N\nto 11N59W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is \noccurring E of 30W between 04N and 08N, and along and within 200 \nnm N of the ITCZ between 34W and 59W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nThe interaction between strong high pressure over the eastern \nUnited States and a trough over the northeastern Gulf is \nmaintaining fresh E to SE winds and seas of 4-6 ft over the NE \nGulf from offshore Tampa Bay to near Mobile Bay. Gentle to \nmoderate south to southeast winds and slight seas are elsewhere. \nScattered moderate convection is ongoing across the coastal \nwaters of west-central and southwest Florida. Scattered showers \nand thunderstorms are also moving into the SE Texas and SW \nLouisiana coastal waters, just ahead of a cold front still inland \nthere and an upper-level trough and moving across the central US.\nFor the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds over the NE \nGulf will shift north of the area tonight. A cold front will \nenter the NW Gulf tonight through Wed, then weaken and dissipate \nWed night. Moderate northwest to north winds are expected west of \nthe front. Another cold front is expected to move across the Gulf \nwaters Fri through Sun night. Fresh to strong N winds will \ndevelop west of the front and west of 93W Sat and Sun, with \nmoderate north to northeast winds elsewhere behind the front.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nDeep-layer troughing across the northwestern Caribbean supports \nscattered moderate to strong convection from 12N to 18N between \n74W and 84W. Scattered convection earlier this afternoon N of 20N\nand across large portions of Cuba has diminished in intensity this\nevening. In the SW Caribbean, broad cyclonic winds prevail W of\n76W and extend to near 20N. Elsewhere, the modest pressure \ngradient across the central and eastern basin supports only moderate\nto fresh trades and 4-6 ft seas. Gentle to moderate or weaker \nwinds and 2-4 ft seas prevail elsewhere across NW portions. \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin is \nsupporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds, along with \nmoderate seas, over the central and eastern Caribbean. Light to \ngentle winds and slight to moderate seas are over the western \nCaribbean. The pressure gradient will further loosen across the \narea by midweek as low pressure develops across the Atlantic S of\nBermuda. This will diminish the moderate trades across the \ncentral and eastern Caribbean. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease see the Special Features section for information on a Gale\nWarning in the western Atlantic.\nA frontal boundary is analyzed from a 1014 mb low near 31.5N35W \nto 27.5N40W to 25.5N60W, where it then transitions to a shear \nline that extends westward through the central Bahamas and to the \nFlorida Keys. Scattered moderate convection is occurring N of 22N\nbetween 50W and 68W. Winds quickly increase from gentle to \nmoderate trades S of the front and shear line to fresh to strong \nNE to E winds north of these features, due to strong high pressure\nto the north. Seas of 8-11 ft are seen N of the front and shear \nline between 58W and 77W, with 5-8 ft seas in NE swell south of \nthese features. Further to the east and north of the front, seas\nare 7 to 10 ft east of 50W. The remainder of the Atlantic is \nseeing gentle to moderate or weaker trade winds and seas of 4-7 \nft in N to NE swell. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure is centered \nnorth of Bermuda and extends a ridge W to E along 38N. Broad low \npressure is expected to develop along the frontal boundary \nsouthwest of Bermuda, roughly from 27N to 28N, tonight through \nWed, and track slowly east-northeastward during the rest of the \nweek and into the weekend. A broad zone of strong to gale- force \nwinds, and rough to very rough seas, peaking near 16 ft, will \ndevelop north of the low pressure and expand eastward Wed through \nSat, impacting the waters mainly north of about 27N. The gale- \nforce winds will likely be north of 29N from Wed afternoon through\nSat night. A weakening cold front will move across the waters \nbetween Florida and 75W Fri and Fri night, then dissipate Sat and \nSat night. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1224463350396026883", "issued": "2026-11-03T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1224463350396026883"}