{"msg": "178\nAXPZ20 KNHC 290835\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Thu Oct 29 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0600 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nRecently upgraded Tropical Storm Vance is centered near 21.0N\n108.4W at 29/0900 UTC, moving north-northeast at 6 kt. Estimated\nminimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind \nspeed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently \naround 12-13 ft or 4.0 m. Vance remains a sheared tropical \ncyclone with convection limited to the NE to E side of the \nsystem. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted between \n45 nm and 420 nm in the NE quadrant including over a large \nportion of mainland Mexico. Vance is moving toward the north-\nnortheast. A turn to the north, followed by a decrease in \nforward speed, is expected over the next 24 hours. Vance should \ngradually weaken today and is forecast to become a post-tropical \nremnant low late today. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with\nVance will impact portions of western Mexico during much of this\nweek. This rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides across \ncentral and southern Sinaloa, far southwestern Durango, and far \nnorthwestern Nayarit, especially in areas along steep terrain.\nSwells generated by Vance will affect coastal portions of \nsouthwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as the southern \nportion of the Baja California Peninsula, during the next couple \nof days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf \nand rip current conditions. Please consult products from your \nlocal weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST \nissued by the National Hurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nVance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 06N77W to 03N94W to 06N120W to\nbeyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong \nconvection is noted from 00.5N to 06.5N between 102W and 110W, \nand from 00N to 09N between 115W and 140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nrecently upgraded Tropical Storm Vance between Cabo Corrientes \nand the entrance to the Gulf of California and the southern tip \nof Baja California Sur.\nFresh to near gale force northerly winds prevail in the Gulf of\nTehuantepec as noted on recently ASCAT scatterometer data. Rough\nseas are likely occurring with these winds. Light to gentle \nwinds and slight to moderate seas prevail in the Gulf of \nCalifornia, except higher in the southern Gulf through the \nentrance due to swells from Vance. Elsewhere, winds are mainly \nmoderate or weaker with moderate seas over the open waters off \nMexico.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Vance will weaken to a tropical\ndepression near 22.0N 108.0W this afternoon, become a remnant \nlow and move to 23.4N 108.2W Fri morning, and dissipate Fri \nafternoon. Winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse to fresh \nto strong through the next several days, mainly during the \novernight into the early morning hours. A developing low pressure\nand frontal system may impact the Baja California Peninsula \nwaters late in the upcoming weekend with the potential for \nincreasing winds and building seas. Looking ahead, fresh NW winds\nlook develop across the Gulf of California early next week in \nthe wake of the system. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate \nseas will prevail otherwise. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to locally fresh winds are over and downstream the Gulf\nof Papagayo. Similar winds are in the Gulf of Panama as seen by\nrecent ASCAT scatterometer data. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker \nwinds and moderate seas generally prevail. \nFor the forecast, NE winds over and downstream of the Gulf of \nPapagayo will pulse to moderate to fresh speeds through tonight,\nthen pulse to fresh to strong thereafter. Moderate to fresh \nnortherly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through the end \nof the week. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will \ncontinue elsewhere, except mainly slight nearshore Colombia. Seas\nmay briefly build to rough in SW swell S of the Equator by the \nend of the week through Sat night as winds freshen there on Fri. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nA frontal trough is over the NW waters from 30N137W to 1015 mb\nlow pressure near 28N138W to 24.5N140W. Scattered moderate\nconvection is possible from 26N to 30N between 129W and 140W. \nFresh winds and locally rough seas are within 60 nm east of the \nfront. High pressure prevails elsewhere N of about 18N. Moderate \nto fresh winds are found S of 04N between 108W and 120W as \nconfirmed by recent ASCAT data. Rough seas are found across these\nsame waters. Across the remainder of the waters, winds are \nmoderate or weaker with moderate seas.\nFor the forecast, cross equatorial SW swell will continue to\nsupport rough seas over the S-central waters while mixing with\ndistant and old NE swells generated by Tropical Storm Vance. \nThese rough seas are expected to linger through early Sat. A \ndeveloping low pressure and frontal system may impact the waters \nN of 20N by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend, with \nthe potential for increasing winds and building seas as the \nsystem shifts eastward. Looking ahead, a large set of rough to \nvery rough NW swell may impact the NW waters early next week \nbehind a cold front, highest near 30N140W.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1222877220987830274", "issued": "2026-10-29T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1222877220987830274"}