{"msg": "339\nAXPZ20 KNHC 260838\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Mon Oct 26 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0600 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Vance is centered near 15.3N 105.1W at 26/0900\nUTC, moving northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with\ngusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are currently around 23 ft or 7 m. \nNumerous moderate isolated to scattered strong convection is \nnoted within 60 nm of the center. Numerous moderate convection is\nelsewhere within 120 nm of the center, except within 210 nm in \nthe NE quadrant. Vance is moving toward the northwest. A west- \nnorthwestward motion is expected over the next day or so, \nfollowed by a turn toward the north around midweek. Gradual \nweakening is forecast for the next several days. Periods of \nheavy rainfall associated with Vance will impact portions of \nwestern Mexico during much of this week. This rainfall may \nproduce flooding and mudslides across Colima, Nayarit, and \nSinaloa, along with western portions of Michoac\u00e1n, Jalisco, and \nDurango, especially in areas along steep terrain. Swells \ngenerated by Vance will affect portions of the coast of southern \nand southwestern Mexico during the next several days. These \nswells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current \nconditions. Please consult products from your local weather \noffice. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the \nNational Hurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nVance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nGulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient over \nMexico from strong high pressure ridging is currently supporting \nnorth to northeast winds of 25 to 35 kt in the Gulf of\nTehuantepec as measured by recent ASCAT scatterometer data\nconfirming minimal gales. These winds are forecast to diminish \nto just below gale force by early this afternoon as the gradient\nslackens some. Resultant locally rough seas will slowly subside \nthrough Tue. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by \nthe National Hurricane Center at website \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further \ndetails.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from the SW Caribbean Sea at\n11N76W to across the Gulf of Panama to 07N82.5W to 08N87W to\n06.5N95W to 08N99.5W well SE of Tropical Storm Vance, then\nresumes well SW of Vance from 08N111W to 1009 mb low pressure\nnear 07N132.5W to 06.5N135W. The ITCZ extends from 06.5N135W to\n07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted\nfrom 03.4S to 09N between 77W and 81W, and from 00N to 11N \nbetween 89W and 105W. Similar convection is noted from 02.5N to \n04.5N between 131W and 134W, and from 01N to 02.5N between 137W \nand 140W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nTropical Storm Vance, and on a Gale Warning for the Gulf of \nTehuantepec. \nAside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Tropical Storm Vance, \nwinds are moderate or weaker, except locally fresh offshore Baja\nCalifornia from near Punta Eugenia northward. Seas are moderate \naway from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, except slight\nin the Gulf of California away from the entrance where they are \nhigher due to SE swells moving in from Vance.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Vance will move to 15.6N 105.9W\nthis afternoon, 16.1N 106.9W Tue morning, 17.2N 107.6W Tue \nafternoon, 18.5N 108.0W Wed morning, 19.9N 108.1W Wed afternoon, \nand 21.4N 108.0W Thu morning. Vance will weaken to a remnant low \nover 23.2N 107.9W early Fri. Elsewhere, N-NE gale force gap \nwinds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are expected to diminish to just\nbelow gale force by early this afternoon as the gradient \nslackens some. Resultant seas will slowly subside through Tue. \nWinds there will then pulse at fresh to strong speeds through Thu\nnight. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse nearshore Baja \nCalifornia Norte through Tue evening. Moderate or weaker winds \nalong with moderate seas will prevail elsewhere away from Vance \nand the Gulf of Tehuantepec, except mainly slight seas in the \nGulf of California.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to locally fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas are \nover and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to fresh NW \nwinds are in the Gulf of Panama. Winds are moderate or weaker \nelsewhere with moderate seas, except slight seas nearshore \nColombia. Very active convection is present offshore Ecuador,\nColombia and Panama as described above with locally higher winds\nand seas possible.\nFor the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse in\nthe Gulf of Papagayo at times through the week, except fresh to\nstrong later this morning. Moderate to fresh NW winds will pulse\nin the Gulf of Panama through this evening, and then again \nstarting late Wed night. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and \nmoderate seas will continue elsewhere, except mainly slight \nnearshore Colombia. Looking ahead, seas may build to rough in SW\nswell S of the Equator by the end of the week.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Tropical \nStorm Vance.\nHigh pressure covers the area generally N of about 18N and W of \n110W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are from 14N to 18N \nbetween 120W and 130W between the high and northward troughing \nalong the monsoon trough near 130W. A frontal system is just WNW \nof 30N140W with fresh to locally strong SE to S winds and rough \nseas just SE of 30N140W. Winds are moderate or weaker with \nmoderate seas across the remainder of the open waters away from \nVance.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Vance will move to 15.6N 105.9W\nthis afternoon, 16.1N 106.9W Tue morning, 17.2N 107.6W Tue \nafternoon, 18.5N 108.0W Wed morning, 19.9N 108.1W Wed afternoon, \nand 21.4N 108.0W Thu morning. Vance will weaken to a remnant low \nover 23.2N 107.9W early Fri. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker \nwinds and moderate seas will persist into around the middle part \nof the week. Swells generated from a frontal system just WNW of \nthe discussion waters will support with fresh to locally strong \nSE to S winds over the far NW portion of the area into the early \npart of the week. These conditions will spread slightly eastward \nover the waters roughly N of about 28N and W of 138W through Wed.\nMeanwhile, a new set of southerly swell is expected to spread \ninto the S-central waters later today, building seas to a rough \nstate over the waters S of about 05N between 105W and 130W by \nlate Wed night. These seas are expected to linger through at \nleast Fri night.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1222028578969026563", "issued": "2026-10-26T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1222028578969026563"}