{"msg": "196\nAXNT20 KNHC 261638\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Mon Oct 26 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1630 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nAtlantic Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between a 1031 mb high \npressure system over the eastern United States and a stationary \nfront extending from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas supports a \nlarge area of strong winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, \nacross much of the waters N of 27N and W of the front. Rough to\nvery rough seas in N to NE swell follow the front. The portion of\nthe front east of 70W is expected to begin to drift southeastward\nTue through Wed night as a cold front before becoming stationary \nagain late this week. The aforementioned ridge will shift slowly \neastward into the north Atlantic during this time. The frequent\ngusts to gale-force will diminish tonight, however, fresh to strong\nwinds and rough to very rough seas in NE swell to the north of \nthe front will persist through the period. Mariners are urged to \nremain alert to these dangerous marine conditions and take the \nnecessary precautions to avoid these affected areas. Please, see\nthe latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website \nhttps:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. \nHeavy Rainfall in the Northern Caribbean: Deep-layer troughing \nextending southward through the Bahamas into the NW Caribbean \ncombined with abundant tropical moisture will support periods of \nheavy rainfall over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, the southern \nBahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands into midweek. The trough\nwill gradually shift N and E early this week, while weakening. \nVery heavy rainfall will bring a potential for dangerous and life-\nthreatening flash flooding, particularly over portion of eastern \nCuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic. Please refer to your \nlocal weather services and the International Desk at the Weather \nPrediction Center for more information.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14.5N17W and extends\nsouthwestward to 07.5N25W. The ITCZ extends from 07.5N25W to \n07N41W, and then from 09N50W to 10N60W. A surface trough is \nanalyzed from 14N44W to 06N45W. Scattered moderate convection is \nobserved from 04N to 10N and between 22W and 30W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA tight pressure gradient between a 1031 mb high pressure system \nover the eastern United States and a stationary front extending \ninto the Bahamas supports fresh to strong NE-E winds and rough \nseas over the E Gulf waters, including the Florida Straits. \nModerate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a 1031 mb \nhigh pressure system over the eastern United States and a \nstationary front extending from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas \nsupports fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas over the E \nGulf waters, including the Florida Straits. This weather pattern \nwill persist into midweek, followed by diminishing winds and seas \ninto next weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and \nmoderate seas will prevail during much of the workweek. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nSee Special Features section above for information on heavy\nrainfall over eastern Cuba and Hispaniola. \nAn upper-level low spinning over central Cuba combined with \nabundant tropical moisture supports a band of shower with embedded\nthunderstorms across the central Caribbean and Hispaniola, \nincluding also the Windward Passage. Moderate to locally fresh \neasterly winds and moderate seas are occurring east of 72W. \nModerate to locally fresh NW to N winds are also occurring over \nthe Gulf of Honduras along with seas 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, \nmoderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, the upper-level low will drift eastward through\nmid- week keeping the chance of showers and thunderstorms over \nthe central Caribbean and Hispaniola. Meanwhile, the surface \ntrough over the central Caribbean will drift westward over the \nnext few days. Strong high pressure across the eastern U.S. will \ncontinue to build southward across Florida and the Gulf of America\nthrough midweek, leading to moderate to fresh N winds and \nmoderate seas across the western Caribbean W of the trough through\nlate Tue. Expect rough seas in large north swell across the \nYucatan Channel through early Tue. Otherwise, moderate to fresh E \nto SE winds in the E Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate\nspeeds by tonight. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information\nabout a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic, and on heavy\nrainfall expected for the Turks and Caicos Islands and \nHispaniola.\nScattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring\nbetween 64W and 78.5W in association with the stationary front \nand surface troughs described in the Special Features section. \nSouth of the front, moderate to fresh SE to S winds and rough to \nvery rough seas are occurring and extend eastward to 60W. Farther \neast, a cold front stretches across the central Atlantic and \nmoderate easterly winds and rough seas are noted north of 29N and \nbetwen 38W and 53W. The remainder of the basin is under a broad \nsubtropical ridge that supports moderate to locally fresh easterly\ntrades winds south of 25N and seas of 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, light to\ngentle winds and moderate seas are prevalent.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a tight pressure gradient between a\n1031 mb high pressure system over the eastern United States and a\nstationary front extending from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas \nsupports a large area of strong winds, with frequent gusts to gale\nforce, across much of the waters N of 27N and W of the front. \nRough to very rough seas in N to NE swell follow the front. The \nportion of the front east of 70W is expected to begin to drift \nsoutheastward Tue through Wed night as a cold front before \nbecoming stationary again late this week. The aforementioned ridge\nwill shift slowly eastward into the north Atlantic during this \ntime. The frequent gusts to gale-force will diminish tonight, \nhowever, fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas in NE \nswell to the north of the front will persist through the period. \nMariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine \nconditions and take the necessary precautions to avoid these \naffected areas. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1222122924625264647", "issued": "2026-10-26T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1222122924625264647"}