{"msg": "764\nAXPZ20 KNHC 242302 CCA\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion...Corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Sat Oct 24 2026\nCorrected Special Features section\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2145 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...Corrected\nHurricane Vance is centered near 13.3N 103.3W, or about 290 nm \nS of Acapulco, Mexico at 24/2100 UTC, moving north- northwest at\n5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum \nsustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas are \nnear 34 ft or 10.5 m. Satellite imagery shows that Vance has become \nless organized since earlier today. Its overall cloud pattern \nappears rather ragged on satellite imagery, with low-level clouds \nbecoming exposed in the SW quadrant. Numerous moderate to strong \nconvection is within 150 nm of the center in the N semicircle and \nwithin 60 nm of the center in the S semicircle. Vance is forecast to \nmaintain a slow motion toward the north-northwest through Mon. \nAdditional weakening is expected through Sun night. Some re-\nintensification is possible on Mon. Swell generated by Vance will \naffect portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico \nthis weekend and continue into next week. This swell is likely to \ncause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please \nconsult products from your local weather office. Please read the \nlatest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at \nwebsite - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the \nlatest Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nGulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between \nhigh pressure over Mexico and Hurricane Vance is supporting \nminimal gale force northerly gap winds funneling into the Gulf of\nTehuantepec. A recent satellite altimeter data pass revealed \nseas to just under 12 ft about 90 nm downstream of the Gulf, \nhowever, given the persistence of these gap winds across a large \nfetch area, seas of 12 ft are likely very near the swath sampled by \nthe altimeter pass. Winds will continue to pulse through likely Mon \nnight with a tight pressure gradient remaining in place, possibly \ndiminishing briefly during afternoon hours. Please read the latest \nHigh Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at \nwebsite https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further \ndetails.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough axis extends from along the coast of NW \nColombia southwestward to across southern Panama, and continues \nto 08N81W to 07N82W to 11N93.5W and to 12N98W. It resumes well \nto SW of Vance at 06N114W to 06N120W and to 02N140W. Scattered \nmoderate to isolated strong convection is from 01N to 08N \nbetween 81W-95W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of\na line from 06N107W to 05N110W to 04N115W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section above for information on\nHurricane Vance, and on a Gale warning for the Gulf of \nTehuantepec.\nAside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Vance, gentle to moderate\nnorthwest to north winds are west of the Baja California\npeninsula, reaching south to near 17N between 110W and 115W as \ndepicted in a recent satellite scatterometer data pass. Seas \nwith these winds are 5 to 7 ft in northwest swell. The latest\nsatellite scatterometer data pass also indicates gentle to\nmoderate winds across the remainder of the waters, with slight \nseas in the Gulf of California, and moderate seas over the remainder \nof the waters outside the Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec sea \nconditions.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Vance will move to near 14.0N 103.6W\nlate tonight with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, then\nchange little in intensity as it moves to near 14.9N 104.0W Sun \nafternoon, to near 15.6N 104.4W late Sun night, to near 16.0N \n104.6W Mon afternoon, to near 16.4N 104.8W late Mon night, and \nto near 17.0N 104.9W Tue afternoon. Vance is forecast to \nweaken to a tropical storm near Cabo Corrientes at a position close \nto 18.1N 105.2W Wed afternoon. Elsewhere, winds are likely to pulse \nto gale-force through Mon night over the Gulf of Tehuantepec as a \ntight pressure gradient remains in place, then pulsing to fresh to \nstrong through at least the middle portion of the upcoming week. \nModerate or weaker winds along with moderate seas will prevail \nelsewhere away from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, except mainly \nslight seas in the Gulf of California going into the early part of \nthe upcoming week.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas are \nover and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to locally \nfresh southerly winds and moderate to rough seas are between \nEcuador and the Galapagos Islands. Gentle winds and moderate seas\nprevail elsewhere across the discussion waters, except for \nslight seas near the coast of Colombia.\nFor the forecast, fresh northeast to east winds will pulse \ntonight and Sun night in the Papagayo region, then at gentle to \nmoderate speeds afterward. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate \nseas will prevail elsewhere. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nSee Special Features section above for information on Hurricane \nVance.\nHigh pressure covers the area north of about 19N and west of\n120W. A swath of fresh northeast winds is located from 13N to \n19N between 120W and 130W, and another one from 10N to 18N \nbetween 130W and 136W as noted in recent satellite scatterometer \ndata passes. Seas with these winds are 6 to 7 ft captured in a \nrecent satellite altimeter data pass and by a few Sofar Spotter \nbuoy observations. Northeast to east winds of gentle to moderate \nspeeds are elsewhere north of about 08N along with seas of 5 to \n6 ft mainly due to a long-period north swell. Light to gentle\nsoutheast to south winds are south of 08N along with seas of \n5 to 6 ft also due to mainly a long-period north swell.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Vance will move to near 14.0N 103.6W\nlate tonight with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, \nthen change little in intensity as it moves to near 14.9N 104.0W \nSun afternoon, to near 15.6N 104.4W late Sun night, to near 16.0N\n104.6W Mon afternoon, to near 16.4N 104.8W late Mon night, and \nto near 17.0N 104.9W Tue afternoon. Vance is forecast to weaken \nto a tropical storm near Cabo Corrientes at a position close to \n18.1N 105.2W Wed afternoon. Moderate or weaker winds and \nmoderate seas will persist elsewhere. Swell generated from a \ncold front and warm front just northwest of the discussion \nwaters may bring rough seas to the SE of 30N140W starting Sun \nafternoon and into early next week. A recent satellite scatterometer \ndata pass depicts fresh southeast winds over the northwest portion \nof the discussion waters while fresh to strong southeast to south \nwinds are just northwest of 30N140W, where the end point of a warm \nfront is located. Looking ahead, a new set of southerly swell is \nexpected to spread into the south-central waters by the middle of \nnext week building seas to a rough state over the waters south of \nabout 06N between 107W and 130W by late Wed night.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1221632226511716354", "issued": "2026-10-24T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1221632226511716354"}