{"msg": "886\nAXNT20 KNHC 251040\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Sun Oct 25 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1030 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nAtlantic Gale Warning: A tightening pressure gradient will \ncontinue to develop across the western and central offshore zones \ntoday through this evening as strong high pressure builds \nsouthward over the western Atlantic, and low pressure deepens ENE \nof the central Bahamas, and just S of a stationary front along \n27N-30N. This setup is expected to induce widespread strong to \nnear gale-force NE to E winds and very rough seas building to 20 \nft, with gale-force winds expected over much of the waters north \nof 27N and between 60W and 80W today through early Mon morning. \nThe front is expected to stall from near Bermuda to the central \nBahamas on Mon, with winds and seas diminishing very slowly \nthrough Thu. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous\nmarine conditions, and take the necessary precautions to avoid \nthese affected areas. \nPlease, see the latest NWS High Seas \nForecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website \nhttps:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. \nHeavy Rainfall in the Northern Caribbean: A mid to upper level \ntrough over Florida, the NW Caribbean and the Bahamas combined \nwith abundant tropical moisture will support periods of heavy rain\nover eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the southern Bahamas, and\nthe Turks and Caicos Islands through Mon. Today, model guidance \nindicates that the trough will begin to weaken and meander \nnorthward. The main areas that are expected to be impacted by \nabundant tropical moisture and heavy rainfall will then shift to \nnorth and east of Cuba over the southern Bahamas, Turks and \nCaicos, the Windward Passage and Hispaniola. The heavy rainfall \nwill raise concerns for dangerous and life-threatening flash \nflooding. Please refer to your local weather services and the \nInternational Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more \ninformation.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near \n14N16W southwestward to 07N27W. The ITCZ extends from 10N43W to \n10N60W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen \nfrom 04N to 25N between 20W-41W, and from 09N to 14N between \n56W-61W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA strong ridge extends over most of the eastern United States and\ninto the central Gulf, supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to\nE winds across most of the E Gulf region, except locally strong E\nof 86W. Moderate to fresh ENE winds are elsewhere. Moderate seas \nprevail, with locally rough seas offshore NW Florida. \nFor the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient between the high\npressure and a low pressure forecast to deepen near the central \nBahamas will bring fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas over \nthe eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits through early Wed.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information\nabout the potential for heavy rainfall over eastern Cuba, \nHispaniola, and Jamaica, the Turks and Caicos and locations farther\neast through the early part of the upcoming week.\nA broad surface trough over the central Bahamas extends southward\nacross E Cuba to a 1009 mb low E of Jamaica near 19N75W. Numerous\nmoderate to strong convection is ahead of this low under an area\nof upper level diffluence that covers Hispaniola and adjacent\nwaters. Gust to gale force winds and rough seas are likely within\nthis area of convection south of Hispaniola between 68W and 75W.\nWinds over the NW and portions of SW Caribbean are moderate to\nfresh from the NNW while ENE winds of the same speeds are E of\n72W. Seas over these regions are moderate and slight between 74W\nand 78W where winds are light to gentle and variable due to the\nlow pressure E of Jamaica.  \nFor the forecast, the mid to upper level trough over Florida, the\nNW Caribbean and the Bahamas will shift very slowly eastward \nthrough Mon and support scattered to numerous showers and \nthunderstorms over the central Caribbean and Windward Passage. \nThe broad surface trough over the central Bahamas that extends\nacross E Cuba to a 1009 mb low E of Jamaica will drift eastward \nthrough Tue. Strong high pressure across the eastern U.S. will \ncontinue to build southward across Florida and the Gulf of America\nthrough early next week, leading to moderate to fresh N winds and\nmoderate seas across the western Caribbean W of Jamaica through \nlate Tue. Expect rough seas in large N swell across the Yucatan \nChannel late tonight through early Tue. Otherwise, moderate to \nfresh ESE winds in the E Caribbean will diminish to gentle to \nmoderate speeds by Mon evening.\n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information\nabout a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic, and on heavy\nrainfall expected for the southern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos \nIslands, the Windward Passage, and Hispaniola.\nA stationary front extends from near 31N48W to 28N65W. There is a\n1013 mb low just E of the central Bahamas while earlier scatt data\nalso showed the presence of a stronger low of 1012 mb south of the\nfront near 26N65W. A surface trough then extends southward from \nthis low to Hispaniola adjacent waters. These features are\nsupporting scattered moderate convection across the Atlantic\noffshores, except S of 24N between 55W and 63W. Widespread strong\nto gale-force winds and rough seas are north of the front or\nacross many of the offshores N of 27N. Otherwise, the Azores \nridge dominates the remainder Atlantic subtropical waters, \nproviding mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas,\nexcept for strong winds funneling through the Canary Islands where\nrough seas are ongoing.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a tightening pressure gradient will\ncontinue to develop across the western and central offshore zones\ntoday through this evening as strong high pressure builds \nsouthward over the western Atlantic, and low pressure deepens ENE \nof the central Bahamas, and just S of a stationary front along \n27N-30N. This setup is expected to induce widespread strong to \nnear gale-force NE to E winds and very rough seas building to 20 \nft, with gale-force winds expected over much of the waters north \nof 27N and between 60W and 80W today through early Mon morning. \nThe front is expected to stall from near Bermuda to the central \nBahamas on Mon, with winds and seas diminishing very slowly \nthrough Thu. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1221769441557053443", "issued": "2026-10-25T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1221769441557053443"}