{"msg": "710\nAXPZ20 KNHC 271503\nTWDEP\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Tue Oct 27 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1450 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Vance is centered near 16.3N 107.7W at 27/1500\nUTC, moving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with\ngusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently around 18 ft or 5.5 m. \nVance remains a sheared tropical cyclone with convection limited \nto the SE side of the system. Numerous moderate to strong \nconvection is noted between 75 nm and 210 nm in the SE quadrant. \nVance is moving northwestward and is forecast to remain on a NW \ntrack for the next day or two before starting to move northward. \nThe system is forecast to maintain its intensity for the next 48 \nhours before starting to weaken. Through Thursday, Vance is \nexpected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain across central and \nsouthern Sinaloa, western Durango, and northwestern Nayarit, with\nisolated higher totals of 7 inches possible over central and \nsouthern Sinaloa. This rainfall may produce flooding and \nmudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain. Swells \ngenerated by Vance will affect portions of the coast of southern,\nsouthwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days. \nThese swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip \ncurrent conditions. \nPlease consult products from your local weather office. Please \nread the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nVance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nGulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient over\nthe region is supporting minimal gale force winds in the Gulf of\nTehuantepec with rough seas. Winds are forecast to diminish \nbelow gale force by mid-morning. Please read the latest High Seas\nForecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further \ndetails.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N100W. It resumes \nfrom 11N109W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong \nconvection is noted from 01N to 07N between 95W and 102W, from \n01N to 05N between 111W and 117W, and from 00N to 09N between \n130W and 140W. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nTropical Storm Vance and on a Gale Warning in the Gulf of\nTehuantepec.\nAway from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds are mainly\nmoderate or weaker, except locally fresh offshore Baja California\nNorte from near Punta Eugenia northward. Moderate seas prevail \naway from those Special Features areas, except slight in the \nnorthern and central Gulf of California, higher in the SE Gulf \ndue to swells associated with Vance.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Vance will move to 17.3N 108.2W\nthis evening, 19.0N 108.6W Wed morning, 20.7N 108.6W Wed \nevening, become post- tropical and move to 22.4N 108.3W Thu \nmorning, weaken to a remnant low near 24.3N 107.8W Thu evening, \nand dissipate Fri morning. Gale force northerly winds in the Gulf\nof Tehuantepec will diminish to fresh to near gale force mid- \nmorning, pulsing at those speeds through Thu night, then pulsing \nmoderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate to locally fresh winds \noffshore Baja California Norte will diminish Wed. A developing \nlow pressure and frontal system may impact the Baja California \nPeninsula waters late in the upcoming weekend with the potential \nfor increasing winds and building seas. Moderate or weaker winds \nand moderate seas will prevail otherwise. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to fresh NE winds are in and downwind of the Gulf of\nPapagayo. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas generally \nprevail elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, fresh NE winds over and downstream of the Gulf\nof Papagayo will pulse to moderate to fresh speeds through the \nend of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh \nnortherly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through the end \nof the week, locally strong at times through mid-week. Moderate \nor weaker winds and moderate seas will continue elsewhere, except\nmainly slight nearshore Colombia. Seas may build to rough in SW \nswell S of the Equator by the end of the week.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Tropical \nStorm Vance.\nA cold front has entered the far NW waters, with scattered\nmoderate to strong convection ahead of the front. Fresh to strong\nwinds and rough seas are within 60 nm east of the front. High \npressure prevails elsewhere N of 20N. The pressure gradient\nbetween the area of high pressure and the monsoon trough is\nsupporting moderate tradewinds N of the monsoon trough toe near\n20N and west of 110W. Moderate seas are found over these waters.\nModerate to fresh winds, and rough seas are found S of 02N\nbetween 98W and 120W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker\nwith moderate seas. \nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Vance will move to 17.3N 108.2W\nthis evening, 19.0N 108.6W Wed morning, 20.7N 108.6W Wed \nevening, become post- tropical and move to 22.4N 108.3W Thu \nmorning, weaken to a remnant low near 24.3N 107.8W Thu evening, \nand dissipate Fri morning. Fresh to locally strong SE to S winds\nover the NW part of the area will diminish to mostly fresh \nspeeds by early on Wed. Cross equatorial SW swell will spread\nnorthward through late Wed, building seas to 7-10 ft S of 04N \nbetween 105W and 128W by late Wed night, while mixing with NE \nswells generated by Vance. These rough seas are expected to \nlinger through at least Fri night, likely subsiding by the start \nof the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate \nseas will persist through at least mid- week.\nA developing low pressure and frontal system may impact the \nwaters N of 20N by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend \nwith the potential for increasing winds and building seas as the \nsystem shifts eastward.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1222387466719985671", "issued": "2026-10-27T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1222387466719985671"}