{"msg": "518\nAXPZ20 KNHC 031511\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Tue Nov 3 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1440 UTC.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N70W to low pres near\n08.5N89.5W 1009 mb to 05.5N94W to 05.5N127W to low pres near \n08.5N136W 1008 mb to beyond 05.5N140W. Scattered to locally\nnumerous moderate to strong convection is occurring from 01N to \n10.5N E of 100W, and from 02S to 11N between between 104W and \n140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nModerate to fresh N-NW winds continue through the full length of\nthe Gulf of California this morning, and extend to offshore of\nCabo Corrientes, as high pressure is building toward the region,\nahead of an approaching cold front. Seas in the gulf are 2 to 4 \nft north portions and 4 to 6 ft across the southern half to\noffshore of Cabo Corrientes. Moderate N-NW to N winds prevail\nelsewhere across the Baja offshore waters, with fresh winds near\nthe coast of Baja Sur. New NW swell is entering the regional\nwaters, building seas to 6 to 8 ft across the Baja Norte waters\nand 5 to 6 ft across the Baja Sur waters. Elsewhere, across the \nMexican offshore waters, gentle NW to N winds prevail, with \nmoderate seas in SW swell.\nFor the forecast, high pressure W of Baja California will \nsupport fresh NW winds over the Gulf of California today and \noffshore Baja California through Wed night. Large NW swell will \nbuild across the regional waters today and tonight, impacting \nthe Baja waters through Thu. The next pulse of large NW swell \nwill reach the Baja waters beginning Thu night. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nLow pressure of 1009 mb has formed along the monsoon trough near\n08.5N89.5W. A broad zone of moderate to fresh S to SW winds has\ndeveloped from the equator to the trough E of 94W, and is\nproducing scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong \nconvection from 01N to 10.5N E of 100W, and is impacting the\nnear shore waters from Papagayo to coastal Colombia. Seas across\nthe area are generally 5 to 8 ft in SW swell, and locally higher\nnear thunderstorms. Moderate or weaker winds are north of the\nmonsoon trough, with seas of 5 to 7 ft, highest downstream of\nPapagayo.\nFor the forecast, the low pressure along the monsoon trough will\ngradually drift northward and weaken through the end of the week,\nwith associated winds and seas slowly abating. Active showers \nand thunderstorms are expected through Wed.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nA stalling cold front extends from 30N131W to 26.5N140W. Ahead \nof it, a weak 1021 mb high is centered near 28N128W. Behind the \nfront, moderate N to NE winds are present. S of the high, \nextending to the monsoon trough, moderate to locally fresh trades\nprevail. Along the monsoon trough at 08.5N136W, a 1008 mb low \ncenter is producing fresh E winds in its northern semicircle,\nextending to 20N, and scattered thunderstorms. Elsewhere, light \nto gentle winds prevail. Large NW swell is propagating into the \nregion, with seas of 10 to 13 ft now N of the front, and seas to\n8 ft and higher now extending south to 15N and W of 128W. \nElsewhere, moderate seas in mixed NW and SW swell prevail.\nFor the forecast, the front will become fully stationary today\nthen dissipate tonight. The associated NW swell will continue \nspreading through the region, bringing rough to very rough seas \nN of 10N and W of 115W through mid-week, before being reinforced \nby new swell starting Thu. Environmental conditions appear \ngenerally favorable for gradual development of the aforementioned\nlow pressure near 08.5N136W, and a tropical depression is likely\nto form during the middle to latter portions of this week as it \nmoves westward to west-northwestward around 10 kt, out of the \nEastern Pacific basin, and into the Central Pacific basin W of\n140W. There is a low chance of tropical formation of this system\nover the next 48 hours and high chance over the next 7 days. \nLooking ahead, on Fri and Sat combined NW and SE swell may \nproduce 8-9 ft seas close to the equator. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1224370717552410627", "issued": "2026-11-03T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1224370717552410627"}