{"msg": "340\nAXPZ20 KNHC 270240\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Tue Oct 27 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0150 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Vance is centered near 15.5N 106.3W at 27/0300\nUTC, moving west at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55\nkt. Peak seas are currently around 20 ft or 6.0 m. Vance is a \nsheared tropical cyclone with numerous moderate to strong convection \nwithin 270 nm in the NE quadrant and 240 nm in the SE quadrant, with \nno convection in the W semicircle due to the shear. Vance is moving \ntoward the west. A turn to the northwest is expected on Tue, \nfollowed by a northward turn on Wed. Gradual weakening is forecast \nduring the next few days. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with \nVance will impact portions of western Mexico during much of this \nweek. This rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides across \nsouthern Sinaloa, southwest Durango, and coastal sections of Nayarit \nand Jalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain. Swells \ngenerated by Vance will affect portions of the coast of southern, \nsouthwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days. These \nswells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current \nconditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. \nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Vance \nNHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for \nmore details.\nGulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient over\nthe region along with nocturnal drainage flow is resulting in\nN-NE minimal gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with\nrough seas. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force by\nmid-morning Tue. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast \nissued by the National Hurricane Center at website \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further \ndetails.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from 09N76W to 07N99W to well SE\nof Tropical Storm Vance at 09N102W. It resumes well SW of Vance\nat 09N109W to 05N129W to 1010 mb low pressure near 07N133W to\n04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is\nnoted from 02S to 07N between 80W and 92W. Isolated to widely \nscattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 09N between \n98W and 110W, and from 00N to 10N between 127W and 140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nTropical Storm Vance and on a Gale Warning in the Gulf of\nTehuantepec.\nAway from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds are mainly\nmoderate or weaker, except locally fresh offshore Baja California\nNorte. Seas are moderate away from those Special Features areas,\nexcept slight in the northern and central Gulf of California,\nhigher in the SE Gulf due to swells associated with Vance.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Vance will move to 15.9N 107.1W\nTue morning, 17.2N 107.9W Tue evening, 18.8N 108.3W Wed morning,\n20.5N 108.3W Wed evening, 22.0N 108.1W Thu morning, and weaken \nto a remnant low near 23.5N 107.6W Thu evening. Vance will \ndissipate late Fri. Gale force northerly winds in the Gulf of\nTehuantepec will diminish to fresh to near gale force Tue mid-\nmorning, pulsing at those speeds through Thu night, then pulsing\nat moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate to locally fresh winds\noffshore Baja California Norte will diminish Wed. Looking ahead,\na developing low pressure and frontal system may impact the Baja\nCalifornia Peninsula waters late in the upcoming weekend with the\npotential for increasing winds and building seas. Moderate or\nweaker winds and moderate seas will prevail otherwise.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to fresh NE winds are in and downwind of the Gulf of\nPapagayo. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are in the Gulf of\nPanama. Moderate seas dominate the offshore waters, except slight\nnearshore Colombia. Active convection is present along the coast\nand inland of Colombia and Ecuador, and well offshore of those\nwaters also with the potential for locally higher winds and seas.\nFor the forecast, fresh NE winds in and downstream of the Gulf \nof Papagayo will pulse to moderate to fresh speeds through the \nend of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh \nnortherly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through the end \nof the week, locally strong at times through mid-week. Otherwise,\nmoderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will continue \nelsewhere, except mainly slight nearshore Colombia. Looking \nahead, seas may build to a rough state in SW swell S of the \nEquator by the end of the week.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Tropical \nStorm Vance.\nHigh pressure covers the area generally north of about 18N. A\nfrontal system remains mainly WNW of the area, with an associated\ncold front touching 30N140W. Fresh to strong SE to S winds and\nrough seas are just ahead of the front in the far NW waters just\nSE of 30N140W. Meanwhile, 1010 mb low pressure is embedded in the\nmonsoon trough near 07N133W with a surface trough analyzed off to\nthe NE. The pressure gradient between these features and the high\nsupports moderate to fresh trades from roughly 14N to 20N between\n115W and 135W. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder\nof the open waters, except locally fresh S of the Equator and E\nof 115W. Moderate seas prevail away from Vance and the NW corner,\nexcept to rough S of 02N between 95W and 120W in incoming SW\nswell mixing with NE swells generated from Tropical Storm Vance.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Vance will move to 15.9N 107.1W\nTue morning, 17.2N 107.9W Tue evening, 18.8N 108.3W Wed morning,\n20.5N 108.3W Wed evening, 22.0N 108.1W Thu morning, and weaken \nto a remnant low near 23.5N 107.6W Thu evening. Vance will \ndissipate late Fri. Meanwhile, fresh to locally strong SE to S winds\nover the NW part of the area will diminish to mostly fresh \nspeeds by early on Wed as the warm front pulls away from the \nregion. Incoming SW swell will continue to spread into a portion\nof the S-central waters through late Wed, building seas to the \nrange of 7-10 ft S of about 04N and between 105W and 128W by \nlate Wed night, while mixing with old NE swells generated by\nVance. These seas are expected to linger through at least Fri \nnight, likely subsiding by the start of the weekend. Elsewhere,\nmoderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will persist through\nat least mid-week.\nLooking ahead, a developing low pressure and frontal system may \nimpact the waters N of 20N by the end of the week into the \nupcoming weekend with the potential for increasing winds and \nbuilding seas as the system shifts eastward.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1222241213520052231", "issued": "2026-10-27T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1222241213520052231"}