{"msg": "748\nAXNT20 KNHC 311105\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Sat Oct 31 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1045 UTC.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic through the coast of\nW Africa near 12N16W, and continues southwestward to 08N22W, where\nit transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ then continues to 06N40W and \nto 09N60W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of\nthe the trough between 20W and 25W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nThe pressure gradient between high pressure over the southeastern\nUnited States and relatively lower pressure to its south is\nsupporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate\nseas across the northeast and north-central Gulf. Moderate seas\nare with these winds. Overnight Ascat scatterometer data passes \nand recent buoy observations show light to gentle winds elsewhere.\nSlight seas are elsewhere as well. The Ascat scatterometer data \npasses suggest that a trough is along the position from 24N96W to \n20N91W. An upper-level shortwave trough acting on present ample \nmoisture has triggered off scattered moderate convection offshore \nLouisiana and northeastern Texas, north of about 26N and west of \n90W.\nFor the forecast, the moderate to fresh northeast to east winds \nand moderate seas across the northeast and north-central Gulf\nwill increase to fresh to strong speeds late tonight and continue \ninto Mon. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to enter the NW\nGulf Tue night, and move slowly southeastward reaching the east- \ncentral Gulf by Wed night, followed by mostly fresh northwest to \nnorth winds. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nThe pressure gradient between higher pressure over the Gulf of\nAmerica and the western Atlantic, and lower pressure over \nColombia supports fresh to strong trades along with seas of \n7 to 9 ft in the south-central Caribbean offshore Colombia. \nModerate to fresh trades and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail across the \nremainder of the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker\nwinds and slight seas are elsewhere. Otherwise, a trough that is \nanalyzed from 19N80W to 14N82W and to just north of northern \nPanama is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms south of \n14N between 79W and the coast of Central America. Scattered \nshowers and isolated thunderstorms are from 14N to 19N between 78W\nand 82W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are south of 13N \nbetween 72W and 79W, over the eastern Caribbean from 14N to 16N\nbetween 62W and 67W, and also south of 17N between 67W and 72W.\nFor the forecast, the moderate to fresh trades over the central \nand eastern Caribbean will continue through Mon, with small areas of \nstrong winds near the coast of Colombia and NW Venezuela. Winds \nand seas are expected to diminish basin-wide late Mon through Wed \nas broad low pressure develops across the Atlantic well to the NE \nof the Bahamas. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA frontal boundary extends from 31N58W to 28N62W and to near \n24N71W while high pressure to its northwest builds southward \nacross the western Atlantic. A warm front is analyzed from \n31N51W to 24N47W. A trough is ahead of the frontal boundary from\n31N56W to 29N59W. Increasing scattered to numerous moderate \nconvection is ahead of the boundary reaching to a line from \n31N53W to 25N62W. Fresh to strong southerly winds are ahead of the\nfrontal boundary to near 45W and north of 29N. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are \nwith these winds as noted by Sofar Ocean Spotter buoys in the area. \nModerate to fresh north-northeast winds are northwest of the front, \nexcept for fresh to strong northwest to north of 30N between the \nfront and 63W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft northwest of the front, except for \nhigher seas of 8 to 10 ft north of 30N between the front and 63W. \nOver the far eastern part of the basin, a cold front extends from a \n1012 mb low that is near 32N24W, south-southwestward to 28N23W and \nto near 23N341W, where it becomes stationary to 22N41W, and \ndissipating stationary from there to 22N45W. Fresh to near gale \nnorth to northeast winds are west of the front to near 39W and north \nof 23N. Seas are 7 to 11 ft with these winds as noted by Sofar Ocean \nSpotter buoys in this area. Scattered moderate convection is noted \nwithin 180 nm east of the front north of 26N, and within 60 nm west \nof the frontal boundary north of 27N. High pressure is elsewhere \nnorth of about 19N and east of 55W. For the forecast west of 55W, \nthe tightening gradient between the boundary and the high pressure \nwill lead to fresh to strong northeast to east winds along with \nrough seas, possibly as high as 12 ft, over the waters primarily \nnorth and northeast of the Bahamas into the early part of the \nupcoming week. The western Atlantic building high pressure will \nnudge the frontal boundary southeastward stalling near 25N Sun and \nweakening through Wed.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1223473081526747138", "issued": "2026-10-31T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1223473081526747138"}