{"id": "1222169203907100679", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-26T21:00:00Z", "msg": "361\nWTPA43 PHFO 262033\nTCDCP3\n \nTropical Depression Olana Discussion Number   6\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP032026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Mon Oct 26 2026\n \nIt has been 6-9 hours since Olana has produced any organized \nconvection close to its center. In fact, the remaining convection \nhas become even more removed from the broad circulation, primarily \noriented in a fragmented band stretching from Johnston Atoll \nsouthward, more than 200 n mi away from the estimated center. If \norganized convection does not return near Olana's center soon, the \ndepression will likely be declared a remnant low later today. For \nnow, the intensity is held at a possibly generous 30 kt.\n \nThe exposed low-level circulation continues to move slowly to the \nsoutheast, estimated at 140/3 kt. The system is primarily being \nsteered by low-level flow that is light and variable, due to \ncompeting low-level ridges, both to the south and north of the \ncyclone. The NHC track forecast shows Olana, or its remnants, making \na slow drift from southeastward to northeastward over the next 24 to \n48 hours. This forecast solution is roughly a blend of the simple \nand corrected consensus track aids. \n \nHigh vertical wind shear from an upper-level trough and plenty of \nnearby dry air are likely to suppress new convective development \nnear the circulation in the short term, and Olana is now forecast to \nbecome a remnant low later today. The global and hurricane-regional \nmodel guidance also show the circulation becoming increasingly \nstretched out with the system forecast to degenerate into a trough \nin 48-60 h. It is worth mentioning that, towards the end of this \nweek, some model solutions show the upper-level trough cutting off \nand interacting with Olana's remnants. This evolution could result \nin some baroclinic redevelopment of the circulation during that \ntime, though enough uncertainty remains to not depict this solution \nright now. Although Olana is forecast to dissipate prior to reaching \nJohnston Atoll, shower and thunderstorm activity displaced well \nnortheast of the center is already reaching the area, and could \nproduce gusty winds and heavy rainfall over the next couple of \ndays. \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  26/2100Z 13.6N 176.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  27/0600Z 13.3N 176.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  27/1800Z 13.5N 175.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  28/0600Z 14.0N 174.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  28/1800Z 14.5N 174.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  29/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}