{"id": "1222098844211937287", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-26T15:00:00Z", "msg": "406\nWTPA43 PHFO 261436\nTCDCP3\n \nTropical Depression Olana Discussion Number   5\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP032026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Mon Oct 26 2026\n \nOlana's structure on satellite imagery has rapidly degraded early\nthis morning. The deep convection that had been near the center\nyesterday has separated well off to the northeast, leaving behind a\nbroad low-level swirl that is south of the previous satellite\nestimates. This degradation in structure is likely due to increasing\nsouthwesterly vertical wind shear that has led to the circulation\ndecoupling vertically overnight. Consequently, subjective and\nobjective intensity estimates are decreasing, and Olana is being\ndowngraded to a tropical depression in this advisory with maximum\nsustained winds of 30 kt.\n \nAs noted above, Olana's circulation has been moving south of the\nprevious forecast track, and the initial motion is slowly off to the\nsoutheast or 140 degrees at 4 kt. Now that the circulation has\nbecome vertically shallow, its motion will mostly be governed by\nlight and variable low-level steering, due to the competing\ninfluences of a westerly wind burst to Olana's south and a weak\nlow-level ridge to the cyclone's north. The NHC track forecast has\nbeen adjusted southward, mostly due to the change in the initial\nposition. This track attempts to blend the faster and eastward HFIP\nCorrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) with the much slower ECMWF\n(EMXI) track aids.\n \nIncreasing vertical wind shear from an upper-level trough, coupled\nwith dry air entrainment should ultimately lead to Olana's demise\nover the next couple of days. Given the current degraded structure,\nthe latest forecast now shows the tropical cyclone degenerating into\na remnant low in 24 hours, and this could occur sooner if convection\ndoes not soon return closer to the circulation center. Thereafter,\nthe model guidance shows the upper-level trough cutting off and\ninteracting with Olana's remnants. This could result in some\nbaroclinic redevelopment in 3-4 days, though the majority of the\nguidance shows Olana's circulation becoming too elongated to be\ntrackable before that time, and dissipation is now shown in 60\nhours.\n \nBased on the latest forecast, Olana is expected to dissipate prior\nto reaching Johnston Atoll. However, the sheared shower and\nthunderstorm activity displaced well northeast of the center could\naffect the area over the next couple of days, producing gusty winds\nand heavy rainfall.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  26/1500Z 13.9N 176.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  27/0000Z 13.7N 176.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 24H  27/1200Z 13.5N 176.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  28/0000Z 13.8N 175.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  28/1200Z 14.3N 174.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 60H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}