{"id": "1222755919667396610", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-28T21:00:00Z", "msg": "125\nWTPZ42 KNHC 282033\nTCDEP2\n \nTropical Depression Vance Discussion Number  30\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026\n200 PM MST Wed Oct 28 2026\n\nVance's convection continues to be displaced northeast of the \ncenter, with visible satellite imagery still showing an exposed \nlow-level circulation. An ASCAT pass over Vance from around 1640 UTC \nshowed the highest winds displaced well away from the center as \nwell, with a peak value of 29 kt, although this pass missed the \ndeepest convection to the northeast. The latest subjective Dvorak \nintensity estimate from TAFB gave Vance a final T-number of 2.0, \nwhile objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ranged from 27 to 34 kt. \nBased on primarily scatterometry data and satellite imagery, the \ninitial intensity is set at 30 kt, and Vance is downgraded to a \ntropical depression. \n\nThe initial motion was estimated to be 010/8 kt. Vance is being \nsteered by a longwave trough centered over the east-central \nPacific. Track guidance generally agrees on keeping the storm \nmotion fixed at north-northeast over the next 48 hours, as the \ntrough will be slow to shift eastward. The latest NHC track \nforecast has changed little from the previous advisory, and \ngenerally follows a blend of the last forecast and the latest HCCA \nguidance. \n\nVance remains in a hostile environment characterized by strong \nvertical wind shear, and global models generally depict the system \nbecoming post-tropical within the next 24 hours. The system may \ndissipate shortly thereafter, perhaps before even reaching the coast \nof Sinaloa. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF \nsuggest that Vance may undergo one more round of diurnal convection \novernight tonight. However, the latest NHC intensity forecast \ngenerally holds the system's intensity steady, given how hostile the \nenvironment is despite the potential convective re-development. \nRegardless of Vance's dissipation time, heavy rain can still be \nexpected along and ahead of the system's north-northeastward track.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Vance will impact\nportions of western Mexico during much of this week. This rainfall\nmay produce flooding and mudslides across central and southern\nSinaloa, far southwestern Durango, and far northwestern Nayarit,\nespecially in areas along steep terrain.\n \n2. Interests along the west-central and northwestern coasts of\nMexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula should monitor the\nprogress of Vance.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  28/2100Z 20.1N 109.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  29/0600Z 21.2N 108.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  29/1800Z 22.6N 108.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 36H  30/0600Z 24.1N 108.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 48H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}