{"msg": "843\nAXNT20 KNHC 250436\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Sun Oct 25 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0400 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nAtlantic Gale Warning: A tightening pressure gradient the \nnorthwestern zones into Sun, the result of strong high pressure \nbuilding southward over the western Atlantic and low pressure\ndeepening near the Bahamas along a nearly stationary front that\nextends NE toward Bermuda, will induce widespread gales. NE to E\nwinds of up to 40 kt and very rough seas will prevail for waters N\nof 27N between 60W and 76W through early Mon as the front remains\nin place, with conditions only slowly improving through mid-week. \nMariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine \nconditions, and take the necessary precautions to avoid the \naffected areas. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast \nissued by the National Hurricane Center at website \nhttps:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. \nHeavy Rainfall in the Northern Caribbean: A mid to upper- level \ntrough over the northern Caribbean combined with abundant tropical\nmoisture will support periods of heavy rain over eastern Cuba, \nHispaniola, Jamaica, the southern Bahamas, and the Turks and \nCaicos Islands through Mon. By Sun, model guidance indicates that \nthe trough will begin to weaken and meander northward. The main \nareas that are expected to be impacted by abundant tropical \nmoisture and heavy rainfall will then shift to north and east of \nCuba over the southern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, the Windward \nPassage and Hispaniola. The heavy rainfall will raise concerns for\ndangerous and life-threatening flash flooding. Please refer to \nyour local weather services and the International Desk at the \nWeather Prediction Center for more information.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near \n15N17W southwestward to 07N25W. The ITCZ extends from 08N38W to\n10N57W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen\nfrom 09N to 16N between 22W-35W, and from 06N to 12N between \n31W-40W. \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nHigh pressure building into the southeastern United States\ncontinues to support fresh to strong NE winds over the NE basin,\nwith moderate to fresh NE winds elsewhere. Moderate seas prevail,\nwith locally rough seas offshore Florida.  \nFor the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient between the high\npressure and low pressure forecast to deepen near the central \nBahamas will bring fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas over \nthe eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits tonight through \nearly Wed. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information\nabout the potential for heavy rainfall over eastern Cuba, \nHispaniola, and Jamaica, the Turks and Caicos and locations farther\neast through the early part of the upcoming week.\nA surface trough extends southward from 1013 mb low pressure\ncentered just E of the Bahamas across eastern Cuba and Jamaica.\nThe trough combined with upper-level diffluence east of a mid to\nupper-level trough axis over the NW Caribbean is support numerous\nstrong convection N of 15N between 71W and 76W, including waters\nnear Haiti and through the Windward Passage. Convection in the SW\nbasin in association with the East Pacific monsoon trough has\ndiurnally waned. Moderate to fresh NE winds encompass the NW\nCaribbean to the west of the aforementioned surface trough, and\nmoderate to locally fresh trades are present in the eastern \nbasin. Seas are generally moderate, except slight in the SW. The\nhighest seas are in the Yucatan Channel, where heights are\nestimated to 7 ft. \nFor the forecast, the mid to upper level trough over Florida, the\nNW Caribbean and the Bahamas will shift very slowly eastward \nthrough Mon and support scattered to numerous showers and \nthunderstorms over the north-central Caribbean and Windward \nPassage. Meanwhile, a broad surface trough over the central \nBahamas extending southward across Jamaica to 15N77W will drift \neastward through Tue. Strong high pressure across the eastern U.S.\nwill build southward across Florida and the Gulf of America \nthrough the weekend and lead to fresh N to NE winds and building \nseas across the western Caribbean W of the trough. Expect rough \nseas in large N swell across the Yucatan Channel Mon through Tue. \nLittle change is expected elsewhere. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information\nabout a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic, and on heavy\nrainfall expected for the southern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos \nIslands, the Windward Passage, and Hispaniola.\nA stationary front extends from near 31N52W to 29N69W to a 1013 mb\nlow pressure near 26N74W. A surface trough then extends southward\nfrom this low across eastern Cuba. Widespread strong to gale-force\nwinds and rough seas are north of the front, and to the east of\nthe surface trough, numerous thunderstorms are noted from the\nTurks and Caicos southward into the Windward Passage and nearshore\nwaters of Haiti. To the east, another surface trough extends from\n27N62W to just north of Dominican Republic. Numerous moderate to\nisolated strong convection is noted in association with this\nfeature from 20N to 30N between 60W and 70W. Away from the\nconvection strong S winds are E of the trough from 23N to 27N\nbetween 62W and 67W. Farther east, the Azores ridge dominates, \nproviding mainly moderate E winds and moderate seas. Strong winds \nare funneling through the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, a tightening pressure gradient will\ncontinue to develop across the northwestern zones tonight through\nSun as strong high pressure builds southward over the western \nAtlantic, and low pressure deepens near the central Bahamas, and \njust S of a stationary front along 28N-29N. This setup is expected\nto induce widespread strong to near gale-force NE to E winds and \nvery rough seas building to 20 ft, with gale-force winds expected \nover much of the waters north of 27N and between 60W and 76W early\nSun through Mon morning. The front is expected to stall from near\nBermuda to the central Bahamas on Mon, with winds and seas \ndiminishing very slowly through Thu. Mariners are urged to remain \nalert to these dangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary\nprecautions to avoid these affected areas. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1221697812289224706", "issued": "2026-10-25T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1221697812289224706"}