{"msg": "295\nAXPZ20 KNHC 260305\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Mon Oct 26 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0100 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Vance is centered near 15.0N 104.7W at 26/0300\nUTC, moving moving northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central \npressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with \ngusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are currently around 24-25 ft or 7.5 m.\nNumerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm in\nthe NE semicircle and 45 nm in the SW semicircle. Vance is moving\ntoward the northwest. A west-northwestward motion at a slower \nforward speed is expected over the next couple of days, followed \nby a turn toward the north around midweek. Gradual weakening is \nforecast for the next several days. Periods of heavy rainfall \nassociated with Vance will impact portions of western Mexico \nduring much of this week. This rainfall may produce flooding and \nmudslides across Colima, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, along with western\nportions of Michoac\u00e1n, Jalisco, and Durango, especially in areas\nalong steep terrain. Swells generated by Vance will affect \nportions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico during \nthe next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-\nthreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult \nproducts from your local weather office. Please read the latest \nHIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at \nwebsite - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the \nlatest Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nGulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient over \nMexico from strong high pressure ridging is currently supporting \nnorth to northeast winds of 25 to 35 kt in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.\nThese winds are expected to increase to 40 kt overnight, then \ndiminish to just below gale-force by early Mon afternoon as the \ngradient slackens some. Resultant locally rough seas will slowly\nsubside through Tue. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast \nissued by the National Hurricane Center at website \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further \ndetails.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from near the N coast of Colombia\nat 10N75W to across Panama to 07.5N88W to SE of Tropical Storm\nVance near 09N100W, then resumes well SW of Vance at 08N111W to\n09N128W to 1007 mb low pressure near 08N130W to 05N140W.\nScattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N\nto 13N between 77W and 103W. Isolated to widely scattered\nmoderate convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 128W and\n134W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nTropical Storm Vance, and on a Gale Warning for the Gulf of \nTehuantepec. \nAside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Tropical Storm Vance, \nwinds are moderate or weaker. Seas are moderate away from Vance \nand the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, except slight in the Gulf of \nCalifornia away from the entrance where they are higher due to SE\nswells moving in from Vance.\nFor the forecast, Vance will move to 15.3N 105.3W Mon morning,\n15.7N 106.0W Mon evening, 16.5N 106.8W Tue morning, 17.4N 107.3W\nTue evening, 18.5N 107.6W Wed morning, and 20.0N 107.7W Wed \nevening. Vance will become post-tropical as it moves to 22.0N \n107.8W late Thu. Elsewhere, N-NE gale force gap winds in the \nGulf of Tehuantepec are expected to pulse to 40 kt overnight\ntonight, then diminish to just below gale force by early Mon \nafternoon as the gradient slackens some. Resultant seas will \nslowly subside through Tue. These winds will then pulse at fresh\nto strong speeds through Thu night. Moderate to fresh winds will\npulse nearshore Baja California Norte through Tue evening. \nModerate or weaker winds along with moderate seas will prevail \nelsewhere away from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, except \nmainly slight seas in the Gulf of California.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas are over and \ndownstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to fresh NW winds are \nin the Gulf of Panama. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere \nwith moderate seas, except slight seas nearshore Colombia.\nFor the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse in\nthe Gulf of Papagayo at times through the week, except fresh to\nstrong Mon morning. Moderate to fresh NW winds will pulse in the\nGulf of Panama through Mon evening, then again starting late Wed\nnight. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas \nwill continue elsewhere, except mainly slight nearshore Colombia.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Special Features section above for information on recently \ndowngraded Tropical Storm Vance.\nHigh pressure covers the area generally N of about 19N and W of \n120W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are from 14N to 19N between\n120W and 130W between the high and 1007 mb low pressure along the\nmonsoon trough near 08N130W with a trough extending from the high\nto the NNE at 14N129W. A frontal system is just WNW of 30N140W\nwith moderate to fresh SE winds and rough seas just SE of\n30N140W. Winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas across\nthe remainder of the open waters away from Vance.\nFor the forecast, Vance will move to 15.3N 105.3W Mon morning,\n15.7N 106.0W Mon evening, 16.5N 106.8W Tue morning, 17.4N 107.3W\nTue evening, 18.5N 107.6W Wed morning, and 20.0N 107.7W Wed \nevening. Vance will become post-tropical as it moves to 22.0N \n107.8W late Thu. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and \nmoderate seas will persist into around the middle part of the \nweek. Swells generated from a frontal system just WNW of the \ndiscussion waters will support with fresh SE to S winds over the\nfar NW portion of the area into the early part of the week. A \ntightening pressure gradient related to the frontal system will \nboost these winds to fresh to strong speeds on Tue, over the \nwaters roughly N of about 28N and W of 138W. Seas of 7 to 9 ft \nare expected with these winds. Meanwhile, a new set of southerly\nswell is expected to spread into the S-central waters starting \nlate on Mon, building seas to a rough state over the waters S of\nabout 05N between 105W and 130W by late Wed night. These seas \nare expected to linger through at least Thu night.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1221963074986606595", "issued": "2026-10-26T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1221963074986606595"}