{"msg": "517\nAXPZ20 KNHC 251640 CCA\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion...Corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Sun Oct 25 2026\nCorrected Remainder of the Area section\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1545 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Vance is centered near 14.3N 103.8W, or roughly about\n440 nm SW of Acapulco, Mexico at 25/1500 UTC, moving northwest \nat 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum \nsustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are \nnear 30 ft or 9 m. Satellite imagery shows Vance is being \nimpacted by strong southwest to westerly shear as the low-level \ncenter is appearing to the southwest of the the ongoing \nconvection. This convection consists of the numerous moderate to \nisolated strong type within 180 nm in the NE semicircle and \nwithin 30 nm in the SW semicircle. A northwestward to west- \nnorthwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected over \nthe next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the north- \nnorthwest around midweek. Gradual weakening is forecast the\nnext several days. Vance is expected to produce 2 to 4\ninches of rain, with isolated higher totals of 7 inches possible,\nacross Colima and western portions of Michoac\u00e1n and Jalisco. This\nrainfall may produce flooding and mudslides, especially in areas\nalong steep terrain. Swell generated by Vance will affect \nportions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico during \nthe next several days. This swell is likely to cause life- \nthreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult \nproducts from your local weather office. Please consult products\nfrom your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS\nFORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nVance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nGulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between \nhigh pressure over Mexico and Hurricane Vance continues to \nsupport minimal gale force northerly gap winds funneling into \nthe Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will continue to pulse through Mon\nnight with a tight pressure gradient remaining in place, \npossibly diminishing briefly during afternoon hours. Please read \nthe latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane \nCenter at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml \nfor further details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from NW Colombia to across\nsouthern Panama and to0 8N78W to 09N88W and to 12.5N95W. It\nresumes to the SW of Vance at 09N108W, and continues to 06N119W\nto 08N130W and to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong \nconvection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 86W-89W,\nand within 60 nm south of the trough between 82W-83W. Scattered \nmoderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between \n92W-95W, also within 60 nm south of the trough between 112W-116W\nand within 30 nm of the trough between 127W-130W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Vance, and on a Gale warning for the Gulf of \nTehuantepec.\nAside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Hurricane Vance, winds\nare moderate or weaker as seen on recent ASCAT scatterometer \ndata. Seas are moderate away from Vance and the Gulf of \nTehuantepec region, except slight in the Gulf of California\naway from the entrance.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Vance will weaken to a tropical storm\nnear 14.5N 104.1W this evening with maximum sustained winds 60 kt \ngusts 75 kt, maintain intensity as it moves to near 15.0N 104.8W Mon \nmorning, and continue to weaken as it moves to near 15.3N 105.4W Mon \nevening with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, move to near \n16.1N 105.9W Tue morning, to near 17.0N 106.3W Tue evening with \nmaximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt and to near 18.0N 106.6W \nWed morning. Vance is forecast to become post-tropical as it nears \n19.5N 107.0W early on Thu with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts \n50 kt.ntensity as it moves to near 15.0N 104.8W Mon morning, then \nbegin to weaken as it moves to near 15.3N 105.4W Mon evening with \nmaximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, move to near 16.1N 105.9W \nTue morning, to near 17.0N 106.3W Tue evening with maximum sustained \nwinds 45 kt gusts 55 kt and to near 18.0N 106.6W Wed morning. Vance \nis forecast to become post-tropical as it nears 19.5N 107.0W early \non Thu with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Elsewhere, \nwinds will pulse to gale-force through Mon night over the Gulf of \nTehuantepec as a tight pressure gradient remains in place, then \npulsing to fresh to strong through at least the middle portion of \nthe week. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse nearshore Baja \nCalifornia Norte during the early part of the week. Moderate or \nweaker winds along with moderate seas will prevail elsewhere away \nfrom Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, except mainly slight seas in \nthe Gulf of California.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas are \nover and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Winds are moderate or\nweaker elsewhere with moderate seas, except slight seas nearshore\nColombia.\nFor the forecast, fresh northeast to east winds will pulse at night \nin the Papagayo region tonight and Wed night and be at gentle to \nmoderate speeds during the rest of the period. Otherwise, moderate \nor weaker winds and moderate seas will continue elsewhere.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected\nSee Special Features section above for information on Hurricane \nVance.\nHigh pressure covers the area north of about 19N. A swath of\nmoderate to fresh northeast to east winds is located from 14N to\n18N between 120W and 130W, and another one from 11N to 15N \nbetween 114W and 120W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across\nthe remainder of the waters along with moderate seas, except \nlocally rough S of the Equator and E of 105W.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Vance will weaken to a tropical storm \nnear 14.5N 104.1W this evening with maximum sustained winds 60 kt \ngusts 75 kt, maintain intensity as it moves to near 15.0N 104.8W Mon \nmorning, and continue to weaken as it moves to near 15.3N 105.4W Mon \nevening with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, to near \n16.1N 105.9W Tue morning, to near 17.0N 106.3W Tue evening with \nmaximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt and to near 18.0N 106.6W \nWed morning. Vance is forecast to become post-tropical as it nears \n19.5N 107.0W early on Thu with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts \n50 kt. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will \npersist. Swell generated from a frontal system just northwest of the \ndiscussion waters may bring rough seas to the SE of 30N140W starting \nthis afternoon and into the early part of the upcoming week along \nwith fresh southeast to south winds over the far NW portion of the \narea. A tightening pressure gradient related to the frontal system \nwill induce fresh to strong to southeast to south winds by early \nTue, roughly north of about 28N and west of 138W. Seas of 7 to 9 ft \nare expected with these winds. Looking ahead, a new set of southerly \nswell is expected to spread into the south- central waters by the \nmiddle of the week, building seas to a rough state over the waters \nsouth of about 05N between 105W and 125W by late Wed night, \nlingering through at least Thu night.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1221840201167667203", "issued": "2026-10-25T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1221840201167667203"}