{"msg": "057\nAXPZ20 KNHC 290238\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Thu Oct 29 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0210 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Depression Vance is centered near 21.1N 108.1W at\n29/0300 UTC, moving north-northeast at 11 kt. Estimated minimum\ncentral pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30\nkt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently around 12-13 ft\nor 4.0 m. Vance remains a sheared tropical cyclone with \nconvection limited to the NE to E side of the system. Numerous \nmoderate to strong convection is noted within 360 nm in the NE\nquadrant. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast. A\nturn to the north, followed by a decrease in forward speed, is \nexpected over the next 24 hours. Slight weakening is forecast to\noccur during the next day or so, and Vance is expected to become\npost-tropical within the next 24 hours, dissipating shortly \nthereafter. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Vance \nwill impact portions of western Mexico during much of this week. \nThis rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides across central \nand southern Sinaloa, far southwestern Durango, and far \nnorthwestern Nayarit, especially in areas along steep terrain. \nSwells generated by Vance will affect coastal portions of \nsouthwestern and west- central Mexico, as well as the southern \nportion of the Baja California Peninsula during the next couple \nof days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf \nand rip current conditions. Please consult products from your \nlocal weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST \nissued by the National Hurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nVance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 08.5N77.5W to 03N94W to 06N120W\nto 1010 mb low pressure near 06N138W to beyond 06N140W. \nScattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from\n00N to 10.5N between 102W and 140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nTropical Depression Vance offshore Cabo Corrientes and nearing\nthe entrance to the Gulf of California and the southern tip of\nBaja California Sur.\nFresh to near gale force northerly winds and moderate seas \nprevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds and \nslight to moderate seas prevail in the Gulf of California, except\nhigher in the southern Gulf through the entrance due to swells\nfrom Vance. Elsewhere, winds are mainly moderate or weaker with \nmoderate seas over the open waters off Mexico.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Depression Vance will move to 22.2N\n107.6W Thu morning, become a remnant low and move to 23.7N \n107.7W Thu evening, 25.2N 108.1W Fri morning, and dissipate Fri \nevening. Winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse fresh to \nnear gale force through early Fri, then moderate to fresh through\nSat night, then fresh to strong thereafter. A developing low \npressure and frontal system may impact the Baja California \nPeninsula waters late in the upcoming weekend with the potential \nfor increasing winds and building seas. Looking ahead fresh NW \nwinds look develop across the Gulf of California early next week \nin the wake of the system. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate\nseas will prevail otherwise. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to locally fresh winds are over and downstream the Gulf\nof Papagayo and the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, moderate or \nweaker winds and moderate seas generally prevail. \nFor the forecast, NE winds over and downstream of the Gulf of \nPapagayo will pulse to moderate to fresh speeds through the end \nof the week and into the upcoming weekend, locally strong at \ntimes starting early Fri. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will\npulse in the Gulf of Panama through the end of the week. \nModerate or weaker winds and moderate seas will continue \nelsewhere, except mainly slight nearshore Colombia. Seas may \nbriefly build to rough in SW swell S of the Equator by the end of\nthe week through Sat night as winds freshen there on Fri. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nA 1009 mb low pressure area is near 30N138W with a frontal trough\nSSW of the low to 26.5N140W. Fresh to locally strong winds and\nlocally rough seas are within 60 nm east of the front. High \npressure prevails elsewhere N of about 17N. The pressure \ngradient between the area of high pressure and the monsoon trough\nis supporting moderate to locally fresh tradewinds from 14N to \n18N and between 126W and 136W. Moderate to fresh winds are found\nS of 03N between 108W and 120W. Rough seas are found S of 04N\nbetween 107W and 130W. Across the remainder of the waters, winds\nare moderate or weaker with moderate seas.\nFor the forecast, cross equatorial SW swell will continue to\nsupport rough seas over the S-central waters  while mixing with \nNE swells generated by Vance. These rough seas are expected to \nlinger through early Sat. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds \nand moderate seas will persist through at least mid-week. A \ndeveloping low pressure and frontal system may impact the waters \nN of 20N by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend, with \nthe potential for increasing winds and building seas as the \nsystem shifts eastward. Looking ahead, a large set of rough to\nvery rough NW swell may impact the NW waters early next week,\nhighest near 30N140W.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1222807060339359746", "issued": "2026-10-29T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1222807060339359746"}