{"msg": "692\nAXNT20 KNHC 242342\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Sun Oct 25 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2330 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nAtlantic Gale Warning: A tightening pressure gradient will continue \nto develop across the northwestern zones tonight into Sun \nas strong high pressure builds southward over the western \nAtlantic, and low pressure deepens near the southern Bahamas \nsouthwest of a cold front along 30N moving slowly southeastward \ninto the area. This setup is expected to induce widespread fresh \nto near gale-force northeast to east winds and rough to very \nrough seas, with winds reaching gale-force over much of the \nwaters north of 27N and between 60W and 76W early Sun through \nearly on Mon. The front is expected to stall from near Bermuda \nto the central Bahamas by Mon, with winds and seas diminishing \nvery slowly through mid week. Mariners are urged to remain alert \nto these dangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary \nprecautions to avoid the affected areas. Please, see the latest \nNWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at\nwebsite https:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further \ndetails. \nHeavy Rainfall Event in the Northern Caribbean: A mid to upper- \nlevel trough over the northern Caribbean combined with abundant \ntropical moisture will support periods of heavy rain over eastern\nCuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the southern Bahamas, and the Turks \nand Caicos Islands through Mon. By Sun, model guidance indicates \nthat the trough will begin to weaken and meander northward. The \nmain areas that are expected to be impacted by abundant tropical\nmoisture and heavy rainfall will then shift to north and east of\nCuba over the southern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, the Windward \nPassage and Hispaniola. The heavy rainfall will raise concerns \nfor dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding. Please refer \nto your local weather services and the International Desk at the \nWeather Prediction Center for more information.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near \n15N17W southwestward to 07N24W, where it transitions to the ITCZ\nto 07N35W. It resumes near 09N41W to 10N51W and to 10N60W.\nScattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 09N \nto 16N between 22W-35W, and from 06N to 12N between 31W-40W. \nScattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ \nbetween 41W-50W.\n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nThe pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern \nUnited States that extends southwestward toward the central and \nwestern Gulf, and a trough that is east of the Bahamas is \nsustaining moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds basin-\nwide along with moderate seas, with the exception of slight seas \nover the NW Gulf coastal waters and offshore Veracruz. \nFor the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient between the \nhigh pressure and low pressure that is forecast to deepen near \nthe central Bahamas will bring fresh to strong NE winds and rough\nseas over the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits this \nevening through early Wed.\n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information\nabout the potential for heavy rainfall over eastern Cuba, \nHispaniola, and Jamaica, the Turks and Caicos and locations farther\neast through the early part of the upcoming week.\nA trough extends from a western Atlantic weak low pressure of 1014 \nmb near 25N74W south-southwestward to across eastern Cuba, and \ncontinues to across western Jamaica and to near 15N78W. The \ncombination of this feature with upper-level diffluence east of a \nmid to upper-level trough that extends from Florida to the \nnorthwestern Caribbean supports scattered moderate to strong \nconvection between Haiti and 14N between 72W and 76W. Scattered \nshowers and isolated thunderstorms are over the southwestern \nCaribbean mainly due to the eastern segment of the East Pacific \nmonsoon trough. The gradient along the SE periphery of the Gulf of \nAmerica high pressure is allowing for moderate to fresh north to \nnortheast winds to be over the northwest portion of the basin, \nincluding in the Yucatan Channel. Mostly moderate north winds are \nwithin about 60 nm offshore Nicaragua. Latest satellite altimeter \ndata indicates slight seas over the southwestern and northwestern \nCaribbean. The Azores High ridge extends to the central Atlantic \nsubtropical waters. Its related gradient is supporting moderate to \nfresh east to southeast winds east of about 75W, where seas are \nmaxing out to around 7 ft. \nFor the forecast, the aforementioned mid to upper level trough \nwill slowly shift eastward through Mon and support scattered to \nnumerous showers and thunderstorms over the north- central \nCaribbean and Windward Passage. Meanwhile, a broad surface trough\nover the central Bahamas extends southwestward across Jamaica \nand into the SW Caribbean, and will drift eastward through Tue. \nStrong high pressure across the eastern U.S. will build southward\nacross Florida and the Gulf of America through the weekend and \nlead to fresh north to northeast winds and building seas across \nthe western Caribbean W of the trough. Expect rough seas in large\nN swell across the Yucatan Channel Mon through Tue. Little \nchange is expected elsewhere. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information\nabout a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic, and a heavy rain\nexpected for the southern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos \nIslands, the Windward Passage and Hispaniola.\nA stationary front extends from near 31N56W to 29N69W and to near\n27N75W. Strong to near gale-froce northeast to east winds are \nnorth of the boundary along with seas of 9 to 14 ft in northeast\nswell. A trough extends from a 1014 mb low pressure near 25N74W \nsouth-southwestward to across eastern Cuba and continues farther\nsouth into the western Caribbean. Another trough extends from \nthe low northeastward to near 30N64W. Another trough is analyzed \nfrom near 28N60W to 20N69W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong \nconvection is noted from 20N to 31N between 62W and 73W. To the NE \nof this broad area of low pressure, a stationary front extends from \nnear 31N59W to 27N74W. The remainder subtropical Atlantic is under \nthe influence of the Azores high pressure ridge, which is supporting \nmoderate to fresh northeast to east winds east of about 55W, except \nlocally strong in the vicinity of the Canary Islands and near Cape \nVerde.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a tightening pressure gradient will\ncontinue to develop across the northwestern zones tonight \nthrough Sun as strong high pressure builds southward over the \nwestern Atlantic, and low pressure deepens near the central \nBahamas, and just S of a stationary front along 28N-29N. This \nsetup is expected to induce widespread strong to near gale-force \nnortheast to east winds and very rough seas building to 20 ft, \nwith gale-force winds expected over much of the waters north of \n27N and between 60W and 76W early Sun through Mon morning. The \nfront is expected to stall from near Bermuda to the central \nBahamas on Mon, with winds and seas diminishing very slowly \nthrough Thu. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these \ndangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions \nto avoid these affected areas. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1221640091711045634", "issued": "2026-10-24T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1221640091711045634"}