{"msg": "012\nAXPZ20 KNHC 262214 CCA\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion...Corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Mon Oct 26 2026\nCorrected Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2145 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Vance is centered near 15.4N 106.1W, or about 240\nnm SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico at 26/2100 UTC, moving west at 5 \nkt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum \nsustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are \ncurrently around 23 ft or 7 m. Vance is continuing to be \ninflicted by westerly vertical wind shear. Satellite imagery \nshows numerous strong convection within 150 nm of the center in \nthe N semicircle and 30 nm of the center in the S semicircle. \nVance is forecast to make a turn to the northwest on Tue, \nfollowed by a northward turn on Wed. Gradual weakening is\nforecast during the next few days. Vance is expected to produce\n2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated higher totals of 7 inches \npossible, across southern Sinaloa, southwest Durango and coastal \nsections of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima and Michoacan. This rainfall\nmay produce flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along \nsteep terrain. Swell generated by Vance will affect portions of \nthe coast of southern, southwestern and west-central Mexico during \nthe next few days. This swell is likely to cause life-threatening \nsurf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your \nlocal weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST \nissued by the National Hurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Vance \nNHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for \nmore details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from along the coast of NW \nColombia to across central Panama, and continues to 08N82W to\n06N90W and to 12N100W. It resumes well southwest of Vance \nat 09.5N110W to 06N121W to low pressure near 07.5N133W 1012 mb\nand to 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection\nis from 03S to 06N between 80W-86W, also from 02N to 07N between\n96W-100W. Similar activity is within 120 nm south of trough \nbetween 131W-135W, and within 60 nm north of the trough between \n133W-135W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm either \nside of the trough between 120W-122W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nTropical Storm Vance.\nLatest Ascat scatterometer data reveals that the Gulf of\nTehuantepec north to northeast gale-force gap winds have lowered\nto just below gale-force maxing out to 30 kt. Seas with these \nwinds are 8 to 11 ft. Moderate or lighter winds are elsewhere \nover the Mexican offshore waters. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in mixed \nsoutheast and southwest long-priod swell. The exception is \noffshore Baja California north of about Punta Eugenia, where \nmostly moderate northwest to north fresh winds are present as \nsuggested in the latest Ascat scatterometer data pass. Fresh \nnorthwest to north winds are just north of 29N. Seas over these \nwaters are 4 to 6 ft. Seas of 3 to 5 ft in southeast long-period \nswell are out ahead of Vance are in the extreme southern Gulf of \nCalifornia and southward from there to 23N, then increase to 6 to 8 \nft toward Cabo Corrientes.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Vance is forecast to gradually \nweaken as it moves to near 15.6N 106.9W late tonight, to near\n16.7N 107.9W Tue afternoon with maximum sustained winds 45 kt \ngusts 55 kt, to near 18.1N 108.4W late Tue night, to near 19.8N \n108.6W Wed afternoon, to near 21.3N 108.4W late Wed night with \nmaximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, then weaken to a \nremnant low near 22.6N 108.2W Thu afternoon. Vance is forecast to\ndissipate Fri afternoon. Otherwise, the north to northeast strong\nto near gale-force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are \nexpected to hold steady through tonight, then diminish to fresh \nto strong speeds early on Tue as the gradient over southeastern \nMexico just north of the Tehuantepec region continues to relax. \nSeas in the Gulf are expected to subside to below 8 ft on Tue. \nWinds there will then pulse at fresh to strong speeds through Thu\nnight, but over a smaller area downstream of the Gulf. Winds \noffshore Baja California Norte will change little through late \nWed. Moderate, or lighter winds along with moderate seas will \nprevail elsewhere away from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, \nexcept mainly slight seas in the Gulf of California through late \nWed.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nThe latest Ascat scatterometer data pass highlighted fresh\nnortheast winds in the Gulf of Papagayo and downstream from \nthere to near 09N89W. Seas over these waters are 4 to 6 ft\nas indicated by a couple of satellite altimeter data passes.\nThe latest Ascat scatterometer data pass also shows moderate \nto fresh northwest to north winds in the Gulf of Panama.\nElsewhere, winds are moderate, or lighter along with mostly \nmoderate seas, except slight seas continue nearshore Colombia. \nThe very active convection that earlier was offshore Ecuador, \nColombia and Panama has shifted westward and weakened.\nFor the forecast, the fresh northeast winds in and downstream of\nthe Gulf of Papagayo will pulse to moderate to fresh speeds \nthrough the end of the week. The fresh northwest to north winds \nin the Gulf of Panama will diminish early Tue, then start up late\nWed night. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas\nwill continue elsewhere, except mainly slight nearshore Colombia.\nLooking ahead, seas may build to a rough state in southwest south of \nthe Equator by the end of the week.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Tropical \nStorm Vance.\nHigh pressure covers the area generally north of about 18N and \nwest of 110W. A recent Ascat scatterometer data pass indicates \nmoderate to fresh trades from 14N to 18N between 120W and 130W, \nor rather between the high pressure and a trough that extends \nnorthward along 133W to 13N from a weak low pressure of 1010 mb \nalong the monsoon trough. A warm front dips into the northwest \npart of the area from 30N139W to 28N138W. The related gradient is\nproducing fresh to locally strong southeast to south winds and \nrough seas just southeast of 30N140W. Winds are moderate, or \nlighter along with moderate seas across the remainder of the open\nwaters away from Vance.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Vance is forecast to gradually \nweaken as it moves to near 15.6N 106.9W late tonight, to near\n16.7N 107.9W Tue afternoon with maximum sustained winds 45 kt \ngusts 55 kt, to near 18.1N 108.4W late Tue night, to near 19.8N \n108.6W Wed afternoon, to near 21.3N 108.4W late Wed night with \nmaximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, then weaken to a \nremnant low near 22.6N 108.2W Thu afternoon Elsewhere, moderate \nor weaker winds and moderate seas will persist into at least late\nWed. The fresh to locally strong southeast to south winds over \nthe northwest part of the area will diminish to mostly fresh \nspeeds by early on Wed as the warm front pulls away from the \nregion. A new set of southerly swell will continue to spread into\na portion of the south- central waters through late Wed, \nbuilding seas to the range of 7 to 10 ft south of about 04N and \nbetween 105W and 128W by late Wed night. These seas are expected \nto linger through at least Fri night.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1222189034793730055", "issued": "2026-10-26T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1222189034793730055"}