{"msg": "757\nAXPZ20 KNHC 281451\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Wed Oct 28 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1445 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Vance is centered near 19.2N 109.2W at 28/1500\nUTC, moving north-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with\ngusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently around 12-13 ft or 4 m. \nVance remains a sheared tropical cyclone with convection limited \nto the NE to E side of the system. Numerous moderate to strong \nconvection is noted within 240 nm in the NE semicircle of Vance \nand 0 nm elsewhere. Vance is moving toward the north northwest. \nA turn toward the north to north- northeast is expected later \ntoday. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 22 \nh, followed by gradual weakening. Vance is expected to become a \npost-tropical remnant low on Thu as it approaches the coast of \nnorthwestern Mexico. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with \nVance will impact portions of western Mexico during much of this \nweek. This rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides across \ncentral and southern Sinaloa, far southwestern Durango, and far \nnorthwestern Nayarit, especially in areas along steep terrain. \nVance is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain across central\nand southern Sinaloa, far southwestern Durango, and far \nnorthwestern Nayarit, with isolated higher totals of 7 inches \npossible over central and southern Sinaloa. This rainfall may \nproduce flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep \nterrain. Swells generated by Vance will affect coastal portions \nof southwestern, west-central Mexico, and the southern portion of\nthe Baja California Peninsula during the next few days. These \nswells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current\nconditions. Please consult products from your local weather \noffice. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the \nNational Hurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nVance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 10N106W to 07N140W.\nScattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from\n03N to 10N between 105W and 115W, from 02N to 17N between 124W\nand 130W, and from 00N to 10N between 130W and 140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nTropical Storm Vance.\nFresh to strong northerly winds, and rough seas, prevail in the \nGulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds, and slight to \nmoderate seas, prevail in the Gulf of California. Elsewhere, \noutside of Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds are mainly \nmoderate or weaker, with moderate seas, over the open waters off \nMexico.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Vance will move to 20.6N 109.0W this \nevening, weaken to a remnant low near 22.2N 108.6W Thu morning, \n23.9N 108.2W Thu evening, 24.9N 108.2W Fri morning, and dissipate\nFri evening. Winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse fresh \nto near gale force through early Fri, then moderate to fresh \nthrough Sat night, then fresh to strong thereafter. A developing \nlow pressure and frontal system may impact the Baja California \nPeninsula waters late in the upcoming weekend with the potential \nfor increasing winds and building seas. Moderate or weaker winds \nand moderate seas will prevail otherwise.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to locally fresh winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo and\nthe Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and \nmoderate seas generally prevail. \nFor the forecast, NE winds over and downstream of the Gulf of \nPapagayo will pulse to moderate to fresh speeds through the end \nof the week and into the upcoming weekend, locally strong at \ntimes this weekend. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse \nin the Gulf of Panama through the end of the week. Moderate or \nweaker winds and moderate seas will continue elsewhere, except \nmainly slight nearshore Colombia. Seas may briefly build to rough\nin SW swell S of the Equator by the end of the week as winds \nfreshen there on Fri. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Tropical \nStorm Vance.\nA slow moving cold front is over the far NW waters. Fresh to \nstrong winds and rough seas are within 60 nm east of the front. \nHigh pressure prevails elsewhere N of about 20N. The pressure \ngradient between the area of high pressure and the monsoon trough\nis supporting moderate to locally fresh tradewinds from 15N to \n18N and between 124W and 137W. Moderate seas are found over \nthese waters. Moderate to fresh winds, and rough seas are found S\nof 04N between 100W and 120W. Across the remainder of the \nwaters, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Vance will move to 20.6N 109.0W this \nevening, weaken to a remnant low near 22.2N 108.6W Thu morning, \n23.9N 108.2W Thu evening, 24.9N 108.2W Fri morning, and dissipate\nFri evening. Fresh to locally strong SE to S winds over the NW \npart of the area will diminish to mostly fresh speeds by tonight.\nCross equatorial SW swell will spread northward through mid-\nweek, building seas to 7-10 ft S of 04N between 105W and 128W by \nlate tonight, while mixing with NE swells generated by Vance. \nThese rough seas are expected to linger through at least Fri \nnight, likely subsiding by the start of the weekend. Elsewhere, \nmoderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will persist through \nat least mid- week. A developing low pressure and frontal system \nmay impact the waters N of 20N by the end of the week into the \nupcoming weekend, with the potential for increasing winds and \nbuilding seas as the system shifts eastward.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1222668034037678087", "issued": "2026-10-28T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1222668034037678087"}