{"msg": "761\nAXNT20 KNHC 302217\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Sat Oct 31 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n2100 UTC.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic through the coast of\nSenegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 06N31W, where\nit transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ then continues to near \n06N42.5W. Then, another portion of the ITCZ extends from 10N50.5W\nto 11N61.5W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 07N\nto 14N and E of 28W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern \nUnited States, a surface trough over the Bahamas and a trough \nover the south-central Gulf are supporting moderate to fresh \nnortheast to east winds across the northeast and north-central \nGulf. Moderate seas to 7 ft are with these winds. Moderate or \nweaker winds prevails elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support \nmoderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas across the \nnortheast and north- central Gulf into Mon. Looking ahead, expect \na cold front to enter the northwest Gulf Tue night, and move \nslowly southeastward, reaching the east-central Gulf Wed night.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nThe pressure gradient between higher pressure over the Gulf and\nAtlantic and lower pressure over Colombia supports fresh to strong\ntrades and 5-7 ft seas in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of\nVenezuela. Mainly moderate trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail across \nthe remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean, with gentle to\nmoderate or weaker winds and slight seas elsewhere. A surface \ntrough analyzed from Jamaica to the north coast of Panama supports\nscattered moderate convection over the southwestern Caribbean. \nScattered moderate convection is also occurring in the E \nCaribbean, driven by convergent surface winds and an upper- level\ntrough.\nFor the forecast, a lingering frontal trough extends from 1012 mb\nlow pres NE of Bermuda southwestward to 27N79W, allowing for a \nmodest pressure gradient to the south, and across the Caribbean \nbasin. The low pres will shift NE through the weekend, with strong\nhigh pressure building into the western Atlantic, and forcing the\nfrontal trough southward to the central Bahamas Sun through early\nMon. Expect moderate to fresh trades over the central and eastern\nCaribbean to continue through Mon, with small areas of strong \nwinds near the coast of Colombia and NW Venezuela. Winds and seas \nare expected to diminish basin- wide late Mon through Wed as broad\nlow pressure develops across the Atlantic well NE of the Bahamas.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA 1012 mb low is analyzed north of the area near 33N62W. A cold \nfront extends from this low to the waters north of the Turks and \nCaicos. A stationary front also extends from this low to 31N55W \nto 22N37W to 31N25W. A surface trough extends from 30N66W to north\nof the Bahamas. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas of 6-11 ft\nprevail N of the large stationary front and surface trough. \nScattered showers and thunderstorms are near the cold front, \ngenerally N of 22N between 58W and 72W. Scattered showers and \nthunderstorms are also along the stationary front N of 25N between\n19W and the front. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, moderate or \nweaker trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, 1012 mb low pres NE of Bermuda \nextends a cold front S then SW to the Turks and Caicos Islands, \nwhile a lingering frontal trough extends from the low pres through\n31N63W to near 27N79W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds with rough \nseas as high as 12 ft will persist north of the frontal trough \ninto next week, as the low pressure moves northeastward, and \nstrong high pressure gradually builds into the western Atlantic. \nThis will reinvigorate the frontal trough and force it \nsoutheastward, where it will stall near 24N Sun through early Mon,\nthen lift northward late Mon through Wed as broad low pressure \ndevelops well NE of the Bahamas.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1223321994240098306", "issued": "2026-10-30T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1223321994240098306"}