{"msg": "953\nAXNT20 KNHC 261012\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Mon Oct 26 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0955 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nAtlantic Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high\npressure building southward through the Mid-Atlantic U.S. and low\npressure south of Bermuda and an associated stationary front\nextending into the Bahamas will continue to induce widespread\nstrong to gale-froce NE to E winds and very rough seas to 19 ft. \nGales will be present N of 27N between 65W and 72W, with a \nbroader area of very rough seas N of 24N and W of 60W. The \nportion of the front east of 70W is expected to begin to drift \nsoutheastward Tue through Wed night as a cold front before \nbecoming stationary again late this week. The aforementioned ridge\nwill shift slowly eastward into the north Atlantic during this \ntime. The gale-force winds will diminish tonight, however, fresh \nto strong winds and rough to very rough seas in NE swell to the \nnorth of the front will persist through the period. Mariners are \nurged to remain alert to these dangerous marine conditions and \ntake the necessary precautions to avoid these affected areas. \nPlease, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the \nNational Hurricane Center at website \nhttps:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. \nHeavy Rainfall in the Northern Caribbean: Deep-layer troughing \nextending southward through the Bahamas into the NW Caribbean \ncombined with abundant tropical moisture will support periods of \nheavy rainfall over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, the southern \nBahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands into midweek. The \ntrough will gradually shift N and E early this week, while \nweakening. Very heavy rainfall will bring a potential for \ndangerous and life- threatening flash flooding, particularly over \nportion of center Cuba and Haiti. Please refer to your local \nweather services and the International Desk at the Weather \nPrediction Center for more information.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea\nnear 11N15W to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W to 06N37W, and\nthen from 08N44W to 08N55W. A surface trough is analyzed from\n14N36W to 07N41W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from\n02N to 09N and between 17W and 27W. Similar convection is noted\neast of the surface trough.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA tight pressure gradient between a 1032 mb high pressure system \nover the eastern United States and a stationary front extending \ninto the Bahamas supports fresh to strong NE-E winds and rough \nseas over the E Gulf waters, including the Florida Straits.\nModerate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, the aforementioned tight pressure gradient will\nsustain fresh to strong NE-E winds and rough seas over the E Gulf\nwaters, including the Florida Straits through midweek, followed \nby diminishing winds and seas into next weekend. Elsewhere, gentle\nto locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas will prevail \nduring much of the workweek..\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nSee Special Features section above for information on heavy\nrainfall over eastern Cuba and Hispaniola. \nThe combination of a deep mid- to upper-level trough extending \nfrom the western Atlantic to the NW Caribbean and a surface trough\nover the SE Bahamas and E Cuba and Hispaniola result scattered to\nnumerous showers and thunderstorms between 69W and 75W, impacting\nE Cuba and Hispaniola. Similar convection is noted off NW Colombia\nand E Panama. Rough seas are evident in the Yucatan channel. Moderate\nto fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring east of \n70W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate \nseas prevail.\nFor the forecast, the aforementioned mid-to upper-level trough will\ndrift eastward through Wed, supporting scattered to numerous \nshowers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean and Windward \nPassage. Meanwhile, a surface trough over the central Caribbean \nwill drift westward over the next few days. Strong high pressure \nacross the eastern U.S. will continue to build southward across \nFlorida and the Gulf of America through midweek, leading to \nmoderate to fresh N winds and moderate seas across the western \nCaribbean W of the trough through late Tue. Expect rough seas in \nlarge north swell across the Yucatan Channel late tonight through \nearly Tue. Otherwise, moderate to fresh E-SE winds in the E \nCaribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by tonight. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information\nabout a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic, and on heavy\nrainfall expected for the Turks and Caicos Islands and \nHispaniola.\nScattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring\nbetween 67W and 78W in association with the stationary front and\nsurface troughs described in the Special Features section. South\nof the front, moderate to fresh southerly winds and rough to very\nrough seas are occurring and extend eastward to 60W. Farther east,\na stationary front stretches across the central Atlantic and\nmoderate easterly winds and rough seas are noted north of 29N and\nbetwen 35W and 60W. The remainder of the basin is under a broad\nsubtropical ridge that supports moderate to locally fresh easterly\ntrades winds south of 25N and seas of 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, light to\ngentle winds and moderate seas are prevalent.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a tight pressure gradient between a robust ridge\nover the NW Atlantic and the eastern United States and a stationary\nfront extending from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas supports a \nlarge area of strong to gale-force NE-E winds across the western \nand central offshore zones, along and north of the stationary \nfront. Very rough seas to 19 ft are occurring north of the front. \nThe portion of the front east of 70W is expected to begin to drift\nsoutheastward Tue through Wed night as a cold front before \nbecoming stationary again late this week. The aforementioned ridge\nwill shift slowly eastward into the north Atlantic during this \ntime. The gale-force winds will diminish tonight, however, fresh \nto strong winds and rough to very rough seas in NE swell to the \nnorth of the front will persist through the period. Mariners are \nurged to remain alert to these dangerous marine conditions and \ntake the necessary precautions to avoid these affected areas. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1222047107702292483", "issued": "2026-10-26T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1222047107702292483"}