{"msg": "832\nAXPZ20 KNHC 280322\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Wed Oct 28 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0000 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Vance is centered near 17.3N 108.4W at 28/0300\nUTC, moving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with\ngusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently around 12-13 ft or 4 m.\nVance remains a sheared tropical cyclone with convection limited\nto the SE side of the system. Numerous moderate to strong \nconvection is noted within 180 nm in the SE semicircle of Vance. \nAdditional isolated to widely scattered moderate convection is \nnoted on satellite imagery between 120 nm and 360 nm in the N \nquadrant. Vance is moving toward the northwest. A gradual turn \ntoward the north is expected through midweek. Little change in \nstrength is forecast during the next couple of days, and Vance \ncould become a post-tropical cyclone during this time if it is \nunable to sustain organized convection. Periods of heavy rainfall\nassociated with Vance will impact portions of western Mexico \nduring much of this week. This rainfall may produce flooding and \nmudslides across central and southern Sinaloa, western Durango, \nand northwestern Nayarit, especially in areas along steep \nterrain. Swells generated by Vance will affect coastal portions \nof southern, southwestern, and west-central Mexico during the \nnext few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening \nsurf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from \nyour local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS \nFORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nVance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 06N85W to 10N99W well\nSE of Tropical Storm Vance. It resumes well SW of Vance from \n08N113W to 1010 mb low pressure near 07N136W to 05N140W.\nScattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N\nto 10N between 77W and 89W, and from 00N to 10N between 132W and\n140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N\nbetween 100W and 105W, and from 00N to 04N between 112W and 119W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nTropical Storm Vance.\nNortherly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are fresh to near gale\nforce with seas to rough. Light to gentle winds, and slight to \nmoderate seas, prevail in the Gulf of California. Elsewhere, \noutside of Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds are mainly \nmoderate or weaker, with moderate seas, over the open waters off \nMexico. \nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Vance will move to 18.5N 108.7W\nWed morning, 20.2N 108.5W Wed evening, become post-tropical and \nmove to 21.7N 108.1W Thu morning, 23.5N 107.7W Thu evening, \nweaken to a remnant low near 25.3N 107.0W Fri morning, and \ndissipate Fri evening. Winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will \npulse fresh to near gale force through Thu night, then pulse \nmoderate to fresh thereafter. A developing low pressure and \nfrontal system may impact the Baja California Peninsula waters \nlate in the upcoming weekend with the potential for increasing \nwinds and building seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate \nseas will prevail otherwise. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate or weaker winds and moderate seas generally prevail. \nFor the forecast, fresh NE winds over and downstream of the Gulf\nof Papagayo will pulse to moderate to fresh speeds through the \nend of the week and into the upcoming weekend, locally strong at\ntimes this weekend. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse\nin the Gulf of Panama through the end of the week, locally \nstrong at times through mid-week. Moderate or weaker winds and \nmoderate seas will continue elsewhere, except mainly slight \nnearshore Colombia. Seas may briefly build to rough in SW swell \nS of the Equator by the end of the week.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Tropical \nStorm Vance.\nA slow moving cold front is over the far NW waters, with \nscattered moderate and isolated strong convection ahead of the \nfront. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are within 60 nm east\nof the front. High pressure prevails elsewhere N of about 20N. \nThe pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the \nmonsoon trough is supporting moderate to locally fresh tradewinds\nN of the monsoon trough to near 20N and between 120w and 136W. \nModerate seas are found over these waters. Moderate to fresh \nwinds, and rough seas are found S of 02N between 100W and 120W. \nAcross the remainder of the waters, winds are moderate or weaker\nwith moderate seas.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Vance will move to 18.5N 108.7W\nWed morning, 20.2N 108.5W Wed evening, become post-tropical and \nmove to 21.7N 108.1W Thu morning, 23.5N 107.7W Thu evening, \nweaken to a remnant low near 25.3N 107.0W Fri morning, and \ndissipate Fri evening. Fresh to locally strong SE to S winds \nover the NW part of the area will diminish to mostly fresh speeds\non Wed. Cross equatorial SW swell will spread northward through \nlate Wed, building seas to 7-10 ft S of 04N between 105W and 128W\nby late Wed night, while mixing with NE swells generated by \nVance. These rough seas are expected to linger through at least \nFri night, likely subsiding by the start of the weekend. \nElsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will \npersist through at least mid- week. A developing low pressure and\nfrontal system may impact the waters N of 20N by the end of the \nweek into the upcoming weekend with the potential for increasing \nwinds and building seas as the system shifts eastward.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1222532687004860423", "issued": "2026-10-28T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1222532687004860423"}