{"msg": "247\nAXPZ20 KNHC 280837\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Wed Oct 28 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0600 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Vance is centered near 18.6N 108.6W at 28/0900\nUTC, moving north at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure\nis 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to\n45 kt. Peak seas are currently around 12-13 ft or 4 m. Vance \nremains a sheared tropical cyclone with convection limited to the\nNE to E side of the system with some new deep convection having \ndeveloped in the past several hours. Numerous moderate to strong \nconvection is noted within 240 nm in the NE semicircle of Vance \nand 0 nm elsewhere. Vance is moving toward the north. A turn \ntoward the north-northeast is expected later today. Little \nchange in strength is forecast during the next 24 h, followed by \ngradual weakening. Vance is expected to become a post-tropical \nremnant low on Thu as it approaches the coast of northwestern \nMexico. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Vance will \nimpact portions of western Mexico during much of this week. This \nrainfall may produce flooding and mudslides across central and \nsouthern Sinaloa, western Durango, and northwestern Nayarit, \nespecially in areas along steep terrain. Swells generated by \nVance will affect coastal portions of southwestern, west-central \nMexico, and the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula\nduring the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-\nthreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult \nproducts from your local weather office. Please read the latest \nHIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at \nwebsite - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the \nlatest Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from the SW Caribbean Sea near 12N74W\nto 05N86W to 08N98W well SE of Tropical Storm Vance, then resumes\nwell SW of Vance from 07N114W to 06N126W to 1011 mb low pressure\nnear 08N136.5W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong \nconvection is noted from 12N to 17N between 124W and 129W, and \nfrom 00N to 10N between 133W and 140W. Isolated to widely \nscattered moderate convection is noted in a band within 02N117W \nto 13N105W to 17N106W to 17N103W to 11N103W to 02N117W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nTropical Storm Vance.\nNortherly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are fresh to near gale\nforce with seas to rough. Light to gentle winds, and slight to \nmoderate seas, prevail in the Gulf of California. Elsewhere, \noutside of Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds are mainly \nmoderate or weaker, with moderate seas, over the open waters off \nMexico, except locally fresh winds nearshore Baja California per\nrecent ASCAT scatterometer data.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Vance will move to 20.0N 108.7W\nthis afternoon, 21.6N 108.3W Thu morning, weaken to a remnant \nlow near 23.1N 108.0W Thu afternoon, inland to 25.2N 107.1W Fri \nmorning, and dissipate Fri afternoon. Winds in the Gulf of \nTehuantepec will pulse fresh to near gale force through early \nFri, then moderate to fresh through Sat night, then fresh to \nstrong thereafter. A developing low pressure and frontal system \nmay impact the Baja California Peninsula waters late in the \nupcoming weekend with the potential for increasing winds and \nbuilding seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will \nprevail otherwise. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate or weaker winds and moderate seas generally prevail,\nlocally fresh in the Gulf of Papagayo and the Gulf of Panama.\nScattered showers with some isolated thunderstorms prevail across\nthe waters from southern Costa Rica southward to Ecuador.\nFor the forecast, NE winds over and downstream of the Gulf of \nPapagayo will pulse to moderate to fresh speeds through the end \nof the week and into the upcoming weekend, locally strong at \ntimes this weekend. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse \nin the Gulf of Panama through the end of the week. Moderate or \nweaker winds and moderate seas will continue elsewhere, except \nmainly slight nearshore Colombia. Seas may briefly build to rough\nin SW swell S of the Equator by the end of the week as winds\nfreshen there on Fri.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Tropical \nStorm Vance.\nA slow moving cold front is over the far NW waters with nearby\nconvection now confined to N of the discussion waters. Fresh to \nstrong winds and rough seas are within 60 nm east of the front. \nHigh pressure prevails elsewhere N of about 20N. The pressure \ngradient between the area of high pressure and the monsoon trough\nis supporting moderate to locally fresh tradewinds from 14N to\n18N and between 124W and 137W per recent ASCAT scatterometer data.\nModerate seas are found over these waters. Moderate to fresh \nwinds, and rough seas are found S of 04N between 100W and 120W. \nAcross the remainder of the waters, winds are moderate or weaker \nwith moderate seas.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Vance will move to 20.0N 108.7W\nthis afternoon, 21.6N 108.3W Thu morning, weaken to a remnant \nlow near 23.1N 108.0W Thu afternoon, inland to 25.2N 107.1W Fri \nmorning, and dissipate Fri afternoon. Fresh to locally strong SE\nto S winds over the NW part of the area will diminish to mostly \nfresh speeds by tonight. Cross equatorial SW swell will spread \nnorthward through mid-week, building seas to 7-10 ft S of 04N \nbetween 105W and 128W by late tonight, while mixing with NE \nswells generated by Vance. These rough seas are expected to \nlinger through at least Fri night, likely subsiding by the start \nof the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate \nseas will persist through at least mid- week. A developing low \npressure and frontal system may impact the waters N of 20N by the\nend of the week into the upcoming weekend, with the potential \nfor increasing winds and building seas as the system shifts \neastward.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1222594475220467719", "issued": "2026-10-28T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1222594475220467719"}