{"id": "1221820394503143427", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-25T15:00:00Z", "msg": "285\nWTPZ42 KNHC 251459\nTCDEP2\n \nHurricane Vance Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026\n900 AM CST Sun Oct 25 2026\n \nStrong west-southwesterly wind shear is significantly impacting \nVance this morning. An earlier WSF-M pass indicated that the \nlow-level center was located farther southwest than previously \nestimated, and the initial position was adjusted accordingly. Deep \nconvection near the mid-level center continues to diminish, leaving \nthe partially exposed low-level center displaced to the \nsouthwest. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates continue to \ndecrease and now range from 49-65 kt. The initial intensity is set \nat a potentially generous 65 kt for this advisory.\n \nThe hurricane is moving north-northwestward around 6 kt between a \nmid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico and southern Texas and \na strong, closed upper-level low progressing across the southwestern \nUnited States. Vance is expected to move toward the northwest or \nwest-northwest at a slower forward speed over the next couple of \ndays as steering currents weaken. By midweek, Vance is forecast to \nturn toward the north-northwest then north as it weakens and becomes \nincreasingly steered by the low- to mid-level flow. The track \nforecast has been shifted to the left from the previous advisory to \naccount for the revised initial position and continued leftward \ntrends in the global and regional hurricane model guidance. However, \nthis track still remains on the eastern edge of the guidance and \nfurther westward adjustments may be necessary in future forecast \ncycles.\n \nDespite moving over slightly warmer waters during the next several \ndays, significant southwesterly to westerly wind shear and \nrelatively dry mid-level air are expected to lead to gradual \nweakening. The latest NHC forecast now calls for a faster rate of \nweakening through midweek than the previous advisory. By late this \nweek, simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF and GFS suggests \nthat Vance may struggle to sustain organized deep convection. The \nforecast now calls for Vance to become post-tropical by 96 h and \ndegenerate into a remnant low by 120 h.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Due to the large uncertainties in both the track and intensity\nforecasts, it is too early to determine what, if any, wind and storm\nsurge impacts Vance could bring to the coast of Mexico. Interests in\nsouthwestern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of\nVance.\n \n2. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with slow-moving Hurricane \nVance will impact the western coast of Mexico from Michoac\u00e1n to \nJalisco during much of this week. This rainfall may produce flooding \nand mudslides across Colima and western portions of Michoac\u00e1n and \nJalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  25/1500Z 14.3N 103.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  26/0000Z 14.5N 104.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  26/1200Z 15.0N 104.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  27/0000Z 15.3N 105.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  27/1200Z 16.1N 105.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 60H  28/0000Z 17.0N 106.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  28/1200Z 18.0N 106.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  29/1200Z 19.5N 107.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  30/1200Z 21.4N 107.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n \n"}