{"msg": "745\nAXPZ20 KNHC 250841\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Sun Oct 25 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0600 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Vance is centered near 14.3N 103.4W at 25/0900 UTC,\nmoving north-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with\ngusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are near 31 ft or 9.5 m. Numerous \nmoderate to strong convection is within 150 nm in the NE \nsemicircle and 75 nm in the SW semicircle. Vance is moving \ntoward the north-northwest. This slow north-northwest to \nnorthwest motion is expected to continue the next few days.\nGradual weakening is forecast the next couple of days. Periods \nof heavy rainfall associated with slow-moving Hurricane Vance \nwill impact the western coast of Mexico from Michoac\u00e1n to Jalisco\nduring much of this week. This rainfall may produce flooding and\nmudslides across Colima and western portions of Michoac\u00e1n and \nJalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain. Swells \ngenerated by Vance will affect portions of the coast of southern \nand southwestern Mexico the next several days. These swells are \nlikely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.\nPlease consult products from your local weather office. Please \nread the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National \nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nVance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nGulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between \nhigh pressure over Mexico and Hurricane Vance is supporting \nminimal gale force northerly gap winds funneling into the Gulf of\nTehuantepec. Winds will continue to pulse through Mon night with\na tight pressure gradient remaining in place, possibly \ndiminishing briefly during afternoon hours. Please read the \nlatest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center\nat website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for \nfurther details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from 13N74W in the Caribbean Sea\nto across Panama at 08N81W to 10N96W SE of Hurricane Vance. It \nresumes SW of Vance from 08N113W to 05N135W. The ITCZ extends\nfrom 05N135W to 07N140W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate \nto isolated strong convection is noted from 03.4S to 10N between \n77W and 85W, from 03N to 10N between 85W and 93W, from 03N to 15N\nbetween 93W and 98W, within 04N118W to 13N99W to 07N99W to \n02N118W to 04N118W, from 10N to 12N between 111W and 115W, and \nfrom 12N to 15N between 121W and 123W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Vance, and on a Gale warning for the Gulf of \nTehuantepec.\nAside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Hurricane Vance, winds\nare moderate or weaker as seen on recent ASCAT scatterometer \ndata. Seas are moderate away from Vance and the Gulf of \nTehuantepec region, except slight in the Gulf of California\naway from the entrance.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Vance will move to 14.8N 103.8W this\nafternoon, 15.4N 104.4W Mon morning, 15.8N 104.9W Mon afternoon,\nweaken to a tropical storm near 16.3N 105.5W Tue morning, 17.1N \n105.8W Tue afternoon, and 17.9N 106.0W Wed morning. Vance will \nchange little in intensity as it moves to 19.3N 106.5W early Thu.\n Elsewhere, winds will pulse to gale-force through Mon night \nover the Gulf of Tehuantepec as a tight pressure gradient remains\nin place, then pulsing to fresh to strong through at least the \nmiddle portion of the week. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse \nnearshore Baja California Norte during the early part of the \nweek. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas will \nprevail elsewhere away from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, \nexcept mainly slight seas in the Gulf of California.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas are \nover and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Winds are moderate or\nweaker elsewhere with moderate seas, except slight seas nearshore\nColombia.\nFor the forecast, fresh northeast to east winds will pulse \nat night in the Papagayo region. Moderate or weaker winds and \nmoderate seas will prevail elsewhere. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Hurricane \nVance.\nHigh pressure covers the area north of about 19N. A swath of\nmoderate to fresh NE-E winds is located from 14N to 19N between \n120W and 130W, and another one from 10N to 18N between 116W and \n130W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the remainder of\nthe waters along with moderate seas, except locally rough S of\nthe Equator and E of 105W.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Vance will move to 14.8N 103.8W this\nafternoon, 15.4N 104.4W Mon morning, 15.8N 104.9W Mon afternoon,\nweaken to a tropical storm near 16.3N 105.5W Tue morning, 17.1N \n105.8W Tue afternoon, and 17.9N 106.0W Wed morning. Vance will \nchange little in intensity as it moves to 19.3N 106.5W early Thu.\n Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will \npersist. Swell generated from a cold front and warm front just \nnorthwest of the discussion waters may bring rough seas to the SE\nof 30N140W starting this afternoon and into the early part of \nthe week. Looking ahead, a new set of southerly swell is expected\nto spread into the south-central waters by the middle of the \nweek, building seas to a rough state over the waters south of \nabout 056N between 105W and 130W by late Wed night, lingering \nthrough at least Thu night.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1221746049142325250", "issued": "2026-10-25T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1221746049142325250"}