{"msg": "198\nAXPZ20 KNHC 252212 CCA\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion...Corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Sun Oct 25 2026\nCorrected Special Features section\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2145 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...Corrected\nRecently downgraded Tropical Storm Vance is centered near 14.9N \n104.2W, or about 270 nm WSW of Acapulco, Mexico  at 25/2100 UTC, \nmoving north-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure \nis 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 \nkt. Vertical wind shear and relatively dry mid-level air are \nnegatively impacting Vance's structure. Satellite imagery shows \nnumerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 15N to 17N \nbetween 103W and 106W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm \nof a line from 14N103W to 14N104W and to 14N106W. A northwestward to \nwest-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected over \nthe next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the north around \nthe middle portion of the week. Vance is expected to produce 2 to 4 \ninches of rain, with isolated higher totals of 7 inches possible, \nacross Colima, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, along with western portions of \nMichoac\u00e1n, Jalisco, and Durango. This rainfall may produce flooding \nand mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain. Swell \ngenerated by Vance will affect portions of the coast of southern and \nsouthwestern Mexico during the next several days. These swells are \nlikely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. \nPlease consult products from your local weather office. Please read \nthe latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane \nCenter at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml \nand the latest Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nGulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient over \nMexico from strong high pressure ridging is currently supporting \nnorth to northeast winds of 25 to 30 kt in the Gulf of Tehuantepec \nas seen in a recent Ascat data pass. These winds are expected to \npulse back up to gale-force tonight, then diminish to just below \ngale-force by early Mon afternoon as the gradient slackens some. \nResultant seas will slowly subside through Tue. Please read the \nlatest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at \nwebsite https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further \ndetails.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from the southwestern Caribbean\nSea near 12N76W southwestward to across central Panama, and\ncontinues to 08N82W to 05N93W and to 09N99W. It resumes well \nto the SW of of Vance at 08N113W to 06N123W to low pressure \nnear 08N131W 1011 mb and to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to \nisolated strong convection is within 120 nm either side of the\ntrough between 93W-98W, and within 60 nm north of the trough \nbetween 87W-93W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm \nnorth of the trough between 138W-140W, and also within 60 nm\nsouth of the trough between 128W-130W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nrecently downgraded Tropical Storm Vance, and on a Gale warning \nfor the Gulf of Tehuantepec.\nAside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and  Tropical Storm Vance, winds \nare moderate or weaker as seen on recent ASCAT data passes. Seas are \nmoderate away from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, except \nslight in the Gulf of California away from the entrance.\nFor the forecast, recently downgraded Tropical Storm Vance will \nmaintain intensity as it moves to near 15.0N 104.8W late tonight,\nthen begin to weaken as it moves to near 15.4N 105.5W Mon \nafternoon with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, to near\n16.0N 106.2W late Mon night, to near 16.9N 106.6W Tue afternoon \nwith maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt, to near 17.7N \n107.0W late Tue night and to near 19.0N 107.2W Wed afternoon. Vance \nis forecast to become post-tropical as it moves near to near 21.0N \n107.4W Thu afternoon with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. \nElsewhere, north to northeast near gale gap winds in the Gulf of \nTehuantepec are expected to pulse back up to gale-force tonight, \nthen diminish to just below gale- force by early Mon afternoon as \nthe gradient slackens some. Resultant seas will slowly subside \nthrough Tue. These winds will pulse at fresh to strong speeds \nthrough most of the week. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse \nnearshore Baja California Norte through Tue evening. Moderate or \nweaker winds along with moderate seas will prevail elsewhere away \nfrom Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, except mainly slight seas in \nthe Gulf of California.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas are \nover and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Winds are moderate or\nweaker elsewhere with moderate seas, except slight seas nearshore\nColombia.\nFor the forecast, fresh northeast to east winds will pulse tonight \nin the Papagayo region and again on Wed night, then be at gentle to \nmoderate speeds during the rest of the period. Otherwise, moderate \nor weaker winds and moderate seas will continue elsewhere.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Special Features section above for information on recently \ndowngraded Tropical Storm Vance.\nHigh pressure covers the area generally north of about 18N and \nwest of 120W. Latest Ascat data passes captured an area of \nfresh northeast trades from 14N to 19N between 120W and 130W.\nSeas with these winds are about 5 to 6 ft. Winds are mainly \nmoderate or weaker elsewhere over this part of the discussion \narea along with mostly moderate seas per latest altimeter data \npasses.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Vance will maintain intensity as it \nmoves to near 15.0N 104.8W late tonight, then begin to weaken as it \nmoves to near 15.4N 105.5W Mon afternoon with maximum sustained \nwinds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, to near 16.0N 106.2W late Mon night, to \nnear 16.9N 106.6W Tue afternoon with maximum sustained winds 45 kt \ngusts 55 kt, to near 17.7N 107.0W late Tue night and to near 19.0N \n107.2W Wed afternoon. Vance is forecast to become post- tropical as \nit moves near to near 21.0N 107.4W Thu afternoon with maximum \nsustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker \nwinds and moderate seas will persist into around the middle part of \nthe week. Swell generated from a frontal system just northwest of \nthe discussion waters is expected to usher in rough seas to the SE \nof 30N140W beginning tonight along with fresh southeast to south \nwinds over the far NW portion of the area. A tightening pressure \ngradient related to the frontal system will boost these winds to \nfresh to strong speeds on Tue, over the waters roughly north of \nabout 28N and west of 138W. Seas of 7 to 9 ft are expected with \nthese winds. Looking ahead, a new set of southerly swell is expected \nto spread into the south-central waters starting late on Mon, \nbuilding seas to a rough state over the waters south of about 05N \nbetween 105W and 130W by late Wed night. These seas are expected to \nlinger through at least Thu night.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1221905456183345155", "issued": "2026-10-25T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1221905456183345155"}