{"msg": "266\nAXNT20 KNHC 301744\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Fri Oct 30 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1700 UTC.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic through the coast of\nSenegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 06N28W, where \nit transitions to the ITCZ. the ITCZ then continues to near \n05N54W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 03N to 10N\nand E of 30W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern \nUnited States, a surface trough over the Bahamas and a trough \nover the south-central Gulf are supporting moderate to fresh \nnortheast to east winds across the northeast and north-central \nGulf. Moderate seas to 6-7 ft are with these winds. Moderate or \nweaker winds are elsewhere as noted in recent scatterometer \npasses.\nFor the forecast, a modest pressure gradient between high \npressure over the eastern U.S. and lower pressure over the Bahamas\nand the NW Caribbean will continue to support moderate to fresh \nNE to E winds and moderate seas across the northeast and north-\ncentral Gulf into early next week. Looking ahead, expect fresh SE \nto S winds to develop over much of the northwest Gulf by Tue \nnight, as a cold front moves through the Southern Plains.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nThe pressure gradient between higher pressure over the Gulf and\nAtlantic and lower pressure over Colombia supports fresh to strong\ntrades and 5-7 ft seas in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of\nVenezuela. Moderate to fresh trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail across\nthe remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean, with gentle to\nmoderate or weaker winds and slight seas elsewhere. A surface\ntrough analyzed from Jamaica to the north coast of Panama supports\nscattered moderate convection S of 17N between 74W and 81W.\nScattered moderate convection is also occurring in the SE\nCaribbean S of 14N and E of 68W, driven by convergent surface\nwinds and an upper-level trough.\nFor the forecast, a lingering frontal trough extends from 1012 mb\nlow pres near 30N67W to 27N79W, allowing for a modest pressure \ngradient to the south, and across the Caribbean basin. The low \npres will shift NE through the weekend, with strong high pressure \nbuilding into the western Atlantic, and forcing the frontal trough\nsouthward through the NW Bahamas. Expect moderate to fresh trades\nover the central and eastern Caribbean to continue through Mon \nnight, with small areas of strong winds near the coast of Colombia\nand NW Venezuela. Winds and seas are expected to diminish basin- \nwide late Mon through Tue as broad low pressure begins to develop \nacross the Atlantic to the NE of the Bahamas. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nA 1012 mb low is analyzed near 30N67W. A cold front extends from\nthis low to the waters north of the Turks and Caicos. A stationary\nfront also extends from another low north of the area to 31N57W to\n23N36W to 31N25W. A surface trough also extends from the low to\njust north of the Bahamas and then to near the Florida Keys. \nFresh to strong E to NE winds and seas of 6-10 ft prevail N of the\nlarge stationary front and surface trough. Scattered showers and \nthunderstorms are along and ahead of the cold front, generally N \nof 22N and W of 61W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also \nalong and ahead of the stationary front N of 20N between 20W and \n35W. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, moderate or weaker trades and\n3-6 ft seas prevail.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, 1012 mb low pres near 30N67W \nextends a cold front S-SW into the southeast Bahamas, while a \nlingering frontal trough extends from the low pres to near 27N79W.\nFresh to strong NE to E winds with rough seas to around 12 ft \nwill persist north of the frontal trough into next week, as the \nlow pressure moves northeastward past Bermuda, and strong high \npressure gradually builds into the western Atlantic. This will \nreinvigorate the frontal trough and force it southeastward, where \nit will stall near 25N Sun, then lift northward Mon and Tue as \nbroad low pressure begins to develop NE of the Bahamas.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1223268399216361474", "issued": "2026-10-30T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1223268399216361474"}