{"msg": "407\nAXNT20 KNHC 260014\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Mon Oct 26 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2345 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nAtlantic Gale Warning: A tightening pressure gradient will \ncontinue to develop across the western and central offshore zones\ntonight as strong high pressure builds southward over the \nwestern Atlantic, and low pressure deepens ENE of the central \nBahamas along a stationary front that extends from 30N58W to \n31N61W to low pressure near 29N66W 1010 mb, and continues to \n28N70W to 26N75W and to 24N80.5W.  This setup is inducing \nwidespread strong to gale- force NE to E winds and very rough \nseas building to 20 ft. Gale-force winds to 40 kt prevail north \nof 27N between 61.5N and 72.5W. Strong to gale winds north of \n27N between 61W and 80W will continue through early Mon morning.\nThe portion of the front east of 70W is expected to begin to \nlift northward tonight through Mon morning, and stall from near \nBermuda to W Cuba Mon and Mon night, then drift southeastward Tue\nthrough Wed night. Strong high pressure across the eastern U.S. \nwill shift slowly eastward and across the waters east of northern\nFlorida during this time, and maintain fresh to strong winds and\nrough to very rough seas in NE swell to the north of the front \nthrough the period. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these \nhazardous marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions \nto avoid these affected areas. Please, see the latest NWS High \nSeas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website \nhttps:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. \nHeavy Rainfall in the Northern Caribbean: A mid to upper-level \ntrough over Florida, the northwestern Caribbean and the Bahamas \ncombined with abundant tropical moisture will support periods of \nheavy rain over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the southern \nBahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through Mon. Latest \nmodel guidance indicates that the trough will begin to weaken \nand meander northward. The main areas that are expected to be \nimpacted by abundant tropical moisture and heavy rainfall will \nthen shift to north and east of Cuba over the southern Bahamas, \nTurks and Caicos, the Windward Passage and Hispaniola. The heavy \nrainfall will raise concerns for dangerous and life-threatening \nflash flooding. Please refer to your local weather services and \nthe International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more \ninformation.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near \n15N17W southwestward to 07N31W. The ITCZ axis extends from 07N45W \nto 10N60W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of\n06N22N and within 60 nm 10N27W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA strong ridge extends over the eastern United States and into \nthe central Gulf, and is supporting fresh to strong northeast to\neast winds across most of the eastern Gulf, and gentle to \nmoderate winds across the western Gulf along with seas of 6 to 9 \nft. Elsewhere, mainly moderate winds prevail along seas 4 to 6 \nft.\nFor the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between the high \npressure and a stationary front across the NW Bahamas and into \nthe eastern Florida Straits will maintain fresh to strong NE \nwinds and rough seas over the eastern Gulf, including the Straits \nof Florida through Wed. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information\nabout the potential for heavy rainfall over eastern Cuba, \nHispaniola, and Jamaica, the Turks and Caicos and locations farther\neast through the early part of the upcoming week.\nA couple of troughs extend southward from the western Atlantic\ninto the central Caribbean: one along 71W north of 16N, and the \nother along 76.5W north 16N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms \nare between these troughs north of 16N. This activity is being \nsupported by upper-level divergence present east of a broad mid to \nupper-level trough that covers the western Caribbean. Trades across \nthe northwestern and southwestern Caribbean are of moderate to fresh \nspeeds while northeast to east winds of similar speeds are east of \n74W. Seas across the basin are mostly slight to moderate.\nFor the forecast, the aforementioned mid to upper-level trough \nwill slowly shift eastward through Tue and support scattered to \nnumerous showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean and\nWindward Passage. Meanwhile, a broad surface trough extends from\nthe central Bahamas southward across eastern Cuba to a 1009 mb \nlow north of Jamaica near 19.5N76.5W, continuing to the SW \nCaribbean, and will drift eastward through Tue. Strong high \npressure across the eastern U.S. will continue to build southward\nacross Florida and the Gulf of America through early next week, \nleading to moderate to fresh N winds and moderate seas across the\nwestern Caribbean W of the trough through late Tue. Expect rough\nseas in large N swell across the Yucatan Channel late tonight \nthrough early Tue. Otherwise, moderate to fresh east to southeast\nwinds in the E Caribbean will diminish to gentle to moderate \nspeeds by Mon evening. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information\nabout a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic, and on heavy\nrainfall expected for the southern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos \nIslands, the Windward Passage, and Hispaniola.\nA stationary front extends from near 30N58W to 31N61W to low \npressure near 29N66W 1010 mb, and continues to 28N70W to 26N75W and \nto 24N80.5W. A trough then extends southward from this low to the \nHispaniola adjacent waters. Another trough extends from eastern Cuba \nto a 1009 mb low just south of eastern Cuba near 19N76W. These \nfeatures are supporting scattered moderate convection north of 20N \nand between 58W and 74W. Widespread strong to gale-force winds and \nrough seas are north of the front and along the trough or across \nmany of the offshores north of about of 27N. Otherwise, the Azores \nhigh pressure ridge dominates the remainder Atlantic subtropical \nwaters, providing mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, \nexcept for fresh to strong winds funneling through the Canary \nIslands and west of Cape Verde where rough seas are ongoing.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a large area of strong to gale- \nforce NE to E winds will continue through near midnight across \nthe western and central offshore zones, along and N of a \nstationary front extending from 31N60W to the NW Bahamas near \n25N78W to the eastern Straits of Florida. Very rough seas to 20 \nft are expected N of the front between 67W and 74W. The portion \nof the front E of 70W is expected to begin to lift northward \ntonight through Mon morning, and stall from near Bermuda to W \nCuba Mon and Mon night, then drift southeastward Tue through Wed \nnight. Strong high pressure across the eastern U.S. will shift \nslowly eastward and into the NW Atlantic during this time, and \nmaintain fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas in NE\nswell to the north of the front through the period. Mariners are\nurged to remain alert to these hazardous marine conditions, and \ntake the necessary precautions to avoid these affected areas.\n\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1221929385923510275", "issued": "2026-10-26T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1221929385923510275"}