{"msg": "809\nAXNT20 KNHC 010400\nTWDAT\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Sun Nov 1 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0350 UTC.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic through the coast of\nW Africa near 13N17W, and continues southwestward to 13N20W, \nwhere it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ then continues to \n07N35W and then to 09N60W. Scattered moderate convection is \ndepicted within 90 nm either side of the ITCZ between 20W and 50W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh NE to E winds\nacross the northeast Gulf, south of 1032 mb over Virginia. A \nconcurrent altimeter indicated 4-6 ft seas in northeast Gulf as\nwell. Scattered showers and tstms are noted over the eastern \nGulf due to a combination of abundant Atlantic moisture,\nconvergentwinds and divergent flow aloft. Light to gentle \nbreezes and 2-4 ft are noted elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient related to the strong \nhigh pressure ridging southward along the southeastern U.S. \nseaboard will maintain moderate to fresh northeast to east winds \nand moderate seas across the north-central and NE Gulf through Mon\nnight. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Tue as a warm \nfront develops over the NE Gulf. The warm front will slowly move \nnortheastward away from the area Tue through Wed as the cold front\nslowly moves eastward across the Gulf, providing for areas of \nmoderate winds and seas. The cold front will then weaken over the \neastern Gulf Thu and Thu night while weak high pressure then \nbuilds over the western Gulf. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nThe pressure gradient between higher pressure over the U.S. and \nthe western Atlantic, and lower pressure over Colombia supports \nfresh trades along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in the south- central \nCaribbean offshore Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades and 3 to 6 \nft seas prevail across the remainder of the central and eastern \nCaribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are elsewhere.\nDivergent flow aloft on the eastern side of an upper low north of\nColombia is supporting scattered moderate convection over the \ncentral and eastern Caribbean. \n  \nFor the forecast, moderate to fresh trades over the central and\neastern Caribbean, and moderate to rough seas, will continue\nthrough Mon, with some areas of strong winds near the coast of\nColombia and NW Venezuela. Winds and seas are expected to\ndiminish basin-wide late Mon through Thu as broad low pressure\nwith a relaxed pressure gradient gradually develops and then\npersists across the Atlantic NE of the Bahamas. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nScattered showers and a few thunderstorms are active along a cold\nfront reaching from 31N51W to 25N63W, and along a dissipating\nstationary front into the central Bahamas. Fresh to strong NE to E\nwinds and moderate to rough seas are noted north of the front.\nFarther east, scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed\nalong a cold front from 1012 mb low pressure west of Madeira near\n33N21W to 26N21W and continues as a stationary front to 21N30W.\nModerate N winds and moderate N swell of 6 to 9 ft follow the \nfront north of 23N between 20W and 40W. Gentle to moderate winds \nand 4 to 6 ft combined seas are noted elsewhere across the\nAtlantic south of 31N. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will weaken through \nSun while it moves southeastward as high pressure in its wake \nbuilds across the western Atlantic. To the south of the high, \nmariners can expect widespread areas of fresh to locally strong \nnortheast to east winds, and rough seas to near 11 feet from Mon \nnight and into Tue. The front is forecast to become nearly \nstationary near 25N Sun through Mon night. A warm front will \ndevelop over the NE Gulf Tue, and move northeastward across the SW\nnorth Atlantic Wed. As the high pressure off of the U.S. east \ncoast gradually shifts east, a weakening cold front will approach \nfrom the eastern Gulf Thu, then move offshore of Florida late Thu \nnight. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1223672572103720963", "issued": "2026-11-01T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1223672572103720963"}