{"msg": "526\nAXPZ20 KNHC 032026\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Tue Nov 3 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2000 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHeavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing \nover the northwestern Caribbean extends southwestward across\nnorthern portions of Central America and into the tropical\neastern Pacific. This feature will interact with enhanced low- \nlevel moisture and onshore flow south of the monsoon trough over\nthe next several days. This will favor heavy precipitation \ndeveloping across Central America starting today and lasting \nthrough Friday. The heaviest precipitation is expected across \nsouthern and western portions of Costa Rica, Panama, and southern \nNicaragua, with the bulk of precipitation occurring today through\nThursday. Heavy rainfall may lead to life-threatening flash \nflooding and landslides. Please refer to your local weather \nagency and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction \nCenter for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 11N73W to 11N82W to low pres \nnear 08N90.5W 1009 mb to 04.5N94W to 08N115W to 04.5N127W to low\npres near 08N135.5W 1009 mb to beyond 05.5N140W. Scattered to \nlocally numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring from \n00N to 12N E of 96W, and from 02S to 13N between between 96W and\n140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nModerate to locally fresh N-NW winds continue through the full \nlength of the Gulf of California this afternoon, and extend to \nLas Tres Marias, as high pressure is building toward the region,\nahead of an approaching cold front. Seas in the Gulf are 2 to 4 \nft north portions and 4 to 6 ft across the southern half to \noffshore of Las Tres Marias. Mainly moderate N-NW to N winds \nprevail across the Baja offshore waters, with fresh winds near \nthe coast of Baja Sur. New NW swell is entering the regional \nwaters, building seas to 6 to 8 ft across the Baja Norte waters \nand 5 to 7 ft across the Baja Sur waters. Elsewhere, across the \nMexican offshore waters, gentle winds prevail, with moderate \nseas in SW swell.\nFor the forecast, high pressure W of Baja California will\nmaintain a ridge across the region, supporting moderate to fresh\nNW winds over the Gulf of California and Baja Surf waters \nthrough this evening, and across the Baja Norte waters through \nWed night. Large NW swell will build across the regional waters \ntoday and tonight, impacting the Baja waters through Thu. The \nnext pulse of large NW swell will reach the Baja waters beginning\nearly Fri. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nLow pressure of 1009 mb is along the monsoon trough near \n08N90.5W. A broad zone of moderate to fresh S to SW winds has \ndeveloped from the equator to the trough between 84W and 94W, \nand is producing scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong\nconvection from 00N to 12N E of 96W, impacting the near and\noffshore waters of Nicaragua and NW Costa Rica, as well as the\nwaters of Panama and Colombia. Seas across the area are \ngenerally 5 to 8 ft in SW swell, and locally higher near \nthunderstorms. Moderate or weaker winds are north of the monsoon \ntrough, with seas of 5 to 7 ft, highest downstream of Papagayo.\nFor the forecast, the low pressure along the monsoon trough will\ngradually drift northeastward and slowly weaken through the end \nof the week, with associated winds and seas slowly abating. \nVery active showers and thunderstorms are expected across the\narea waters for the next few days. See the Special Features\nSection above.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nA stalling cold front extends from 30N127W to 26N140W. Ahead of \nit, a weak 1023 mb high is centered near 27N130W. Behind the \nfront, moderate N to NE winds are present. S of the high, \nbetween 23N and the monsoon trough, moderate to locally fresh \ntrades prevail W of 115W. Along the monsoon trough at 08N135.5W,\na 1009 mb low center is helping to producing fresh E winds well\nto its north, extending to 22N, and scattered thunderstorms\nwithin 240 nm NW of the low. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds \nprevail. Large NW swell is propagating into the region, with seas\nof 9 to 13 ft now N of the front, and seas to 8 ft and higher \nnow extending south to 12N and W of 125W. Elsewhere, moderate \nseas in mixed NW and SW swell prevail.\nFor the forecast, the front will become stationary tonight and\ndissipate. The associated NW swell will continue spreading \nthrough the region, bringing rough to very rough seas N of 10N \nand W of 115W through mid-week, before being reinforced by new \nswell starting early Thu. Environmental conditions appear \ngenerally favorable for gradual development of the aforementioned\nlow pressure near 08N135.5W, and a tropical depression is likely\nto form during the middle to latter portions of this week as it \nmoves westward to west-northwestward around 10 kt, out of the \nEastern Pacific basin, and into the Central Pacific basin W of \n140W. There is a low chance of tropical formation of this system \nover the next 48 hours and high chance over the next 7 days. \nLooking ahead, on Fri and Sat merging NW and SE swell may \nproduce 8-9 ft seas close to the equator. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1224432676011507715", "issued": "2026-11-03T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1224432676011507715"}