{"msg": "167\nAXNT20 KNHC 260427\nTWDAT\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Mon Oct 26 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0400 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nAtlantic Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high\npressure building southward through the Mid-Atlantic U.S. and low\npressure south of Bermuda and an associated stationary front\nextending into the Bahamas will continue to induce widespread\nstrong to gale-froce NE to E winds and very rough seas to 20 ft\ninto Mon morning. Gales will be present N of 27N between 62W and\n72W, with a broader area of very rough seas N of 24N and W of 60W.\nThe low pressure will lift NE of the region on Mon, and gales will\nend, but with the stationary front remaining in place through\nmid-week, strong winds and very rough seas will likely continue\nthrough at least Wed night, mainly north of the frontal boundary.\nMariners are urged to remain alert to these hazardous marine \nconditions, and take the necessary precautions to avoid these \naffected areas. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast \nissued by the National Hurricane Center at website \nhttps:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. \nHeavy Rainfall in the Northern Caribbean: Deep-layer troughing \nextending southward through the Bahamas into the NW Caribbean \ncombined with abundant tropical moisture will support periods of \nheavy rainfall over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, the southern \nBahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands into Mon night. The \ntrough will gradually shift N and E early this week, while \nweakening. Very heavy rainfall will bring a potential for \ndangerous and life-threatening flash flooding, particularly over \nportion of center Cuba and Haiti. Please refer to your local \nweather services and the International Desk at the Weather \nPrediction Center for more information.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from 15N17W southwestward to \n06N31W. The ITCZ axis extends from 07N45W to 09N60W. Scattered \nmoderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 22W and 27W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nHigh pressure building in from the Mid-Atlantic U.S. is supporting\nfresh to strong NE winds through the eastern basin, with gentle to\nmoderate NE winds in the western Gulf. Rough seas, locally to 12 \nft, are in the eastern Gulf, with moderate seas in the west. \nFor the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a 1033 mb \nhigh pressure system over the Mid-Atlantic states and a stationary\nfront that extends into the Bahamas supports fresh to locally \nnear gale-force NE-E winds and rough seas over the E Gulf waters, \nincluding the Florida Straits. This weather pattern will persist \ninto mid- week, followed by diminishing winds and seas into next \nweekend. Elsewhere, gentle to locally fresh easterly winds and \nmoderate seas will prevail during much of the workweek.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nSee Special Features section above for information on heavy\nrainfall over eastern Cuba and Hispaniola early this week. \nA 1009 mb low pressure is centered over far eastern Cuba near\n20N75W, with a surface trough extending southward from it to\naround 15N78W. A broad area of scattered moderate to isolated\nstrong convection extends N of 15N between 71W and 79W, impacting\nboth the Windward Passages and nearshore waters of Haiti. Moderate\nto fresh NW winds dominate the western basin, with moderate to\nfresh trades in the east. Seas basinwide are moderate, peaking\naround 7 ft in the Yucatan Channel.\nFor the forecast, a deep trough over the Bahamas and NW Caribbean\nwill shift very slowly eastward through Tue and support scattered\nto numerous showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean \nand Windward Passage. Meanwhile, a broad surface trough extends \nfrom the central Bahamas southward to a 1009 mb low near E Cuba, \ncontinuing to the central Caribbean, and will drift eastward \nthrough Tue. Strong high pressure across the eastern U.S. will \ncontinue to build southward across Florida and the Gulf of America\nthrough early next week, leading to moderate to fresh N winds and\nmoderate seas across the western Caribbean W of the trough \nthrough late Tue. Expect rough seas in large N swell across the \nYucatan Channel late tonight through early Tue. Otherwise, \nmoderate to fresh E-SE winds in the E Caribbean will diminish to \ngentle to moderate speeds by Mon evening. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information\nabout a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic, and on heavy\nrainfall expected for the Turks and Caicos Islands and \nHispaniola.\nTo the south of the gale-related low pressure and stationary\nfront described in the Special Features section, a pair of \ntroughs reside. One extends southward from 25N73W to far eastern\nCuba and other stretches from 29N72W to Hispaniola. A broad area\nof numerous moderate convection encompasses the Bahamas, Turks \nand Caicos, and surrounding waters. To the east of the troughs,\nmoderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas extend E of 50W. \nOtherwise, the Azores high pressure ridge dominates the remainder\nAtlantic subtropical waters, providing mainly moderate or weaker \nwinds and moderate seas, except for fresh funneling through the \nCanary and Cabo Verde Islands.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a tight pressure gradient between a\nrobust ridge over the NW Atlantic and the eastern United States \nand a stationary front from near Bermuda to the Bahamas support a \nlarge area of strong to gale-force NE to E winds across the \nwestern and central offshore zones, along and N of a stationary \nfront. Very rough seas to 20 ft are expected N of the front \nbetween 66W and 74W. The portion of the front E of 70W is expected\nto begin to lift northward tonight through Mon morning, and stall\nfrom near Bermuda to W Cuba Mon and Mon night, then drift \nsoutheastward Tue through Wed night as a cold front. The \naforementioned ridge will shift slowly eastward and into the N \nAtlantic during this time. The gale-force winds will diminish \novernight, however, fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough \nseas in NE swell to the north of the front will persist through \nthe period. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous \nmarine conditions, and take the necessary precautions to avoid \nthese affected areas. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1221979201690566659", "issued": "2026-10-26T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1221979201690566659"}