{"id": "1222806149367889922", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-29T03:00:00Z", "msg": "031\nWTPZ42 KNHC 290233\nTCDEP2\n \nTropical Depression Vance Discussion Number  31\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026\n800 PM MST Wed Oct 28 2026\n\nAs anticipated, Vance's deep convection has re-ignited this evening, \nwith cloud top temperatures as cold as -80 degrees C. This \nconvective activity has pulled at the storm's center of circulation \nas well, with earlier visible satellite imagery showing the center \nbriefly becoming obscured. TAFB's subjective Dvorak intensity \nestimate remains at a 2.0 for a final T number, with objective \nestimates from UW-CIMSS ranging from 27-36 kt. Based on these data, \nVance's initial intensity is held steady at 30 kt, though its \npossible higher gusts could be present within the deep convection.\n\nWith this convective redevelopment, Vance has turned to the \nnorth-northeast with a somewhat faster forward motion, estimated at \n025/11 kt. Vance is being steered by a broad trough centered over \nthe eastern Pacific, and is expected to turn back to the north once \nconvection wanes on Thursday. The latest NHC track forecast reflects \nlargely a blend of the HCCA and TVCN models, and is a little east of \nthe previous track, partially due to adjustments in the initial \nposition. \n\nStrong vertical wind shear will continue to erode Vance's core over \nthe next 24 hours. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and \nECMWF suggests that the ongoing convection, expected to last most of \novernight, will be Vance's last gasp before it is fully sheared off, \nleading to the cyclone becoming a post-tropical remnant low during \nthe latter half of tomorrow. Vance is then expected to dissipate \nshortly thereafter as it interacts with mountainous terrain along \nthe western Mexican coastline. The latest NHC intensity forecast \ndepicts slight weakening after Vance's convective max tonight, \nbefore weakening into a post-tropical remnant low by tomorrow \nevening.\n \n\nKey Message:\n\n1. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Vance will impact \nportions of western Mexico during much of this week. This rainfall \nmay produce flooding and mudslides across central and southern \nSinaloa, far southwestern Durango, and far northwestern Nayarit, \nespecially in areas along steep terrain.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  29/0300Z 21.1N 108.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  29/1200Z 22.2N 107.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  30/0000Z 23.7N 107.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  30/1200Z 25.2N 108.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  31/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}