{"msg": "418\nAXNT20 KNHC 011025\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Sun Nov 01 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1015 UTC.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic through the coast of\nW Africa near 15N17W, and continues southwestward to 13N20W, \nwhere it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ then continues to \n08N35W and to 08N58W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong\nconvection is seen from 06N to 13N between 16W-25W. Scattered \nmoderate convection is within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 25W-34W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nFresh to strong east winds are over the NE Gulf along with seas \nof 4 to 6 ft. An upper-level shortwave trough as seen on \nwater vapor imagery is shifting eastward across the NE Gulf. \nIncreasing scattered to numerous thunderstorms are present north \nof 24N between 83W and 89W. This activity is being sustained by \ndivergence aloft to the east of the shortwave trough. This \nactivity is capable of producing strong gusty winds and heavy \nrainfall. Outside of the NE Gulf gusty winds produced by the \nshower and thunderstorm activity, overnight Ascat scatterometer \ndata and buoy observations generally reveal light to gentle winds \nacross the basin. \nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient related to the strong \nhigh pressure ridging southward along the southeastern U.S. \nseaboard will maintain moderate to fresh northeast to east winds \nand moderate seas across the north-central and NE Gulf through Mon\nnight. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Tue as a warm\nfront develops over the NE Gulf. The warm front will slowly move\nnortheastward away from the area Tue through Wed as the cold\nfront slowly moves eastward across the Gulf, providing for areas\nof moderate winds and seas. The cold front will then weaken over\nthe eastern Gulf Thu and Thu night while weak high pressure then\nbuilds over the western Gulf.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nThe pressure gradient between higher pressure over the U.S. and \nthe western Atlantic, and lower pressure over Colombia supports \nfresh trades along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in the south- central \nCaribbean offshore Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades and seas \nof 4 to 6 ft are across the remainder of the central and eastern \nCaribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are elsewhere.\nDivergent flow aloft on the eastern side of a broad upper-level \ntrough that stretches from the central Atlantic southwestward to \nthe central Caribbean and to just north of Colombia is sustaining \nscattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the eastern\nportion of the basin, and isolated showers and thunderstorms over\nthe central portion.\n  \nFor the forecast, the moderate to fresh trades over the central \nand eastern Caribbean, and moderate to rough seas, will continue \nthrough Mon, with some areas of strong winds near the coast of \nColombia and NW Venezuela. Winds and seas are expected to diminish\nbasin-wide late Mon through Thu as broad low pressure with a \nrelaxed pressure gradient gradually develops and then persists \nacross the Atlantic NE of the Bahamas. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA cold front extends from near 31N48W southwestward to 26N62W, and \ncontinues as a stationary front to 24N70W. Satellite imagery \nshows increasing numerous thunderstorms along and within 60 nm \nnorth of the frontal boundary between 58W and 62W, and also \nto west from 24N to 27N between 62W and 80W. Scattered moderate \nconvection is within 180 nm southeast of the boundary east of 58W.\nA secondary cold front extends from 31N60W to 30N69W. No\nsignificant convection is presently occurring with this front.\nFresh to strong northeast to east winds along with seas of \n7 to 9 ft are northwest of the first front, and also north of \n24N west of 62W. Farther east, low pressure of 1011 mb is north \nof the area west of Madeira near 33N29W, with a cold front \nextending from it to 29N19W and to near 23N27W. An area of \nscattered moderate convection is east of this front to the along \nand inland the coast of Africa north of 22N. Moderate to fresh\nnorth winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft in north swell are behind the \nfront north of 23N between 20W and 39. Gentle to moderate winds\nand seas of 4 to 6 ft are elsewhere across the basin.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will weaken this \nafternoon into this evening while it moves southeastward as high \npressure in its wake builds across the western Atlantic. Mariners \ncan expect widespread areas of fresh to locally strong northeast \nto east winds along with rough seas to near 11 feet from Mon night\nthrough Tue night over the waters N of about 26N and W of about \n60W. The front is forecast to become nearly stationary near today \nthrough Mon night. A warm front will develop over the NE Gulf Tue,\nand move northeastward across the SW north Atlantic Wed. As the \nhigh pressure off of the U.S. east coast gradually shifts east, a \nweakening cold front will approach from the eastern Gulf Thu, then\nmove offshore of Florida late Thu night. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1223748350527242243", "issued": "2026-11-01T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1223748350527242243"}