{"msg": "066\nAXNT20 KNHC 251658\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Sun Oct 25 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1650 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nAtlantic Gale Warning: A tightening pressure gradient will \ncontinue to develop across the western and central offshore zones \ntoday through this evening as strong high pressure builds \nsouthward over the western Atlantic, and low pressure deepens ENE \nof the central Bahamas along a stationary front extending from 31N56W to \nthe NW Bahamas near 27N77W to the Florida Straits. This setup is \ninducing widespread strong to gale- force NE to E winds and very \nrough seas building to 20 ft. Gale- force winds to 40 kt prevail north\nof 27N between 61.5N and 72.5W according to the latest wind- \nderived satellite. Strong to gale winds north of 27N between 61W \nand 80W will prevail today through early Mon morning. The portion\nof the front E of 70W is expected to begin to lift northward \ntonight through Mon morning, and stall from near Bermuda to W Cuba\nMon and Mon night, then drift southeastward Tue through Wed \nnight. Strong high pressure across the eastern U.S. will shift \nslowly eastward and into the NW Atlantic during this time, and \nmaintain fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas in NE \nswell to the north of the front through the period. Mariners are \nurged to remain alert to these dangerous marine conditions, and \ntake the necessary precautions to avoid these affected areas. \nPlease, see the latest NWS High Seas \nForecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website \nhttps:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. \nHeavy Rainfall in the Northern Caribbean: A mid to upper level \ntrough over Florida, the NW Caribbean and the Bahamas combined \nwith abundant tropical moisture will support periods of heavy rain\nover eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the southern Bahamas, and\nthe Turks and Caicos Islands through Mon. Today, model guidance \nindicates that the trough will begin to weaken and meander \nnorthward. The main areas that are expected to be impacted by \nabundant tropical moisture and heavy rainfall will then shift to \nnorth and east of Cuba over the southern Bahamas, Turks and \nCaicos, the Windward Passage and Hispaniola. The heavy rainfall \nwill raise concerns for dangerous and life-threatening flash \nflooding. Please refer to your local weather services and the \nInternational Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more \ninformation.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near \n16N17W southwestward to 09N34W. The ITCZ extends from 09N44W to \n11N59W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N to 25N \nand east of 40W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA strong ridge extends over most of the eastern United States and\ninto the central Gulf, supporting fresh to strong winds east of\n90W along with seas 6 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, mainly moderate winds \nprevail along seas 4 to 6 ft.\nFor the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between the high \npressure and a stationary front across the NW Bahamas and into the\neastern Florida Straits will maintain fresh to strong NE winds \nand rough seas over the eastern Gulf, including the Florida \nStraits, through Wed.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information\nabout the potential for heavy rainfall over eastern Cuba, \nHispaniola, and Jamaica, the Turks and Caicos and locations farther\neast through the early part of the upcoming week.\nA broad surface trough over the central Bahamas extends southward\nacross E Cuba to a 1010 mb low NE of Jamaica near 19.5N76W. \nNumerous moderate to strong convection is along and ahead of this\nlow under an area of upper level diffluence that covers \nHispaniola and adjacent waters. Gust to gale force winds and rough\nseas are likely within this area of convection between eastern \nCuba and Jamaica and south of Hispaniola between 69W and 72.5W. \nWinds over the NW and portions of SW Caribbean are moderate to \nfresh from the N while ENE winds of the same speeds are E of 74W. \nSeas over these regions are moderate and slight between 74W and \n78W where winds are light to gentle and variable due to the low \npressure. \nFor the forecast, a middle to upper level trough over Florida, \nthe Bahamas and NW Caribbean will shift very slowly eastward \nthrough Tue and support scattered to numerous showers and \nthunderstorms over the central Caribbean and Windward Passage. \nMeanwhile, a broad surface trough over the central Bahamas \nextending southward across E Cuba to a 1010 mb low N of Jamaica \nnear 19.5N76.5W, continuing to the SW Caribbean, will drift \neastward through Tue. Strong high pressure across the eastern U.S.\nwill continue to build southward across Florida and the Gulf of \nAmerica through early next week, leading to moderate to fresh N \nwinds and moderate seas across the western Caribbean W of the \ntrough through late Tue. Expect rough seas in large N swell across\nthe Yucatan Channel late tonight through early Tue. Otherwise, \nmoderate to fresh E-SE winds in the E Caribbean will diminish to \ngentle to moderate speeds by Mon evening. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information\nabout a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic, and on heavy\nrainfall expected for the southern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos \nIslands, the Windward Passage, and Hispaniola.\nA stationary front extends from 31N56W to the NW Bahamas near \n27N77W to the Florida Straits. Along the front, a 1010 mb low\npressure is near 28.5N66W. A surface trough then extends \nsouthward from this low to Hispaniola adjacent waters. These \nfeatures are supporting scattered moderate convection north of 20N\nand between 58W and 74W. Widespread strong to gale-force winds \nand rough seas are north of the front and along the trough or \nacross many of the offshores N of 27N. Otherwise, the Azores ridge\ndominates the remainder Atlantic subtropical waters, providing \nmainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, except for \nfresh to strong winds funneling through the Canary Islands and \nwest of Cape Verde where rough seas are ongoing.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, strong to gale-force NE to E winds \nwill continue through early tonight, across the western and \ncentral offshore zones, along and N of a stationary front \nextending from 31N56W to the NW Bahamas near 27N77W to the Florida\nStraits. Very rough seas to 20 ft are expected. The portion of \nthe front E of 70W is expected to begin to lift northward tonight \nthrough Mon morning, and stall from near Bermuda to W Cuba Mon and\nMon night, then drift southeastward Tue through Wed night. Strong\nhigh pressure across the eastern U.S. will shift slowly eastward \nand into the NW Atlantic during this time, and maintain fresh to \nstrong winds and rough to very rough seas in NE swell to the north\nof the front through the period. Mariners are urged to remain \nalert to these dangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary\nprecautions to avoid these affected areas. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1221843770012303363", "issued": "2026-10-25T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1221843770012303363"}