{"id": "1221819208268349443", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-10-25T15:00:00Z", "msg": "069\nWTPA43 PHFO 251453\nTCDCP3\n \nTropical Depression Three-C Discussion Number   1\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP032026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Sun Oct 25 2026\n \nThe system we have been monitoring near the International Date Line \nthat was recently designated CP94 has become better organized early \nthis morning. Showers and thunderstorm activity began to show signs \nof organization late yesterday, and an overnight scatterometer pass \nindicated that a small but well-defined circulation had formed. In \naddition, there was a WSF-M microwave pass at 0532 UTC, which \nshowed curved bands were present on the 37-GHz channel, especially \non the northern semi-circle of the system. Since that time, \nHimawari-9 and GOES-18 satellite imagery shows the system exhibiting \na bursting convective pattern close to or just to the north of the \nestimated center. Subjective Dvorak estimates from both JTWC and \nHonolulu were T1.5/25 kt. However, the earlier scatterometer pass \nalso showed a peak wind retrieval of 32 kt. Based on the system's \nstructural improvement on satellite imagery overnight, advisories \nare being initiated on Tropical Depression Three-C at this time. The \ninitial intensity is set at 30 kt, though this could be conservative \ngiven the earlier scatterometer data.\n \nThe depression's initial motion is east-northeastward, or 075/6 kt. \nThe system is currently embedded in deep-layer westerly flow, both \nfrom an equatorward low-level westerly wind burst, and an \nupper-level westerly flow from an approaching short-wave trough to \nthe north of the depression. These combined features should maintain \nthe system on an eastward track for the next several days. The \ninitial NHC track forecast blends the latest global model guidance \nfrom the GFS and ECMWF solutions. This track will take the tropical \ncyclone as a weakening system near Johnson Atoll in about 60-72 h. \nIt is worth noting there is a lot of spread in the along-track \ndirection, likely related to uncertainty in the vertical steering \ndepth the system will feel over the next few days, so this first \ntrack forecast is a little lower confidence than usual.\n \nThe depression could already be close to tropical storm intensity \ngiven the earlier scatterometer data, and environmental conditions \nappear mostly favorable for the next 12-24 h with deep-layer shear \nin the 5-15 kt range with plenty of warm water and deep-layer \nmoisture. However, the approaching mid-latitude trough to its north \nis expected to soon increase the westerly shear over the system, \nlikely limiting the intensity of the tropical cyclone. Thus, only \nsome slight intensification is shown over the next 12-24 h, with the \nstorm plateauing as a 35 kt tropical storm through the early part of \nthis week. By mid-week, SHIPS guidance shows this westerly shear \nincreasing above 40 kt, and most of the guidance responds by showing \nthe system quickly becoming separated from its deep convection as \nthe circulation becomes increasingly elongated. The initial NHC \nintensity forecast therefore shows the cyclone degenerating into a \nremnant low in about 72 h, and dissipating shortly thereafter. This \nforecast is in good agreement with the global model guidance. \n \nBased on the initial track and intensity forecast, no watches are \nrequired for Johnston Atoll at this time, though interests there \nshould continue to monitor the latest forecast updates related to \nthis system.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  25/1500Z 14.6N 179.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  26/0000Z 14.7N 178.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  26/1200Z 14.7N 177.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  27/0000Z 14.4N 175.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  27/1200Z 14.6N 173.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 60H  28/0000Z 15.5N 171.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  28/1200Z 16.5N 169.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}