{"msg": "717\nAXNT20 KNHC 021019\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Mon Nov 02 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1015 UTC.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of \nAfrica near 16N167W, and continues west-soutwhestward to 10N30W,\nwhere it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N44W and to 07N59W. Scattered\nmoderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N to 14N between\n16W-28W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of\nthe ITCZ between 33W-45W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nThe pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern U.S.\nand lower pressure south of the area is sustaining fresh to \nstrong northeast to east winds over the NE Gulf. Moderate seas \nare with these winds. An upper-level trough continues to \nsupport scattered to numerous convection east of 86W. Elsewhere,\nmostly light to gentle winds are over the rest of the basin along\nwith seas of 2 to 4 ft.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure \nover the eastern U.S. and lower pressure south of the area will \nmaintain fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas through the NE Gulf\nthrough Mon night. A cold front will reach along the Texas coast \nTue afternoon, and move out over the NW Gulf Tue night into early \nWed, followed by moderate to fresh northwest to north winds. The \nfront will weaken as it slowly moves across the basin through Thu,\nthen across Florida Thu night into Fri. In its wake, weak high \npressure will settle in over the region through Fri night. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nModerate to fresh trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft continue across \nthe central and eastern Caribbean per overnight Ascat scatterometer\ndata, buoy observations and altimeter satellite data. Gentle to \nmoderate winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, prevail elsewhere. \n  \nFor the forecast, moderate to fresh trades along with moderate \nseas over the central and eastern Caribbean will continue through \nTue night. The pressure gradient will relax starting Mon night as \nbroad low pressure forms north of the area, leading to overall \nweaker winds and diminishing seas for the remainder of the week.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA coastal trough is analyzed from just north of the area at \n32N80W south to near 27N80W. Strong to near-gale force winds \nprevail north of 27N and west of 70W, associated with a tight \ngradient between the trough and high pressure of 1033 mb well N of\nthe area just offshore New England. Overnight altimeter data \nindicated rough seas in the 8 to 10 ft range over these waters. \nOvernight Ascat scatterometer data reveals fresh to strong \nnortheast to east winds north of a cold front that extends from \nnear 31N41W southwestward to 28N48W, where it becomes stationary \nto near 25N60W, and continues as a frontal trough to near 24N77W. \nScattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is \nseen from 22N to 27N between 64W and 72W. Scattered moderate \nconvection is within 120 nm north of the trough between 59W and \n64W, and within 60 nm of the stationary front west of 48W. Farther\neast, a trough extends from 31N26.5W to 27N22W and to near \n22N22W. Fresh northwest winds and seas to 8 ft are west of the \nfront to near 31W. Gentle to moderate trades along with seas of 4 \nto 6 ft are elsewhere.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will continue \nthrough Tue night as high pressure builds across the northern and\ncentral waters. The resulting pressure gradient will lead to\nwidespread fresh to strong northeast to east winds and rough seas\nto around 10 ft north of about 27N and west of 60W. Broad low \npressure is expected to gradually develop along the western edge \nof the stationary front beginning late Tue and slowly track \nnorthward later in the week. Fresh to near gale winds along with \nrough to very rough seas, possibly peaking to around 14 ft, will \nexpand eastward beyond Wed impacting the waters mainly N of about \n27N. A cold front will slowly move across the waters between \nFlorida and 77W Fri and Fri night, but is expected not to have \nsignificant impacts on winds and seas. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1224030242722480131", "issued": "2026-11-02T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1224030242722480131"}