{"msg": "042\nAXPZ20 KNHC 250313\nTWDEP\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Sun Oct 25 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0040 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Vance is centered near 13.7N 103.4W at 25/0300 UTC,\nmoving north-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with\ngusts to 100 kt. Peak seas are near 33 ft or 10.0 m. Numerous \nmoderate to strong convection is within 120 nm of the center. \nVance is moving slowly toward the north-northwest, and this \ngeneral motion is expected to continue through Mon. Fluctuations\nin strength are likely through Mon, followed by steady weakening\nafter that. Heavy rainfall associated with slow-moving Hurricane\nVance will impact the western coast of Mexico from Michoac\u00e1n to \nJalisco during much of next week. This rainfall may produce life-\nthreatening flooding and mudslides across Colima and western \nportions of Michoac\u00e1n and Jalisco, especially in areas along \nsteep terrain. Swells generated by Vance will affect portions of\nthe coast of southern and southwestern Mexico into next week. \nThese swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip \ncurrent conditions. Please consult products from your local \nweather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued \nby the National Hurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nVance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nGulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between \nhigh pressure over Mexico and Hurricane Vance is supporting \nminimal gale force northerly gap winds funneling into the Gulf of\nTehuantepec. Winds will continue to pulse through likely Mon \nnight with a tight pressure gradient remaining in place, possibly\ndiminishing briefly during afternoon hours. Please read the \nlatest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center\nat website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for \nfurther details.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from 10.5N75W to SE of Vance near\n11N98W, then resumes SW of Vance from 07N113W to 05N136W.\nIsolated to widely scattered moderate to isolated strong \nconvection is noted from 00N to 09N between 77W and 92W. Similar \nconvection is noted in a band associated with Vance within \n03N117W to 13N110W to 15N101W to 17N101W to 14N94W to 11N95W to \n03N117W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Vance, and on a Gale warning for the Gulf of \nTehuantepec.\nAside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Vance, gentle to moderate\nnorthwest to north winds are west of the Baja California\npeninsula. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft in northwest \nswell. Gentle to moderate winds are across the remainder of the \nwaters, with slight seas in the Gulf of California, and moderate \nseas over the remainder of the waters outside the Vance and the \nGulf of Tehuantepec sea conditions.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Vance will move to 14.2N 103.7W Sun\nmorning, 15.1N 104.2W Sun evening, 15.6N 104.6W Mon morning, \n16.1N 104.8W Mon evening, 16.5N 105.0W Tue morning, and weaken to\na tropical storm near 17.3N 105.2W Tue evening. Vance will \nchange little in intensity as it moves to 18.4N 105.6W late Wed. \nElsewhere, winds are likely to pulse to gale-force through Mon \nnight over the Gulf of Tehuantepec as a tight pressure gradient \nremains in place, then pulsing to fresh to strong through at \nleast the middle portion of the upcoming week. Moderate or weaker\nwinds along with moderate seas will prevail elsewhere away from \nVance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, except mainly slight seas in \nthe Gulf of California going into the early part of the upcoming \nweek.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas are \nover and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Winds are moderate or\nweaker elsewhere with moderate seas, except slight seas nearshore\nColombia.\nFor the forecast, fresh northeast to east winds will pulse \ntonight and Sun night in the Papagayo region, then at gentle to \nmoderate speeds afterward. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate \nseas will prevail elsewhere. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Hurricane \nVance.\nHigh pressure covers the area north of about 19N. A swath of \nfresh northeast winds is located from 13N to 19N between 120W and\n130W, and another one from 10N to 18N between 130W and 136W. \nSeas with these winds are 6 to 7 ft. Northeast to east winds of \ngentle to moderate speeds are elsewhere north of about 08N along \nwith seas of 5 to 6 ft mainly due to a long-period north swell. \nLight to gentle southeast to south winds are south of 08N along \nwith seas of 5 to 6 ft also due to mainly a long-period north \nswell.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Vance will move to 14.2N 103.7W Sun\nmorning, 15.1N 104.2W Sun evening, 15.6N 104.6W Mon morning, \n16.1N 104.8W Mon evening, 16.5N 105.0W Tue morning, and weaken to\na tropical storm near 17.3N 105.2W Tue evening. Vance will \nchange little in intensity as it moves to 18.4N 105.6W late Wed. \nModerate or weaker winds and moderate seas will persist \nelsewhere. Swell generated from a cold front and warm front just \nnorthwest of the discussion waters may bring rough seas to the SE\nof 30N140W starting Sun afternoon and into early next week. \nLooking ahead, a new set of southerly swell is expected to spread\ninto the south-central waters by the middle of next week building\nseas to a rough state over the waters south of about 06N between\n107W and 130W by late Wed night.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1221681590349529090", "issued": "2026-10-25T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1221681590349529090"}