{"msg": "572\nAXNT20 KNHC 031713\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Tue Nov 3 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1700 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nWestern Atlantic Gale Warning: Broad low pressure is expected to \ndevelop tonight along an old frontal boundary that extends from \n25N60W to the central Bahamas, near 26N between 65W and 70W. A \nvery tight pressure gradient between the low pressure and strong \nhigh pressure to its north is expected to induce near-gale to \ngale-force northeast to east winds beginning Wed afternoon, \nroughly over the waters from 29N to 31N between 63W and 69W. Seas \nare expected to build to 10-16 ft (3-5 m) with these winds \nthrough Thu as the low pressure drifts east-northeastward. The low\npressure could acquire some subtropical characteristics late this\nweek.\n \nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html\nHeavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing \nover the western Caribbean will interact with enhanced low-level \nmoisture and onshore flow over the next several days. This will \nfavor heavy precipitation developing across Central America, \nnorthern South America, as well as Jamaica starting today and \nlasting through Friday. The heaviest precipitation is expected \nacross southern and western portions of Costa Rica, Panama, and \nNicaragua, with the bulk of precipitation occurring today through \nThursday. Heavy rainfall will raise concerns for life-threatening \nflash flooding and landslides. Please refer to your local weather \nservices and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction \nCenter for more details.\n\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic from coast of Guinea \nnear 11N15W, and continues southwestward to 06N21W, where it \ntransitions to the ITCZ and continues to 09N61W. Scattered \nmoderate and isolated strong convection is occurring E of 20W\nbetween 03N and 14N. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms\nare also occurring along and within 200 nm N of the ITCZ.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nThe interaction between strong high pressure over the eastern \nUnited States and a trough over the southern and eastern Gulf is \nmaintaining fresh to strong northeast to east winds and seas of \n4-6 ft over the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate southeast to east \nwinds and slight seas are elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection\nis ongoing along the eastern end of a surface trough in the Gulf,\nwhile more scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring \noffshore south-central Louisiana as an upper-level trough moves \nacross the central US.\nFor the forecast, fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds\nover the NE Gulf will shift north of the area today. A cold front\nwill enter the NW Gulf tonight through Wed, then weaken and \ndissipate Wed night. Moderate to fresh northwest to north winds \nare expected west of the front. Another cold front is expected to \nmove into the NW Gulf waters Fri through Sat night, followed by \nmoderate to fresh northeast winds.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nDeep-layer troughing in the western Caribbean supports scattered\nmoderate to strong convection N of 15N between 74W and 83W. In the\nSW Caribbean, the influences from a surface trough and the East \nPacific monsoon trough are combining to support scattered moderate\nconvection S of 14N and W of 80W. Elsewhere, the pressure\ndifference between surface ridging across the Atlantic and lower\npressure over Colombia supports moderate to fresh trades and 4-6\nft seas across much of the central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle\nto moderate or weaker winds and 2-5 ft seas prevail elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the area is \nsupporting moderate trade winds, along with moderate seas, over \nthe central and eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and \nslight to moderate seas are over the western Caribbean. The \npressure gradient will further loosen across the area by midweek. \nThis will diminish the moderate trades across the central and \neastern Caribbean. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease see the Special Features section for information on a Gale\nWarning in the western Atlantic.\nA frontal boundary is analyzed from a 1016 mb low near 31N36W to\n28N39W to 26N60W, where it then transitions to a shear line that\nextends westward through the central Bahamas and to the SE FL \ncoast. Scattered moderate convection is occurring N of 22N between\n55W and 66W. Winds quickly increase from gentle to moderate \ntrades S of the front and shear line to fresh to strong speeds N \nof these features. Seas of 8-11 ft are seen N of the front and \nshear line as well, with 5-8 ft seas S of these features. The \nremainder of the Atlantic is seeing gentle to moderate or weaker \ntrade winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, an old frontal boundary extends \nfrom near 26N55W westward to 26N60W, then becomes a shear line to \n27N70W and to the central Bahamas near 25N78W. Strong high \npressure is centered north of Bermuda. The pressure gradient \nbetween these features will support widespread fresh to strong \nnortheast to east winds and rough seas to 11 ft north of the \nfrontal boundary and shear line west of about 60W today. Broad low\npressure is expected to develop along the frontal boundary \nsouthwest of Bermuda, roughly from 27N to 28N, tonight through \nWed, and track slowly east- northeastward during the rest of the \nweek. A broad zone of strong to gale-force winds, and rough to \nvery rough seas, peaking near 16 ft, will develop north of the low\npressure and expand eastward Wed through Fri, impacting the \nwaters mainly north of about 27N. The gale- force winds will \nlikely be north of 29N from Wed afternoon through early Fri. A \nweakening cold front will move across the waters between Florida \nand 75W Fri and Fri night, then dissipate Sat and Sat night. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1224394709651128323", "issued": "2026-11-03T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1224394709651128323"}