{"id": "1223018128619995138", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-29T21:00:00Z", "msg": "272\nWTPZ42 KNHC 292031\nTCDEP2\n \nTropical Depression Vance Discussion Number  34\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026\n200 PM MST Thu Oct 29 2026\n \nVance is weakening again. Satellite imagery shows the convective \nstructure of Vance has degraded since the previous advisory, as deep \nconvection has now shifted about 95 n mi northeast of Vance's \ncenter. This structure is clear evidence of strong vertical wind \nshear affecting the cyclone. An earlier 1559 UTC Metop-B \nscatterometer pass showed an elongated system with a peak reliable \nwind of 29 kt. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB \nwas T2.0/30 kt, aligning well with objective aids from UW-CIMSS \nranging from 28 to 37 kt. Given the recent degradation in satellite \npresentation and the latest intensity estimates, the initial \nintensity is lowered to 30 kt.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 360/6 kt.  This \ngeneral motion at about the same speed is expected until Vance \ndegenerates into a trough of low pressure over the southern Gulf of \nCalifornia by this evening. The new NHC forecast is largely \nunchanged from the previous one, lying close to the HCCA and TVCN \naids. The primary hazard associated with Vance remains to be heavy \nrainfall, with high rain rates likely in areas of deep convection \nacross north-central Mexico.\n\nVance continues to feel effects of a hostile environment, \ncharacterized by strong vertical wind shear of over 50 kt and \nincreasingly dry mid-level relative humidity values around 40 to 50 \npercent. As a result, the cyclone is soon expected to become a \nremnant low, with most models showing dissipation shortly thereafter \nover the southern Gulf of California. \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Vance will impact\nportions of western Mexico during the next day or two. This rainfall\nmay produce flooding and mudslides across central and southern\nSinaloa, far southwestern Durango, and far northwestern Nayarit,\nespecially in areas along steep terrain.\n \n2. Moisture carried northeastward from Vance will produce heavy rain\nacross portions of the U.S. Southern Plains and New Mexico today\ninto Friday.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  29/2100Z 22.3N 108.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  30/0600Z 23.3N 108.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}