{"msg": "409\nAXNT20 KNHC 310615\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Sat Oct 31 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0550 UTC.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic through the coast of\nW Africa near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 08N22W where \nit transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ then continues to 06N41W to \n08N61W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to \n14N between 10W and 27W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nThe pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern \nUnited States, a surface trough over the northern Bahamas and a \ntrough over the SW Gulf is supporting moderate to fresh east \nwinds across the northeast Gulf. Moderate seas to 6 ft are with \nthese winds. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds prevails \nelsewhere.\nFor the forecast, a modest pressure gradient between high \npressure over the eastern U.S. and lower pressure over the Bahamas\nand the NW Caribbean will continue to support moderate to fresh \nnortheast to east winds and moderate seas across the northeast and\nnorth-central Gulf into Mon. Looking ahead, expect a cold front \nto enter the northwest Gulf Tue night, and move slowly \nsoutheastward, reaching the east-central Gulf Wed night.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nThe pressure gradient between higher pressure over the Gulf of\nAmerica and the W Atlantic, and lower pressure over Colombia \nsupports fresh to strong trades and 7-9 ft seas in the south- \ncentral Caribbean offshore Colombia. Mainly moderate trades and \n3-6 ft seas prevail across the remainder of the central and \neastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are \nelsewhere. Otherwise, a surface trough analyzed along the\nNicaragua and Costa Rica offshores supports scattered heavy\nshowers over these offshore areas. Isolated showers are elsewhere\nin the NE and south-central basin. \nFor the forecast, moderate to fresh trades over the central and \neastern Caribbean will continue through Mon, with small areas of \nstrong winds near the coast of NW Colombia and NW Venezuela. \nWinds and seas are expected to diminish basin-wide late Mon \nthrough Wed as broad low pressure develops across the Atlantic \nwell to the NE of the Bahamas.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA cold front extends from a 1009 mb low NE of Bermuda southwestward\nto 22N69W. Scattered showers and tstms are ahead of the front to\n55W and N of 24N. Moderate to fresh NNE winds follow the front\nalong with 7-8 ft seas. Over the E subtropics, another cold front\nextends from 30N23W SW to 24N31W where it stalls and weakens to \n21N40W. Scattered moderate convection and tstms are N of 24N \nreaching east as far as 13W, including the Canary Islands. Surface\nridging dominates elsewhere N of 20N. Fresh to strong NNE winds \nand rough seas to 11 ft follow this front. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, the low will shift northeastward \nthrough the weekend, with strong high pressure building into the \nwestern Atlantic, and forcing a remnant frontal trough southward \nto the central Bahamas Sun through early Mon. Fresh to strong \nnortheast to east winds, with rough seas possibly as high as 12 ft\nwill persist north of the frontal trough into next week, as the \nlow pressure moves northeastward, and strong high pressure \ngradually builds into the western Atlantic. This will reinvigorate\nthe frontal trough and force it southeastward, where it will \nstall near 24N Sun through early Mon, then lift northward late Mon\nthrough Wed as broad low pressure develops well NE of the \nBahamas.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1223415989822193666", "issued": "2026-10-31T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1223415989822193666"}