{"msg": "794\nAXPZ20 KNHC 291550\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Thu Oct 29 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Vance is centered near 21.6N 108.8W at 29/1500\nUTC, moving north at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45\nkt. Peak seas are currently around 14-15 ft. Scattered moderate\nto isolated strong convection is occurring from 20N-25N east of\n115W. The motion to the north is expected to continue until \nVance dissipates tonight or early Friday. Weakening is forecast,\nand Vance is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low \nlater today. Swells generated by Vance will affect coastal \nportions of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as the \nsouthern portion of the Baja California Peninsula, during the \nnext day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening\nsurf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from \nyour local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS \nFORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nVance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from coastal Costa Rica near 10N83W\nto 03N100W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated\nstrong convection is noted from 02S-07N east of 83W and south of\n10N west of 118W. Scattered moderate convection is also occurring\nfrom 03N-07N between 95W-115W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nrecently Tropical Storm Vance between Cabo Corrientes and the \nentrance to the Gulf of California and the southern tip of Baja \nCalifornia Sur.\nAside from Vance, fresh to moderate N to NE gap winds are\noccurring over the Gulf of California with seas 8-9 ft.\nElsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with 5-7 ft over the\nPacific waters, 1-2 ft over the N and central Gulf of California,\nand 3-7 ft over the S Gulf of California.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Vance will weaken to a remnant \nlow near 22.9N 108.5W at the entrance to the Gulf of California \nthis evening, and dissipate Fri morning. Fresh to locally strong \nN gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue through \nearly next week. A developing extratropical cyclone should move \ninto the waters west of the Baja California peninsula and over \nthe N Gulf of California Sat night into Sun with fresh to locally\nstrong SE to SW winds. Looking ahead, fresh NW winds should \noccur over the Gulf of California on Mon in the wake of the \nextratropical cyclone.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh NE to E gap winds are occurring over the Gulf of Papagayo\nregion and fresh N winds are observed over the Gulf of Panama.\nElsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 4-6 ft. \nScattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from \n02S-07N east of 83W.\nFor the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E gap winds over\nthe Gulf of Papagayo region should continue through early next \nweek. Fresh N winds over the Gulf of Panama should continue \nthrough Fri before weakening. Large long-period SW swell will \nreach the equatorial waters Fri before diminishing on Sun.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nThe pressure gradient between weak ridging north of our waters \nand lower pressure over the monsoon trough is forcing only\nmoderate or weaker trades across the forecast waters. Large\nlong-period SW swell is reaching northward across the equator to\n05N between 100W-120W. Elsewhere seas are 4-7 ft.\nFor the forecast, an extratropical cyclone will form near 28N137W\nby tomorrow morning and move slowly eastward. By Fri night, fresh\nto strong S to SW winds will develop south of a warm front and\nfresh to strong N to NE winds should occur north of a cold front.\nThe system should move over the offshore zones west of the Baja\nCalifornia peninsula on Sun with winds and seas diminishing by\nSun night.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1222962777239617538", "issued": "2026-10-29T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1222962777239617538"}