{"msg": "310\nAXPZ20 KNHC 270855\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Tue Oct 27 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0600 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Vance is centered near 15.9N 106.9W at 27/0900\nUTC, moving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with\ngusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently around 18 ft or 5.5 m. \nVance remains a sheared tropical cyclone with convection limited \nto the E side of the system. Numerous moderate to strong is noted\nbetween 75 nm and 210 nm in the E through SE quadrants. Vance is\nmoving toward the northwest. A northwestward motion is expected \nto continue today, followed by a gradual turn northward on \nWed. Little change in strength is expected during the next day \nor so, followed by gradual weakening. Periods of heavy rainfall \nassociated with Vance will impact portions of western Mexico \nduring much of this week. This rainfall may produce flooding and \nmudslides across central and southern Sinaloa, western Durango, \nand coastal sections of Nayarit and Jalisco, especially in areas \nalong steep terrain. Swells generated by Vance will affect \nportions of the coast of southern, southwestern and west-central \nMexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause\nlife-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult\nproducts from your local weather office. Please read the latest \nHIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at \nwebsite - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the \nlatest Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nGulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient over\nthe region along with nocturnal drainage flow is resulting in\nN-NE minimal gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with\nrough seas. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force by\nmid-morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by\nthe National Hurricane Center at website \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further \ndetails.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from the SW Caribbean Sea at\n12N75W to along the border of Colombia and Panama to 07N81W to\n08N86W to well SE of Tropical Storm Vance at 08N08W. It resumes\nwell SSW of Vance from 09N109W to 06N120W to 1011 mb low pressure\nat 07N133W to 04N140W. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong\nconvection is noted from 03.4S to 01N between 77W and 84W, and\nfrom 01N to 07N between 84W and 114W. Similar convection is noted\nfrom 00N to 06N between 130W and 140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nTropical Storm Vance and on a Gale Warning in the Gulf of\nTehuantepec.\nAway from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds are mainly\nmoderate or weaker, except locally fresh offshore Baja California\nNorte from near Punta Eugenia northward. Seas are moderate away \nfrom those Special Features areas, except slight in the northern \nand central Gulf of California, higher in the SE Gulf due to \nswells associated with Vance.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Tropical Storm Vance will move\nto 17.0N 107.8W this afternoon, 18.6N 108.4W Wed morning, 20.2N \n108.6W Wed afternoon, 21.7N 108.5W Thu morning, weaken to a \nremnant low near 23.9N 107.9W Thu afternoon, and dissipate Fri \nmorning.. Gale force northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec \nwill diminish to fresh to near gale force mid-morning, pulsing at\nthose speeds through Thu night, then pulsing at moderate to \nfresh thereafter. Moderate to locally fresh winds offshore Baja \nCalifornia Norte will diminish Wed. Looking ahead, a developing \nlow pressure and frontal system may impact the Baja California \nPeninsula waters late in the upcoming weekend with the potential \nfor increasing winds and building seas. Moderate or weaker winds \nand moderate seas will prevail otherwise.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to fresh NE winds are in and downwind of the Gulf of\nPapagayo. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are in the Gulf of\nPanama. Moderate seas dominate the offshore waters, except slight\nnearshore Colombia. Active convection is present from offshore\nsouthern Costa Rica southeastward to Ecuador, with the potential\nfor locally higher winds and seas.\nFor the forecast, fresh NE winds in and downstream of the Gulf \nof Papagayo will pulse to moderate to fresh speeds through the \nend of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh \nnortherly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through the end \nof the week, locally strong at times through mid-week. Otherwise,\nmoderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will continue \nelsewhere, except mainly slight nearshore Colombia. Looking \nahead, seas may build to a rough state in SW swell S of the \nEquator by the end of the week.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Tropical \nStorm Vance.\nHigh pressure covers the area generally north of about 18N. A\nfrontal system remains mainly WNW of the area, with an associated\ncold front touching 30N140W. Fresh to strong SE to S winds and\nrough seas are just ahead of the front in the far NW waters just\nSE of 30N140W. Meanwhile, 1010 mb low pressure is embedded in the\nmonsoon trough near 07N133W with a surface trough analyzed off to\nthe NE. The pressure gradient between these features and the high\nsupports moderate to fresh trades from roughly 13N to 21N \nbetween 115W and 135W. Winds are moderate or weaker across the \nremainder of the open waters, except locally fresh S of 03N\nbetween 95W and 115W. Moderate seas prevail away from Vance and \nthe NW corner, except to rough S of 03N between 95W and 125W in \nincoming SW swell mixing with NE swells generated from Tropical \nStorm Vance.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Vance will move to 17.0N 107.8W\nthis afternoon, 18.6N 108.4W Wed morning, 20.2N 108.6W Wed \nafternoon, 21.7N 108.5W Thu morning, weaken to a remnant low near\n23.9N 107.9W Thu afternoon, and dissipate Fri morning. \nMeanwhile, fresh to locally strong SE to S winds over the NW part\nof the area will diminish to mostly fresh speeds by early on Wed\nas the warm front pulls away from the region. Incoming SW swell \nwill continue to spread into a portion of the S-central waters \nthrough late Wed, building seas to the range of 7-10 ft S of \nabout 04N and between 105W and 128W by late Wed night, while \nmixing with old NE swells generated by Vance. These seas are \nexpected to linger through at least Fri night, likely subsiding \nby the start of the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds \nand moderate seas will persist through at least mid- week.\nLooking ahead, a developing low pressure and frontal system may \nimpact the waters N of 20N by the end of the week into the \nupcoming weekend with the potential for increasing winds and \nbuilding seas as the system shifts eastward.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1222314989411991559", "issued": "2026-10-27T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1222314989411991559"}