{"msg": "378\nAXPZ20 KNHC 282044\nTWDEP\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Wed Oct 28 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2030 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nRecently downgraded Tropical Depression Vance is centered near \n20.1N 109.1W at 28/2100 UTC, moving north at 8 kt. Estimated \nminimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed\nis 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently around \n12-13 ft or 4 m. Vance remains a sheared tropical cyclone with \nconvection limited to the NE to E side of the system. Numerous \nmoderate to strong convection is noted within 240 nm in the NE \nsemicircle of Vance and 0 nm elsewhere. Vance is moving toward \nthe north northeast, and is forecast to continue on this track. \nLittle change in strength is forecast during the next 24 h, \nfollowed by gradual weakening. Vance is expected to become a \npost-tropical remnant low on Thu as it approaches the coast of \nnorthwestern Mexico. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with \nVance will impact portions of western Mexico during much of this \nweek. This rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides across \ncentral and southern Sinaloa, far southwestern Durango, and far \nnorthwestern Nayarit, especially in areas along steep terrain. \nSwells generated by Vance will affect coastal portions of \nsouthwestern, west-central Mexico, and the southern portion of \nthe Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. \nThese swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip \ncurrent conditions. Please consult products from your local \nweather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued \nby the National Hurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nVance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 04N98W to 09N113W to \n07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is \nnoted from 04N to 10N between 105W and 120W, from 00N to 16N \nbetween 120W and 130W, and from 00N to 10N between 130W and 140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nrecently downgraded Tropical Depression Vance.\nFresh to strong northerly winds, and moderate seas, prevail in \nthe Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds, and slight to \nmoderate seas, prevail in the Gulf of California. Elsewhere, \noutside of Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds are mainly \nmoderate or weaker, with moderate seas, over the open waters off \nMexico.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Depression Vance will move to 21.2N \n108.7W Thu morning, become post-tropical and move to 22.6N 108.5W\nThu afternoon, 24.1N 108.3W Fri morning, and dissipate Fri \nafternoon. Winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse fresh to \nnear gale force through early Fri, then moderate to fresh through\nSat night, then fresh to strong thereafter. A developing low \npressure and frontal system may impact the Baja California \nPeninsula waters late in the upcoming weekend with the potential \nfor increasing winds and building seas. Moderate or weaker winds \nand moderate seas will prevail otherwise. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to locally fresh winds are over and downstream the Gulf\nof Papagayo and the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, moderate or \nweaker winds and moderate seas generally prevail. \nFor the forecast, NE winds over and downstream of the Gulf of \nPapagayo will pulse to moderate to fresh speeds through the end \nof the week and into the upcoming weekend, locally strong at \ntimes this weekend. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse \nin the Gulf of Panama through the end of the week. Moderate or \nweaker winds and moderate seas will continue elsewhere, except \nmainly slight nearshore Colombia. Seas may briefly build to rough\nin SW swell S of the Equator by the end of the week as winds \nfreshen there on Fri. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Special Features section above for information on recently\ndowngraded Tropical Depression Vance.\nA slow moving cold front is over the far NW waters. Fresh winds \nand rough seas are within 60 nm east of the front. High pressure \nprevails elsewhere N of about 20N. The pressure gradient between \nthe area of high pressure and the monsoon trough is supporting \nmoderate to locally fresh tradewinds from 15N to 18N and between \n124W and 137W. Moderate seas are found over these waters. \nModerate to fresh winds, and rough seas are found S of 04N \nbetween 100W and 120W. Across the remainder of the waters, winds \nare moderate or weaker with moderate seas.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Depression Vance will move to 21.2N \n108.7W Thu morning, become post-tropical and move to 22.6N 108.5W\nThu afternoon, 24.1N 108.3W Fri morning, and dissipate Fri \nafternoon. Cross equatorial SW swell will build seas to 7-10 ft \nS of 04N between 105W and 128W by late tonight, while mixing with\nNE swells generated by Vance. These rough seas are expected to \nlinger through at least Fri night, likely subsiding by the start \nof the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate \nseas will persist through at least mid- week. A developing low \npressure and frontal system may impact the waters N of 20N by the\nend of the week into the upcoming weekend, with the potential \nfor increasing winds and building seas as the system shifts \neastward.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1222755995640233986", "issued": "2026-10-28T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1222755995640233986"}