{"msg": "489\nAXNT20 KNHC 031144\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Tue Nov 03 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1130 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nWestern Atlantic Gale Warning: Broad low pressure is expected to \ndevelop along an old frontal boundary that extends from 26N55W to \nthe central Bahamas starting Tue night, near 26N between 65W and \n70W. A very tight pressure gradient between the low pressure and \nstrong high pressure to its north is expected to induce near gale to \ngale-force northeast to east winds beginning Wed afternoon, roughly \nover the waters from 29N to 31N between 63W and 69W. Seas are \nexpected to build to 10 to 16 ft (3 to 5 m) with these winds through \nThu as the low pressure drifts east-northeastward. The low pressure \ncould acquire some subtropical characteristics late this week.\n \nPlease read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic from coast of Guinea-\nBissau near 12N16W, and continues southwestward to 07N21W and to \n09N35W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N44W and to the \ncoast of Guyana near 06.5N57.5W. Scattered moderate convection is\nwithin 120 nm north of the trough and the ITCZ between 29W and \n40W and also between 45W-52W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nThe interaction between strong high pressure over the eastern \nUnited States and relatively lower pressure related to a trough \nover the eastern Gulf is maintaining fresh to strong northeast to \neast winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft over the NE Gulf. Gentle to \nmoderate northeast to east winds are elsewhere, except for\ngentle to moderate southeast winds west of about 92W.\nScattered showers and thunderstorms persist over the Straits of\nFlorida and southeastern Gulf as a surface trough is nearby, and \nwhile a mid to upper level trough continues over that same \ngeneral area of the Gulf.\nFor the forecast, the fresh to strong northeast to east winds\nover the NE Gulf will gradually shift northward and inland \nthrough this evening. A cold front is forecast to reach along the\nTexas coast late this afternoon, and move out over the NW Gulf \ntonight through Wed, followed briefly by moderate to fresh \nnorthwest to north winds. The front will then weaken and dissipate\nWed night. Another cold front is expected to slowly move into the\nNW Gulf waters Fri through Sat night, followed by moderate to \nfresh northeast winds.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nA mid to upper-level trough over the northwestern Caribbean is \nsupporting scattered showers and thunderstorms between 75W and 83W. \nHigh pressure over the western Atlantic is supporting moderate \ntrades along with seas of 3 to 6 ft seas across the central eastern \nCaribbean, except for fresh trades south of 15N between 68W and 72W. \nOvernight Ascat scatterometer data indicates gentle trades over the \nwestern portion of the basin. Seas are 1 to 3 ft with these trades.\nFor the forecast, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas \nacross the central and eastern Caribbean will continue today. The \npressure gradient across the region will then relax Tue night \nthrough Sat as broad low pressure forms along the trough to the SW\nof Bermuda and shifts east-northeastward throughout the week, \nleading to overall lighter winds and diminishing seas across the \nCaribbean basin. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\na recently issued Gale Warning for a portion of the western \nAtlantic.\nA 1016 mb low is over the far northeast part of the discussion \narea near 31N36W. A cold front extends from the low to near \n29N38W, then transitions to a stationary front to 28N45W to 27N50W\nand to 26N60W, where it transitions to a shear line to 27N70W and\nto the central Bahamas near 25N78W. A tight pressure gradient \nbetween the stationary front/shear line and strong high pressure \nof 1030 mb centered north of Bermuda at 38N63W is sustaining \nwidespread fresh to strong northeast to east winds north of the \nfront and shear line. Seas with these winds are 8-11 ft Over the \ndeep tropics, a trough is near 50W from 14N to 22N. Isolated \nshowers and thunderstorms are east of the trough from 17N to 20N \nbetween 46W and 49W. In the far eastern Atlantic, a trough, \nremnants of a former frontal system, is analyzed from near \n29.5N32W to 27N24W, curving northeastward through the Canary \nIslands and to near 30N12.5W. No significant convection is \noccurring with this feature. Gentle to moderate trades along with \nseas of 5 to 7 ft are present are over the eastern Atlantic south \nof the above mentioned cold and stationary front, with the \nexception of mostly fresh trades south of 20N between 50W and the \nLesser Antilles. Seas over these waters are 4 to 6 ft per latest \naltimeter satellite data, and observations from a few Sofar Spotter \nbuoys over these same waters. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned fresh to strong \nnortheast to east winds north of the stationary front and shear \nline will continue through today west of about 60W along with seas\npeaking to around 11 ft. Broad low pressure is expected to \ndevelop along the frontal boundary southwest of Bermuda, roughly \nfrom 27N to 28N, tonight through Wed, and track slowly east- \nnortheastward during the rest of the week. A broad zone of strong \nto gale-force winds, and rough to very rough seas, peaking to \naround 16 ft, will develop north of the low pressure and expand \neastward Wed through Fri, impacting the waters mainly north of \nabout 27N. The gale- force winds will likely be north of 29N from \nWed afternoon through Thu evening. A weakening cold front will \nslowly move across the waters between Florida and 75W Fri and Fri \nnight, dissipating Sat and Sat night. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1224330094302789635", "issued": "2026-11-03T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1224330094302789635"}