{"id": "1222664602525171719", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-28T15:00:00Z", "msg": "381\nWTPZ42 KNHC 281433\nTCDEP2\n \nTropical Storm Vance Discussion Number  29\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026\n800 AM MST Wed Oct 28 2026\n \nAfter a robust convective burst overnight, the low-level center of \nVance is now fully exposed once again as strong westerly shear \npersists over the storm. The lingering convective activity is \ndisplaced well to the east of Vance's center, with gusty winds and \nheavy rain spreading toward Islas Marias and coastal portions of \nwest-central Mexico. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, which \nis supported by the latest TAFB Dvorak classification, UW-CIMSS \nobjective estimates, and the overnight scatterometer data.\n\nThe long-term motion of Vance is to the north-northwest (340/9 kt), \nalthough the exposed center has moved erratically this morning. \nRecent satellite images suggest Vance is beginning to turn more \nnorthward as expected, and the track models agree on a northward to \nnorth-northeastward motion during the next couple of days. The \nlatest NHC forecast lies to the left of the previous one, mainly the \nresult of an initial westward position adjustment. The vertical wind \nshear over Vance will remain very strong during the next 24-48 \nhours, and simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF show \nthe system devoid of convection by tomorrow morning. The updated NHC \nforecast shows Vance becoming a post-tropical remnant low in 24 \nhours, with continued weakening through Friday that follows HCCA and \nIVCN. It is possible that the remnant low dissipates over the Gulf \nof California before it reaches the coast of Mexico.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Vance will impact \nportions of western Mexico during much of this week. This rainfall \nmay produce flooding and mudslides across central and southern \nSinaloa, far southwestern Durango, and far northwestern Nayarit, \nespecially in areas along steep terrain.\n \n2. Interests along the west-central and northwestern coasts of \nMexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula should monitor the \nprogress of Vance.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  28/1500Z 19.2N 109.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  29/0000Z 20.6N 109.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  29/1200Z 22.2N 108.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  30/0000Z 23.9N 108.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  30/1200Z 24.9N 108.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  31/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}