{"msg": "821\nAXPZ20 KNHC 261541\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Mon Oct 26 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1530 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Vance is centered near 15.4N 105.7W, or about 230\nnm SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico at 26/1500 UTC, moving west- \nnorthwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. \nMaximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak \nseas are currently around 23 ft or 7 m. Vance is still being \nimpacted by west to southwest vertical wind shear. Satellite\nimagery shows numerous strong convection within 150 nm of the\ncenter in the NE semicircle and 30 nm of the center in the \nSW semicircle of the center. Vance is forecast to maintain \nits present motion for the next day or so, followed by a turn to\nthe northwest on Tue and north on Wed. Gradual weakening is\nforecast during the next several days. Vance is expected to \nproduce 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated higher totals of 7 \ninches possible, across southern Sinaloa, southwest Durango and \ncoastal sections of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima and Michoacan. This \nrainfall may produce flooding and mudslides, especially in areas \nalong steep terrain. Swell generated by Vance will affect portions\nof the coast of southern, southwestern and west-central Mexico \nduring the next few days. This swell is likely to cause life- \nthreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult \nproducts from your local weather office. Please read the latest \nHIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at \nwebsite - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the \nlatest Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nGulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient over \nMexico from strong high pressure ridging is currently supporting \nnorth to northeast winds of 25 to 35 kt in the Gulf of\nTehuantepec as detected by overnight Ascat scatterometer data. \nThese winds are forecast to diminish to just below gale force by \nearly this afternoon as the gradient slackens some. Resultant \nlocally rough seas will slowly subside through Tue. Please read \nthe latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane \nCenter at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml \nfor further details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from NW Colombia to across \nsouthern Panama, and continues to 08N79W to 09N90W and to \n12N100W. It resumes well to the southwest of Vance at \n09N110W to 07N120W to low pressure near 09N130W 1010 mb and \nto 06N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from \n01N to 08N between 92W-100W. Scattered moderate to isolated\nstrong convection is within 60 nm south of the trough \nbetween 132W-135W. Scattered moderate convection is within \n60 nm south of the trough between 110W-113W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nTropical Storm Vance, and on a soon to end Gale Warning for the \nGulf of Tehuantepec. \nAside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Tropical Storm Vance, \nwinds are moderate or weaker, except locally fresh offshore Baja\nCalifornia from near Punta Eugenia northward. Seas are moderate \naway from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, except slight\nin the Gulf of California away from the entrance where they are \nhigher due to SE swells moving in from Vance.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Vance is forecast to gradually\nweaken as it moves to near 15.7N 106.6W this evening, to near\n16.4N 107.6W Tue morning with maximum sustained winds 40 kt \ngusts 50 kt, maintain intensity as it nears 17.6N 108.2W Tue \nevening, to near 19.2N 108.4W Wed morning, to near 20.7N 108.4W \nWed evening with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, and \nweaken to a remnant low near 22.0N 108.2W Thu morning. Vance will\nchange little in intensity as it moves to near 24.1N 108.0W \nearly on Fri. Elsewhere, north to northeast gale-force gap winds \nin the Gulf of Tehuantepec are expected to diminish to just below\ngale force by early this afternoon as the gradient slackens \nsome. Resultant seas will slowly subside through Tue. Winds there\nwill then pulse at fresh to strong speeds through Thu night. \nModerate to fresh winds will pulse nearshore Baja California \nNorte through Tue evening. Moderate or weaker winds along with \nmoderate seas will prevail elsewhere away from Vance and the Gulf\nof Tehuantepec, except mainly slight seas in the Gulf of \nCalifornia.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong northeast winds and moderate seas are over and \ndownstream the Gulf of Papagayo while fresh northwest to north \nwinds are in the Gulf of Panama. Winds are moderate or weaker \nelsewhere with moderate seas, except slight seas nearshore \nColombia. Very active convection remains present offshore \nEcuador, Colombia and Panama as described above with locally \nhigher winds and seas possible.\nFor the forecast, the present fresh to strong northeast winds \nover and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo will diminish to \nmostly fresh speeds this afternoon, then pulse to moderate to \nfresh speeds through the end of the week. The fresh northwest to\nnorth winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish early Tue, then\nstart up late Wed night. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and\nmoderate seas will continue elsewhere, except mainly slight \nnearshore Colombia. Looking ahead, seas may build to rough state\nin southwest south of the Equator by the end of the week.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Tropical \nStorm Vance.\nHigh pressure covers the area generally north of about 19N and\nwest of 110W. Overnight Ascat scatterometer data indicated \nmoderate to fresh northeast to east winds from 14N to 18N \nbetween 120W and 130W, or rather between the high pressure and \nnorthward troughing along the monsoon trough near 130W. A frontal\nsystem is just west-northwest of 30N140W. The associated warm \nfront reaches southeastward from 30N140W to 28N138W. The related \ngradient is producing fresh to locally strong southeast to south\nwinds and rough seas just southeast of 30N140W. Winds are \nmoderate or weaker with moderate seas across the remainder of the\nopen waters away from Vance.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Vance is forecast to gradually \nweaken as it moves to near 15.7N 106.6W this evening, to near \n16.4N 107.6W Tue morning with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts\n50 kt, maintain intensity as it nears 17.6N 108.2W Tue evening, \nto near 19.2N 108.4W Wed morning, to near 20.7N 108.4W Wed \nevening with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, and \nweaken to a remnant low near 22.0N 108.2W Thu morning. Vance will\nchange little in intensity as it moves to near 24.1N 108.0W \nearly on Fri. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate \nseas will persist into around the middle part of the week. Swells\ngenerated from a frontal system just WNW of the discussion \nwaters will support with fresh to locally strong SE to S winds \nover the far NW portion of the area into the early part of the \nweek. These conditions will spread slightly eastward over the \nwaters roughly north of about 28N and west of 138W through Wed. \nMeanwhile, a new set of southerly swell is expected to spread \ninto the S-central waters later today, building seas to a rough \nstate over the waters south of about 05N between 105W and 130W by\nlate Wed night. These seas are expected to linger through at \nleast Fri night.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1222111789146537991", "issued": "2026-10-26T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1222111789146537991"}