{"msg": "549\nAXPZ20 KNHC 272100\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Tue Oct 27 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2100 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Vance is centered near 17.2N 108.3W at 27/2100\nUTC, moving northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with\ngusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently around 13 ft or 4.0 m. \nVance remains a sheared tropical cyclone with convection limited \nto the SE side of the system. Numerous moderate to strong \nconvection is noted between 45 nm and 120 nm in the E semicircle.\nVance is moving northwestward and is forecast to remain on a NW \ntrack for the next day or two before starting to move northward. \nThe system is forecast to maintain its intensity for the next 48 \nhours before starting to weaken. Through Thursday, Vance is \nexpected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain across central and \nsouthern Sinaloa, western Durango, and northwestern Nayarit, with\nisolated higher totals of 7 inches possible over central and \nsouthern Sinaloa. This rainfall may produce flooding and \nmudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain. Swells \ngenerated by Vance will affect portions of the coast of southern,\nsouthwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days. \nThese swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip \ncurrent conditions. \nPlease consult products from your local weather office. Please \nread the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nVance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N101W. It resumes \nfrom 11N111W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong \nconvection is noted from 01N to 10N E of 87W, from 01N to 05N \nbetween 100W and 117W, and from 00N to 09N between 132W and \n140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nTropical Storm Vance.\nWinds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec have diminished below gale-\nforce. Currently, fresh to near- gale force winds, and rough\nseas, prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle\nwinds, and slight to moderate seas, prevail in the Gulf of\nCalifornia. Elsewhere, outside of Vance and the Gulf of \nTehuantepec, winds are mainly moderate or weaker, with moderate \nseas, over the open waters off Mexico. \nFor the forecast, Vance will move to 18.1N 108.7W Wed morning, \n19.7N 108.9W Wed afternoon, become post-tropical and move to \n21.2N 108.7W Thu morning, 22.9N 108.3W Thu afternoon, weaken to a\nremnant low near 24.7N 107.9W Fri morning, and dissipate Fri \nafternoon. Winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse fresh to \nnear gale force through Thu night, then pulse moderate to fresh \nthereafter. Moderate to locally fresh winds offshore Baja \nCalifornia Norte will diminish Wed. A developing low pressure and\nfrontal system may impact the Baja California Peninsula waters \nlate in the upcoming weekend with the potential for increasing \nwinds and building seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate \nseas will prevail otherwise. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to locally fresh NE winds are in and downwind of the \nGulf of Papagayo. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas \ngenerally prevail elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, fresh NE winds over and downstream of the Gulf\nof Papagayo will pulse to moderate to fresh speeds through the \nend of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh \nnortherly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through the end \nof the week, locally strong at times through mid-week. Moderate \nor weaker winds and moderate seas will continue elsewhere, except\nmainly slight nearshore Colombia. Seas may build to rough in SW \nswell S of the Equator by the end of the week.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Tropical \nStorm Vance.\nA cold front is over the far NW waters, with scattered moderate \nand isolated strong convection ahead of the front. Fresh to \nstrong winds and rough seas are within 60 nm east of the front. \nHigh pressure prevails elsewhere N of 20N. The pressure gradient \nbetween the area of high pressure and the monsoon trough is \nsupporting moderate tradewinds N of the monsoon trough to near \n20N and west of 110W. Moderate seas are found over these waters. \nModerate to fresh winds, and rough seas are found S of 02N \nbetween 100W and 120W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker \nwith moderate seas.\nFor the forecast, Vance will move to 18.1N 108.7W Wed morning, \n19.7N 108.9W Wed afternoon, become post-tropical and move to \n21.2N 108.7W Thu morning, 22.9N 108.3W Thu afternoon, weaken to a\nremnant low near 24.7N 107.9W Fri morning, and dissipate Fri \nafternoon. Fresh to locally strong SE to S winds over the NW part\nof the area will diminish to mostly fresh speeds by early on \nWed. Cross equatorial SW swell will spread northward through late\nWed, building seas to 7-10 ft S of 04N between 105W and 128W by \nlate Wed night, while mixing with NE swells generated by Vance. \nThese rough seas are expected to linger through at least Fri \nnight, likely subsiding by the start of the weekend. Elsewhere, \nmoderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will persist through \nat least mid- week.\nA developing low pressure and frontal system may impact the \nwaters N of 20N by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend \nwith the potential for increasing winds and building seas as the \nsystem shifts eastward.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1222457565404168199", "issued": "2026-10-27T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1222457565404168199"}